What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 3oth, 2017. Tonight we get a solid slate with fives games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (7,300) Williams was already soaking up a ton of usage with SF Danilo Gallinari (glute) and PG Patrick Beverly (knee) both out, but his rate should get even higher with PF Blake Griffin out with a knee injury. With all three of these Clippers off the court, Williams sees his usage jump 5.8%, all the way up to a team high 33.5%.
When you factor in these rates, he is scoring 41.3 DK points per 36 minutes of action. The pace factor isn’t in his favor vs The Jazz (-4.3 possession), but this defense has seen a downgrade ever since they lost their starting center and defensive back bone, Rudy Gobert. (0.57 opponent +/-) Williams will start and should see all the minutes he can handle, in this contest that has a small two point spread. His price has hit a season peak at $7,300, but he still rates as an excellent value and is a must play in my opinion for this small slate.
PF/C: Montrezl Harrell: (3,500)/SF/PF: Sam Dekker: (3,500) With Griffin out, there is a huge void to fill in this Clippers front court. Center Deandre Jordan will play more and soak up most of the rebounding, but Harrell and Dekker should split most of the remaining minutes for this front court, with SF Wesley Johnson mixing in as well. Right now, it is unclear who will start, but If I were to guess, I think Dekker starts tonight, as he matches up better with Jazz starting PF Jonas Jerebko.
This season Dekker is scoring 0.77 DK points per minute, and with 25-30 minutes he should easily be able to produce five to six times value in this average matchup. (-0.41 opponent +/-) I think Harrell plays less than Dekker, but in around 20 minutes, he is also very much in play, with him being the better fantasy player of the two, at 1.11 DK points per minute. It isn’t ideal taking too many risks from the same team, but given their cheap price tags and that this is a smaller slate, both players are viable options and I have no issues with utilizing both in the same lineup.
PF/C: John Collins: (5,500) PF Luke Babbit (back) will return and start at PF tonight for The Hawks, but starting Dwayne Dedmon (leg) is now out, which will push Collins over to the five spot in this starting lineup. The foul risk will always be there with Collins, but with back up center Mike Muscala (ankle) also remaining out, Collins should see 30+ minutes and play until he fouls out. He will be taking on a Cavs defense that has been improving from their very rocky start, but this is still a nice match-up vs Cavs’ starting center Kevin Love. (2.3 opponent +/-)
Collins is a great fantasy player (1.05 DKPPM), and with 30+ minutes, he should top 30 DK points, with really nice upside if he can tally a double double. As I said earlier, his foul trouble issues are always there (5.8 fouls per 36 minutes), but with this Hawks front court so shorthanded, Collins’ upside is a hard thing to ignore on Thursday night.
PG/SG: Kris Dunn: (6,000) Finally, in his fifth consecutive start, Dunn erupted for 24 points, eight assists, four rebounds, and four steals in 33 minutes vs The Suns Tuesday night. (48.5 DK points) In this game, he posted a 28.7% usage rate, along with a team high 44.4% assist percentage. The match-up vs the up tempo Suns obviously helped, but tonight’s matchup is also very solid, going against a Nuggets team, that rates positively for SGs (1.65 opponent +/-), but also plays at a faster pace than The Bulls. (3.0 possession increase)
His usage should remain high and I think we see him play 30+ minutes again after his performance on Tuesday. I am expecting 30+ DK points, with really nice upside, as this Nuggets team allows the most steals in The NBA this season, which is a huge boost for Dunn. (2.1 steals per game) No doubt there is risk here, but with only five games to target, Dunn seems like a necessary risk in GPPs, and is an okay cash game play depending on how you build your lineup.
Also Consider: Jerryd Bayless, Juancho Hernangomez (should start again for Wilson Chandler, 22 DK points in 28 minutes last game), Dario Saric (rates will increase without Embiid and McConnell), J.J. Redick, Wesley Johnson, Kenneth Faried, Austin Rivers, Gary Harris, Amir Johnson/Richaun Holmes, Derrick Favors, and Deandre Jordan (39.2 DK points in the 20 games Griffin missed last season).