Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 3rd. For Saturday night, we get seven games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Jokic: (9,000)
After a two game road trip, Jokic heads home for an awesome matchup vs The Jazz. Over his career, The Joker has presented some significant home/away splits (4.75 more DK PPG at home) and this trend has been even more dramatic this season, with him averaging a whopping 11 more DK PPG in Denver. I have touched on this a couple times already this year, but for whatever reason, Rudy Gobert has been a shell of himself as a defender through eight games.
Karl-Anthony Towns just scored a season best 64 DK points on Gobert this past Wednesday and this defense is currently rating as a very high opponent +/- of 7.91 points for starting centers, after being in the negatives for most of last season. Also, The Nuggets are only favored by five points, which should put Jokic at 30-35 minutes. He should score 50+ DK points in this spot and could end up being very under owned, just due to the general public’s idea of Gobert being a defensive stopper. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
PG/SG: Tyler Johnson: (4,100)
Johnson didn’t practice Friday with an illness, but he should be good to go tonight and ready to start at PG with Goran Dragic (toe) out. He played very well in this situation last season, averaging 26.4 DK PPG and 34.5 MPG in the four contests Dragic missed. This is the perfect time for Johnson to enter the starting five, going against Trae Young and The Hawks. With the rookie PG running the offense, Atlanta has become the fastest team in The NBA and they have been very weak defensively (20th in efficiency), especially against PGs. (6.8 opponent +/-)
Just this past Thursday night, De’Aaron Fox went off for a 33 point triple double (72.5 DK points) vs them, which was the first of his career. Obviously, Fox is the far better talent, but this is just an example to show you how strong of a matchup this really is. Johnson has topped 20+ DK points in three of his last four games off the bench, and as a starter, we should see 25-30 DK points from him on Saturday. He is the best point per dollar value of the slate and is a core play for me in all formats.
C: Wendall Carter Jr.: (5,500)
Carter kept it going last night, scoring 33.5 DK points vs The Pacers. This was the fifth game in a row starting PF Bobby Portis (knee) has missed and during this span, Carter is averaging 34.25 DK PPG. As I talked about yesterday, the rookie’s rates have all grown sans Portis. In these last five contests, Carter has seen a 23.9% usage rate, a 22.7% assist percentage, and a 15.5% rebound percentage. (1.3 DK PPM)
Tonight, he gets an excellent matchup, vs The Rockets, who are a 10.6 opponent +/- for starting centers, which is the best possible matchup for a starting player on Saturday night. He has a strong chance of picking up a double double and Carter should score over 30 DK points for the fourth straight game.
SF/PF: Justice Winslow: (4,500)
Winslow’s playing time has increased in each of his three games this season, up to 29.5 minutes vs The Hornets on Tuesday. He is currently coming off the bench, but soon, HC Eric Spoelstra should shift the SF back to the starting lineup. Either way, they will need him to play around 30 minutes again on Saturday, with Dragic out.
He is scoring 0.9 DK PPM in his first three games of the year and if we combine that with a projection of exactly 30 minutes, which could be modest, Winslow should easily exceed five times value playing up in pace vs The Hawks. (2.23 opponent +/- and 2.8 possession increase) In the past eight games that Winslow has seen a pace bump of at least 2.0 possessions, he is averaging 25.3 DK PPG and finally, in the 775 minutes he logged with Dragic on the bench last season, his usage went up 1.8%. At only $4,500, Winslow is my favorite play at an ugly SF position.
PG: Damian Lillard: (9,900)
Lillard’s price is high, but this a strong spot for him at home vs The Lakers. This game has the highest O/U game total of tonight’s seven (236 points) and The Lakers have been the second fastest team, compared to The Blazers, who are 14th. (3.6 opponent +/- and 3.8 possession increase) In the previous 18 games Lillard had a pace bump over 3.0 and the game total was 220+, he scored 48.9 DK PPG.
SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (8,200)
Mirotic is scorching hot right now, scoring over 42 DK points in three straight. Anthony Davis (questionable, elbow) missed two of these games and Mirotic is a better play if AD is forced out again.
PG: Jrue Holiday: (7,900)
The same goes for Holiday. He has been great in these past three (43.75 DK PPG), but would be a much safer option if Davis is out. The matchup is also strong for Holiday, as The Spurs have really struggled slowing down PGs without Dejounte Murray. (2.12 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (7,800)
This a tougher spot vs Chris Paul (-2.24 opponent +/-), but LaVine is at home and is just too cheap for how well he is playing. (41.6 DK PPG)
SG/SF: Josh Richardson: (7,200)
This may seem like a crazy price for Richardson, but this matchup vs The Hawks is excellent (5.86 opponent +/- and a 2.8 possession increase) and he was great without Dragic last season, averaging 35.6 DK PPG in the six the PG missed.
C: JaVale McGee: (6,400)
McGee bounced back in a big way last game (50.25 DK points vs The Mavs) and he is now at 34.6 DK PPG this season. Plus, he is averaging 27.1 MPG this season, but has logged over 30 in three of his last four. In game one of the season, McGee scored 32.5 DK points vs this same Blazer team in only 21.4 minutes of work.
SG/SF: Justin Holiday: (4,800)
Holiday has produced with some higher playing time in these last two games. (30.25 DK PPG in 37.3 MPG) and The Rockets have been weak vs starting SFs. (2.82 opponent +/-) He is averaging 0.8 DK PPM in his last four starts and scoring 3.6 more DK PPG at home in Chicago. If this game stays close (HOU -8.5), Holiday is a decent bet for 25+ DK points.