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DraftKings NBA Picks – November 2nd

It’s finally Friday and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 2nd. Tonight we get a full slate, with eight games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG: Russell Westbrook: (10,900)

Last night, Westbrook posted a near triple double, scoring 29 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds, and three steals across 37.1 minutes in the win over The Hornets. (60 DK points) He has looked full healthy in these past two (58 DK PPG and 35.2 MPG) and tonight, he is a tremendous spot vs The Wizards, who are 26th in defensive efficiency and third in pace. (6.32 opponent +/-)

This game only trails The Warriors vs Wolves for the highest total of the night (231.5 points) and it seems like the better contest to target, with it’s very tight spread. (WAS -2.5) Westbrook has been fine when playing in his second game in two nights on the road (2.37 +/-) and in the eight career games he has started in with a total of 230 points or more, he is averaging 57.9 DK PPG. He isn’t a must, but if you want to pay up for a stud on Friday night, Westbrook is the best option.

Value Picks:

PG: John Wall: (8,100)

The Wizards having a long west coast road trip this early in the season has really hurt Wall’s numbers. If you didn’t already know by now, Wall is a far different player at home, scoring 4.64 more DK PPG in Washington vs the road last season. Their last five games have been on the road and Wall has only scored 38.1 DK PPG. In the first two games of the season, which were both at home, Wall averaged a much better 48.6 DK PPG. He finally returns back to his home floor tonight vs The Thunder. They are currently rating as a positive matchup for PGs (1.57 opponent +/-) and this game should be extremely fast, with both clubs ranking in the top seven in pace.

The Wizards currently boast the third highest implied team total of the night (117 points) and in the 39 career home games Wall’s team was expected to score over 110 points, he has averaged 48.4 DK PPG. I don’t know if The Wizards will win this game (lost four in a row), but Wall will absolutely get back on track and exceed five times value at this season low price.

PG/SG: Dante Exum: (3,700)

On Wednesday night, Exum had his best game of this young season, scoring 26 DK points off the bench vs The Wolves. He played a season high 25.2 minutes in the loss and tonight he should see similar or possibly more playing time with Donavan Mitchell out with a hamstring injury. We don’t know yet who will start, Exum or Royce O’Neale, but either way, Exum looks like the better play of the two, even if he still comes off the bench. SG Alec Burks (hand, doubtful) is also expected to miss this game, while PG Raul Neto (hamstring) is still out with a timetable to return.

Exum is the only legitimate ball handling guard they have left outside of Ricky Rubio and they will need his playmaking if they don’t want to drop two games in a row. In the 106 minutes Exum logged without Mitchell, Burks, and Neto last season, he saw a 5.6 usage increase and scored 0.98 DK PPM. The game setting vs The Grizzlies is rather ugly (203.5 O/U game total. MEM is 3rd in D efficiency), but given the opportunity Exum is going to see, he is a pretty safe punt play that should produce over 20 DK points.

C: Wendell Carter Jr.: (5,000)

Carter has been the biggest beneficiary with Bobby Portis (knee) out. He just exploded for 55 DK points vs a tough Nuggets’ defense (4th in efficiency) on Wednesday night and has put up over 30 DK points in each of the last three with Portis out of the lineup. In these three contests, the rookie’s rates have massively expanded, with a 25.6% usage rate, a team high 15.2% rebound percentage, and a strong 20.8% assist percentage. This has put him at a robust 1.32 DK PPM vs the 1.1 he has averaged for the season.

His matchup this evening vs The Pacers isn’t anything special (-1.09 opponent +/-. IND is 6th in D efficiency), but given this new role he has, that this is a home game, and the confidence he has after his performance vs Nikola Jokic on Wednesday, Carter needs to be considered at only $5,000. Don’t expect another 55 DK point game, but Carter should achieve five to six times value and is the best value at center for this eight game slate.

Also Consider:

PG: Chris Paul: (9,400)

Has really been a letdown without James Harden (hamstring), scoring 36.9 DK PPG, but you have to think CP3 will step it up soon, after losing both of these games without The Beard. He averaged 46 DK PPG in the nine without Harden in 2017 and this game vs The Nets should be close enough that Paul sees heavy minutes. (HOU -4)

C: Rudy Gobert: (8,200)

Playing against Marc Gasol and The Grizzlies is never ideal for centers, but it hasn’t been that bad of a spot this season (0.8 opponent +/-) and Gobert has been a beast in his last three games. (53.9 DK PPG) Lastly, he saw a 2.3% usage bump without Mitchell, Burks, and Neto a year ago.

SG/SF: Jimmy Butler: (8,000)

Butler is expected to play tonight after being “rested” on Halloween. He is scoring 43.1 DK PPG this season and I am sure he is going to come and try to make a statement after all the rumors that he was holding out and not being rested on Wednesday. Plus, this matchup vs The Warriors is above average (2.0 opponent +/-), but the blowout concern will always be there when a team heads to The Oracle. (GSW -11)

PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (7,600)

LaVine and his ball hog ways have led him to being the second highest used player in The NBA (32.9%) and 42.1 DK PPG. He has scored over 40 DK points in 6/8 games and that should continue tonight with Portis still out, despite this matchup vs The Pacers. (-2.07 opponent +/-)

SG: Bradley Beal: (7,000)

Beal’s home/away splits weren’t as dramatic as Wall’s last season, but he still scored 1.7 more DK PPG in Washington. OKC presents a really tough matchup for two guards (-7.55 opponent +/-), but in the 24 home games last year that The Wizards had an implied team total over 110 points, Beal scored 42.1 DK PPG.

PF/C: Draymond Green: (6,900)

Green’s production has been on the rise in his last four, averaging 41.4 DK PPG. The Wolves are 25th in defensive efficiency (2.44 opponent +/-) and Green at a reasonable price is one of the better ways to get exposure to The Warriors tonight. (126.5 implied team total, which is the highest of the night)

SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,800)

Sucked last game (16.75 DK points), but he is still logging heavy minutes as the starter for Portis. Before Wednesday, Parker was averaging 33.25 DK PPG sans Portis.

PG: Ricky Rubio: (5,700)

Rubio should take on a big workload tonight. With all three of those guards off the court last season, he scored 29.8 DK points per 36 minutes.

PF/C: Serge Ibaka: (5,500)

Ibaka is putting together a really nice season thus far (31.2 DK PPG) and this an unbelievable matchup for him vs The Suns. (13.71 opponent +/-) His price tag is low enough that he should still exceed value even if The Raptors do their job and blow out The Suns. (TOR -11.5)

PG/SG: Derick Rose: (5,400)

Rose isn’t going to set career highs again tonight with Butler back in the fold (69 DK points Wednesday vs The Jazz), but he should still crush value at this price tag with Jeff Teague (knee) out. He will start at PG vs The Warriors and should get 30+ DK points playing up in pace. (3.4 possession increase)

SF/PF: Jermai Grant: (4,000)

Moving into the starting five has been big for Grant. In these last four as a starter, he has topped 20 DK points in every game and this should absolutely continue vs The Wizards, who are a very high opponent +/- of 11.09 points.

SF: Royce O’Neal: (3,300)

If he starts for Mitchell, he is a viable punt. In the two full games Mitchell missed last season, O’Neal scored 24.5 DK PPG.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

 

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