What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 3rd, 2017. Tonight we get a huge slate with 12 games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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PG: Dennis Schroder: (7,100) Schroder hasn’t looked bothered by the ankle injury that kept him out of a game last week, as he is averaging 37.8 DK points in 33.6 minutes in these last three games since his return. He is clearly back to full strength and is currently very underpriced for the way he has played this season. At his current price tag of $7,100 he needs 35.5 DK points to meet value, which is obviously something he can accomplish with him averaging 38.6 DK points through his first six games of the season.
This matchup is in his favor, going against James Harden and this Rockets defense that has allowed the 5th most DK points to PGs. (4.21 opponent +/-) it is a small concern that The Rockets are eight point favorites, but I think The Hawks keep this one close on their home floor, leading Schroder to his usual mid 30 minute role. I have had success targeting PGs vs this defense so far this season, and I am going right back to the well tonight, with Schroder at a discounted price.
PG: Shelvin Mack: (3,800) The Magic have been without PG Elfird Payton (hamstring), but now they will also be without PG D.J Augustin (hamstring) who has been starting with Payton sidelined. Wednesday night, Augustin left the game after only playing 15 minutes. In his absence, Mack picked up the slack, putting 23 DK points across 25 minutes in the win over The Grizzlies. Tonight, Mack will draw the start, in a much easier matchup vs The Bulls, who have allowed the 7th most DK points to opposing PGs. (2.84 opponent +/-)
We have a decent amount of data to fall back on this situation, with Mack logging 132 minutes this season with both guards off the floor. In those minutes he has been solid, leading this team with a 32.3% assist rate, and is scoring 27.5 DK points per 36 minutes. He should see around this amount of playing time with The Magic so shorthanded, and he should have no issues producing 5-6 times value in this matchup.
SF/PF: Kyle Kuzma: (4,700)/PF/C: Julius Randle: (4,700) Last night, Lakers’ starting PF Larry Nance broke his thumb and is expected to miss the next few weeks. With Nance out, both Kuzma and Randle should see bigger roles in this front court. The Lakers haven’t said who will get the starting nod, but if I were to guess, I think it will be Kuzma tonight, as he matches up better with Nets PF Rondae Hollis Jefferson, who is more of a SF, just like Kuzma. After Nance exited the game last night, Kuzma played well in his relief, scoring 22 points, three rebounds, and one block in 29 minutes vs The Blazers. (27.25 DK points) In a starting role, he should play around 30 minutes, which is plenty of time for him to out produce his salary. For the season, he is averaging 0.9 DK points a minute with Nance off the floor, and he couldn’t ask for a better situation than going against The Nets tonight, who have a very high current opponent of 10.67 points to PFs.
As I said Randle should also pick up some extra playing time, and just like with Kuzma, he has been very effective with Nance off the court, scoring a great 1.16 DK points in the minutes he has played without Nance this season. As you could have guessed, his matchup is also outstanding vs this Nets defense. (6.39 opponent +/-) The bottom line is that both of these players are both underpriced for the minutes they should see in this dream matchup. The Lakers and The Nets are two of the three fastest teams in The NBA, and this game should be an absolutely scoring frenzy. This tilt has the highest total of the night at 227.5 points and it is expected to be one of the most competitive games of this 12 game slate. (LA -2) There is no doubt you are going to need exposure to this game, and I think locking in both Randle and Kuzma at their cheap salaries is a smart move on Friday night.
PG/SG: Jordan Clarkson: (4,000) By far tonight’s weakest position is SG. I’d rather pay up at other positions than locking in James Harden, so I think the best approach is to punt the position. Yes, Clarkson is another Laker, but his low $4,000 salary, and SG eligibility, make him a very interesting play tonight. As I just went over, this Lakers Nets game is the best game of this 12 game slate to target. (227.5 O/U, LA -2) Even in a reserve role, Clarkson has a great chance vs this Nets team that has the fourth worst defense this season. (2.52 opponent +/-)
The high pace of this game fits Clarkson’s game perfectly, and with his usual 20 minute role off the bench, he should score 20-25 DK points, as he is averaging 1.08 DK points minute this season. This is a big leap from his 0.8 average last year and this biggest reason is the massive change he has seen in his usage. With D’Angelo Russell in town last season, Clarkson saw a 23% usage rate, but this season without Russell, Clarkson has been the second unit’s primary scorer, and he has averaged a high 32% usage rate, which is the highest rate on the team. His lack of high playing time isn’t ideal, but Clarkson at only $4,000, is currently the best value at SG in my model, and is a viable play in all formats and that just gives you another share of this elite game setting.
Also Consider: Taurean Prince, Tim Hardaway Jr., Kris Dunn (26.2 DK points in his first two games), Domantas Sabonis (if Turner remains out), Dennis Smith Jr., Kyle Anderson, Jonathon Simmons (should see a slight bump with Payton and now Augustin out), Enes Kanter/Kyle O’Quinn (if Porzingis out, is dealing with an illness) Trevor Ariza, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, DeMarre Carroll, Frank Ntilikina (I feel like his minutes are slowly growing and sooner or later he should take over as the starting PG), and J.J. Redick.