Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 4th, 2017. Saturday’s main slate is a small slate of only four games. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on [email protected]Hunta512.
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C: Andre Drummond: (8,100) Drummond quietly has been a very strong DFS play this season, averaging 41.5 DK points a game. His minutes were surprisingly low in the first two games of the year, but ever since he has been terrific, scoring at least five times value in six of his last seven games. He is in a perfect situation to keep producing tonight, vs a Kings team that is giving up the 6th most rebounds a game. (7.14 opponent +/-)
The Pistons are 9.5 point home favorites in this game, which is slightly concerning, but I think Drummond can still top 40 DK points even if he only plays around 30 minutes. He is a strong value at $8,100 and is one of the better high price spends of this four game slate.
PG/SG: David Nwaba: (3,900) Since joining the starting five, Nwaba has been solid playing as The Bulls’ starting SF, averaging 27.5 DK points a game. Even with a blowout in one of these starts, he is still averaging 32 minutes as a starter. He isn’t a high usage player (12.5%), but he is a good rebounder for his size, who always can contribute with defensive stats.
Tonight he takes on The Pelicans, who have surrendered the fourth most DK points to SFs this season. As a starter, he has produced 0.84 DK points per minute, and with 30-35 minutes, I am expecting 20+ DK points out of Nwaba tonight. He isn’t an exciting play, but he is one of the better cheap values of small slate, just based on playing time alone.
PG/SG: Avery Bradley: (5,300) Simply put, Bradley is underpriced at $5,300. It took a few games for him to get used to playing with The Pistons, but he has been much better as of late, averaging 29.35 DK points over his last five games. No matter if the game is tight or a blowout, his minutes have remained consistent, as he has played at least 30 minutes during this span.
His usage has also been up in these last five games, at 25.4%, which is a 3.1% increase from his first two games in a Piston jersey. The Kings rate well vs SGs (-3.5 opponent +/-), but I don’t think this is anything that should scares us off Bradley, as this defense is the sixth worst in The NBA, based on efficiency. He should score close to 30 DK points and is a viable play in all formats on Saturday night.
PG: De’Aaron Fox: (5,200) Fox sucked in his first career start last Sunday (12.5 DK points vs The Wizards), but I think we need to give him another chance tonight, with him drawing another start with PG George Hill missing this game due to personal reasons. His price has been slowly dropping over the last week, and at $5,200 he needs to score 26 DK points, which is right at what he has been averaging this season. (26.1 DK PPG)
His usage doesn’t budge much with Hill off the court (25.7%), but his assist percentage sees close to a 3% bump, and he is scoring 34 DK points per 36 minutes with the veteran out of the picture. 36 minutes is an unrealistic projection for anyone on this Kings team, but I think we see him play roughly 28-30 minutes on Saturday night vs The Pistons. This is a solid spot for him, going against Pistons PG Reggie Jackson who always been a weak defender throughout his career. (1.04 opponent +/-) He essentially scores a DK point per minute without Hill, and he should be able to meet five times value, with 30-35 DK point upside tonight.
Also Consider: J.J. Barea, Stanley Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Dennis Smith Jr., Kris Dunn (should be low owned after his down game last night), Tony Allen (has scored 10+ DK points in three straight games and is only $3,000), Gary Harris, Eric Moreland (risky punt, but should play back up to Drummond with Jon Leuer out. He scored 19.75 DK points in 20 minutes off the bench last game with Leuer sidelined), Jamal Murray, and Taj Gibson.