Welcome back guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 29th, 2017. Wednesday night slate is a full slate with ten games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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PG/SG: Steph Curry: (9,600) Curry and SF Kevin Durant both missed The Warriors’ last game, but unlike Durant, Curry returned and went through a full practice on Tuesday, pointing to him suiting up tonight, even though he is still listed as questionable. Since he joined The Warriors, the team has been very cautious with Durant whenever he is dealing with an injury. I think he sits another game out and Curry returns to the lineup this evening, pushing him to must play status with Durant gone from this offense. In the four full games that Curry has played in without KD this season, he has seen a team high 35.8% usage rate, which is a large 5.5% increase for an already high usage player. He has scored 1.64 DK points per minute in these games, and is averaging 52 DK points per contest. On top of the insane usage Curry should see, he gets a gorgeous matchup vs The Lakers who play at the fastest pace in the league and have plenty of issues at defending opposing PGs. (4.47 opponent +/-)
Also it is a boost to Curry’s stock that this game is on the road and that there is a good chance Durant is out, which would ultimately make this a far more competitive contest than if this game was being played at The Oracle. (Warriors are currently -11) Lastly, even The Lakers are one of the worst teams out West, star players, like Curry, always get pumped up about playing in The Staples Center, especially with everyone’s new favorite rookie to bully, Lonzo Ball being in purple and gold. I understand that I am giving this recommendation without any confirmation on either Curry or Durant, but if Durant is confirmed out and Curry is confirmed in before lock, Curry is a core play in my eyes. If we have no info before roster lock, I think Curry is worth a dart in GPPs, with his chances of playing being much more likely after participating in practice yesterday. Update: Steph and KD have both been upgraded to probable for tonight. I still like Steph at his price, but this obviously a hit to the usage I was expecting. The matchup and is still great, but the blowout concerns grow.
PG: Michael Carter-Williams: (4,200) Tonight, MCW will start in place of PG Kemba Walker, who is out with a shoulder injury. This is going to be the first full game Kemba has missed this season, but in the minutes Carter-Williams has logged without Walker, he is scoring 0.97 DK points per minute. His usage only goes up 1.4%, but his assist percentage jumps 5.9%, all the way up to a team high 32.2%. As I said, this is going to be the first game Walker has sat out this season, so we don’t know exactly how much Carter-Williams will play, but with a starting role, it’s hard not seeing him playing at least 25 minutes.
This matchup vs The Raptors looks ugly at first, as they allow the second least DK points to PGs this season, but they currently rate as a solid matchup for starting PGs, at a 2.5 opponent +/-. In 25-30 minutes, with the potential for playing time near the mid 30s, MCW has a great chance to meet five times value, with 30 DK points upside. The Hornets 98.5 implied team total isn’t appealing, but I think Carter-Williams is worth the risk, even if his overall situation isn’t perfect.
PF: Pascal Siakam: (3,800) Siakam’s role has been growing in this Raptors’ rotation, as he is averaging 29 minutes over his last six games. There was one start with PF Serge Ibaka out mixed in there, but Siakam has still seen over 25 minutes in four of his last five games, when you don’t include the game without Ibaka. This season, he is averaging 0.87 DK points and with a projection of 25 minutes, which could be a tentative projection, Saikam should exceeded five times value vs this Hornets defense. (2.61 opponent +/-)
His rates aren’t anything eye popping. This play is just simply off a player who has been productive with higher minutes recently. There is no reason why the higher minutes wouldn’t continue tonight, making Siakam a viable punt play for this ten game slate.
SG/SF: Joe Harris: (4,300) With SF Allen Crabbe (back) out these last two games, Harris has started at SF, and is averaging 21 DK points and 32.5 minutes. Crabbe is listed as doubtful and not expected to play tonight, along with PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson who is also listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. SF DeMarre Carroll will return to the starting five and will start at the three, which should push Harris back to SG for tonight. This doesn’t hurt his value in anyway, and Harris should see roughly 30 minutes again with this Nets team still very shorthanded.
Back up Isiash Whitehead was hot last game off the bench and stole some of Harris’s minutes, but it’s hard to expect this to happen again for a player who was barely playing prior to this game. They should go back to relying on Harris, and in roughly 30 minutes, Harris should meet five times value, with him averaging 0.78 DK points per minute this season. This matchup vs The Mavs is also a decent spot for him (1.22 opponent +/-), and this game is expected to be close with The Mavs only favored by 5.5 points. With The Nets still very beat up, I think this a good time to attack Harris, who is still underpriced for the minutes he should see in this tighter than usual Nets rotation.
Also Consider: Bam Adebayo (should start with Whiteside (knee) out. He is averaging 19.33 DK points in the five games Whiteside has missed), Kelly Olynyk/James Johnson (both see nice upticks in their rates without Whiteside. Johnson is the stronger play of the two), Omri Cassipi (has to be considered again if Durant is out), Andre Iguodola (also in play if Durant is out), Patrick McCaw (nice play if Curry is out, he scored a team high 40.25 DK points in 33 minutes last game in the surprise start for Curry, but as I said above, I think Curry plays tonight), T.J. McConnell (great value if Simmons is out, currently questionable with an ankle), Robert Covington/ Dario Saric (better if one of Simmons or Embiid are out), Trevor Booker, DeMarre Carroll, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rajon Rondo, Tim Frazier (sucked last night and is very risky because his minutes got cut short in the win, but if they go back to playing a traditional style with Frazier playing point instead of Beal running the offense, he could end up being a very sneaky GPP play), Otto Porter Jr., Nicholas Batum, Harrison Barnes (still too cheap and the matchup is obviously outstanding vs The Nets), Elfrid Payton, Steven Adams, and Dennis Smith Jr.