Happy Friday guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 30th. Tonight is a full slate, with 11 games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Joel Embiid: (10,600)
At this current salary, Embiid needs 53 DK points to meet value. Over his last 11 games, this is something he has accomplished in eight of those contests. He has posted six consecutive double doubles and is averaging 57 DK PPG during this span. For Friday night, he will be at home (2.1 more DK PPG this season), in a beautiful spot vs The Wizards. Both of these teams rank in the top five in pace and this game is expected to be the highest scoring of Friday night. (236 O/U game total)
Furthermore, Washington is still without Dwight Howard (glute) and they are allowing the second most RPG. (2.23 opponent +/-) They don’t have a single player that has any chance of slowing down Embiid and he should feast on this defense, for 55-60 DK points, with ceiling close to 70. In the ten previous Sixer games that have presented an O/U game total of 225 points or more, Embiid is averaging 58.7 DK PPG.
PG: Elie Okobo: (3,000)
In the wake of Isaiah Canaan getting waived, Okobo played a season high 31.5 minutes off the bench on Wednesday night. He produced with the expanded role, scoring 33.5 DK points, with a 20% usage rate, in the loss to The Clippers. This was the third game that Okobo has logged over 25 minutes this season and in those three contests, he is averaging a very effective 30 DK PPG. With T.J. Warren (ankle) also out tonight, Okobo is a safe bet for 25+ minutes off the bench.
When Canaan and Warren have been off the court this season, Okobo has seen the biggest usage increase on the team. (3.6%) He is scoring 0.83 DK PPM and should score over 20 DK points tonight vs The Magic (1.37 opponent +/-), making him, by far, the best point per dollar value of the slate, at a bare minimum cost.
SF/PF: Markieff Morris: (5,500)
Since moving to the bench, in favor of Kelly Oubre Jr. starting, Morris has been a completely different player. In these past fives game off the bench, he is averaging 34 DK PPG, compared to the 13.2 DK PPG, he was averaging in the prior six.
He is still playing heavy minutes as a reserve (30 MPG in last five), but is scoring a much more efficient 1.1 DK PPM. Tonight, his improved play should continue, in this above average matchup vs The Sixers. (3.07 opponent +/-) The price moved up for Morris, but he is still a strong value at $5,500, and is one of the most affordable ways to gain exposure to this high scoring event.
SF/PF: Marcus Morris: (5,400)
Markeiff’s twin brother is also a great target on Friday night. The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown (back) and Al Horford (rest) for this awesome matchup vs The Cavs, who are second to last in defensive efficiency this season. As I expected, HC Brad Stevens stayed true to his plan on Monday, and kept Gordon Hayward with the second unit, even with Brown sitting. Now, with Horford also out of the mix, Hayward should stay off the bench, and The Celtics should run out a Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, and Aaron Baynes lineup as their starting five.
Monday, vs The Pelicans, Morris was excellent as a starter, with a 19/11 double double, in only 30.2 minutes. (39.75 DK points) When Brown and Hayward have been off the court this season, Morris has led the team with a 4.8% usage jump and is scoring 1.12 DK PPM. In 30 minutes, which could be modest if The Cavs put up a decent fight (BOS -12.5), Morris should achieve five times value, with 40 DK point upside.
PG/SG: James Harden: (11,700)
If Chris Paul (hamstring) is out again, The Beard needs to be considered, even at a slate high price. In these past three without CP3 and Carmelo Anthony, The Rockets have lost every game, but Harden has put up MVP type numbers. (77.9 DK PPG) He has logged 41 MPG and has seen a 40.5% usage rate. This game vs The Spurs is expected to stay tight (SA -1) and their defense has struggled with opposing guards. (1.67 opponent +/-) In right around 40 minutes, Harden would likely score 60+, if Paul remains out.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,400)
Tonight, AD faces The Heat and the last time he played them, The Brow dropped an insane 90.25 DK points. He is averaging 62.4 DK PPG in his last 11 and this matchup is a current opponent +/- of 2.49 points. He is on the road (-8.6 DK PPG), but I still think AD will approach 60 DK points, given the matchup.
PG: Kyrie Irving: (9,300)
His price and the large spread (BOS -12.5), make him a better GPP play, but this is a revenge game vs The Cavs (1.15 opponent +/-), and in all the time he has played without Brown/Horford this year, Irving is scoring 49.24 DK points per 36 minutes. (4.6% usage increase)
C: Marc Gasol: (9,100)
With a questionable tag next to his name (ankle) and the common trend that nobody likes to roster him in DFS, Gasol would be an elite tournament target if he is able to suit up. This matchup vs The Nets is outstanding (3.72 opponent +/-) and he has taken his game to another level recently, scoring 52.7 DK PPG in his last six.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (8,900)
Even with foul trouble, Vuc still scored 45 DK points in only 28.4 minutes vs The Blazers on Wednesday. He is now averaging 51.4 DK PPG in his last eight and could see a small boost if Aaron Gordon (back) misses another game. (0.5% usage and 1.7% assist percentage increase with Gordon off the floor this year) Finally, Vuc is facing Deandre Ayton and The Suns, who are the worst rated defense in The NBA. (2.96 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (8,700)
Holiday plays better with a healthy Davis in the linuep and this showed in their last game, with Holiday scoring 49.25 DK points vs The Wizards. This matchup vs a beat up Heat back court is strong (2.91 opponent +/-) and in the five other games Holiday has gone against an opponent +/- of at least 2.5 points this season, he is averaging 47 DK PPG.
PG: Mike Conley: (8,300)
Conley is scoring 47.6 DK PPG in his last five and The Nets are a prime spot for PGs. (1.97 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (6,700)
Parker has been on a roll (44.3 DK PPG in last five) and this matchup vs The Pistons is in his favor. (1.73 opponent +/-) He is clearly too cheap right now.
SG/SF: Eric Gordon: (5,800)
Gordon struggled a little bit in their last game (26.75 DK points vs The Mavs), but he is still scoring 36.75 DK PPG in these last three without Paul. If Paul is out again, I think Gordon is a fine value, that may get overlooked, due to his last game.
PF/C: Larry Nance Jr.: (5,600)
Nance is averaging 30 DK PPG and 36.8 MPG in his last two. If David Nwaba (knee) is out again, Nance would have to play heavy minutes, vs this Celtic’s defense that will be without Al Horford.
SF: Cedi Osman: (5,200)
With Kyle Korver getting traded and David Nwaba (knee) out, Osman played 39.3 minutes and supplied 37.5 DK points on Wednesday, vs a league best Thunder defense. If Nwaba can’t give it a go, Osman will be viable, based solely off high playing time.
PG: Ryan Arcidiacono: (4,400)
Arcidiacono has balled in his last two games. (41 DK PPG) He has scored 22 real points in each contest and is averaging 3.5 steals, with a solid 17.25% usage rate. In 35+ minutes, he should top 25 DK points vs The Pistons. (1.51 opponent +/-)
PF: Jonathan Isaac: (4,400)
If Gordon is out, Isaac would be a nice value vs this league worst Suns’ defense. With Gordon out Wednesday, Isaac put up 28.75 DK points in 30.1 minutes vs The Blazers.
PF/SG: Marcus Smart: (4,300)
With Brown out on Monday, Smart started, and played a season high 39.4 minutes. (22.5 DK points) Now, with Horford also out, the playing time should remain, and Smart is scoring a solid 0.82 DK PPM without these two starters this year. Oh, and don’t forget, The Cavs are the second worst defense in the league.
PG/SG: Tim Frazier: (4,200)
In a surprise start, Frazier was terrific on Wednesday, scoring 42.5 DK points in 36.5 minutes vs The Wizards. These were both season highs and you have to expect he will keep this starting job, with The Pelicans convincingly winning this game. (125-104) Tonight, he goes against a Heat defense, that has been horrid at defending PGs. (3.85 opponent +/-) His PG/SG eligibility makes him a friendly option, that I don’t mind using in all formats.
SF: Josh Jackson: (3,800)
Jackson will start for Warren. He is averaging 25.25 DK points in his last two, in only 20.9 MPG. The only concern here is that the second year player out of Kansas has yet to crack 25 minutes this season. It is very odd, but with both Warren and Canaan out of the picture, you have to think Jackson will log 25-30 minutes as a starter, and has a chance at 20-25 DK points.
*Please note most of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com