What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 28th, 2017. Tonight we have a smaller slate of only five games. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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SG: Bradley Beal: (7,900) With starting PG John Wall out (knee), Beal took on a huge role Saturday night, scoring 26 points, seven assists, two blocks, two steals, and one rebound across 35 minutes in the loss to The Blazers. (45.75 DK points) In this game, he took 24 shots, including ten threes, on a very high 37.7% usage rate. He should continue to be a usage monster with Wall out for the next few weeks, as he has seen a team high 35.9% usage rate in 174 minutes he has played without Wall this year. Also in those minutes, he has seen his assist percentage jump 6.2%, to a solid 22.5%.
Saturday night’s game was the third contest Wall has missed this season and, over those three games, Beal is averaging a great 43.5 DK points per game. Tonight, Beal and The Wizards are on the road taking on The Wolves, who are the 5th worst rated defense in league this season. They have been their weakest inside, but they have also had trouble with SGs, currently sitting at a 3.53 opponent +/- for starting SGs. It is a slight concern with this game being on the road, but Vegas is expecting a pretty competitive game, only favoring The Wolves by 5.5 points. Beal’s price has gone up $500 since Saturday, but he is still under-priced at $7,900, for the role he has with Wall out of this offense. He is one of the better values of this five game slate and is a very hard player not to build around on Tuesday night.
PG: Tim Frazier: (4,100) Just like with Beal, Frazier is a must have value with Wall out of the lineup tonight. Frazier got another start at PG on Saturday night with The all-star sidelined, and he produced a solid 21.25 DK points in 28 minutes. As I said in Beal’s post, this was the third game that Wall has missed this year and Frazier is now averaging 21.25 DK points and 31.7 minutes in those three games. This match-up vs The Wolves is a decent one for him (1.73 opponent +/-) and it may end up being easier than usual if Wolves starting PG Jeff Teague is out with an Achilles injury.
If Teague misses this game, Frazier would be matched up PG Tyus Jones, who is a much better physical match-up for Frazier compared to the taller Teague. I mean look at Sunday’s Wolve’s game with Jones starting with Teague out, Jones got carved up by Suns’ starting PG Mike James for one of his best games of the season, at 42.75 DK points. Either way, Frazier is one of the best point per dollar plays of the night who needs to be considered in all formats. Oh, and back to Tyus Jones, if he does in fact start for Teague again, he would become a similar value to Frazier, and I would most likely end up using both guards in the same lineup. (42 DK points in 38 minutes last game with Teague out)
SG/SF: Wayne Ellington: (3,600) Ellington’s role has been growing off the bench for The Heat, with him averaging 25.2 minutes a game over his last five games, compared to his 18.6 average this season. He is averaging 22.5 DK points during this stretch, and has been even better in his last two games, averaging 28.6 DK points, while shooting 64% from three. In fact, in these two games, he has only taken shots from beyond the arc, and this is the perfect time for him to remain hot, going against The Cavs tonight.
I touch on this all the time, but this Cavs team really struggles against outside shooters like Ellington, allowing the third most three pointers made and the third most three pointers attempted per game this season. This is one of the best match-ups a player could ask for tonight, with this Cavs defense currently presenting a very high opponent +/- of 8.52 points. His price has barely adjusted for how productive he has been, and at only $3,600, Ellington is the best SF value of this five game slate.
PF/C: Kenneth Faried: (3,900) Faried got the start at PF Friday night with SF Will Barton moving back to the bench. The Manimal was great in the start, putting up 14 points, nine rebounds, one assist, and one block in 31 minutes, and really was a big part of this Nuggets team picking up a win over The Grizzlies. It’s unclear if he will remain in the starting five, and it somewhat depends on who The Jazz start at the four spot, but if I were to guess, I think Faried draws another start tonight after his game Friday. They need Barton’s scoring off the bench, and Faired is the more logical choice as a replacement starter for the injured Paul Milsap. (wrist)
This match-up vs The Jazz isn’t the best (-0.64 opponent +/-), but this defense has slipped without Rudy Gobert, and we just saw Faried have a productive night vs a decently tough defense in The Grizzlies. He is averaging 0.87 DK points per minute this season, and if he can see roughly 30 minutes again, Faried should easily outperform his current salary. I don’t recommend using him in cash games, because we won’t know if he is starting by lock with this being one of the last games of the night, but in GPPs, Faired seems like an excellent gamble that could be really set you apart in this small of a slate. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Tyus Jones (talked about him above, but again, he would become a core play if he starts for Teague. As of right now, Teague is a GTD), Kriss Dunn, Otto Porter (2.4% usage bump in the full games Wall has sat. Is averaging 36 DK points in those three games), Will Barton (he should start for Wilson Chandler and is a fine play everywhere), Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine (his minutes are all over the place, but he played 39 minutes last game and scored 45.25 DK points vs The Heat. Tonight he faces off against The Suns who are the fastest team in the league), Derrick Favors, Willie Cauley-Stein (at least 28 minutes in three straight games and is facing The Bucks who are a 7.3 opponent +/- for starting centers), Donovan Mitchell, Marcin Gortat, and Kelly Olynyk.