Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 5th. Tonight, we get a full slate, with nine games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,100)
Westbrook has been tremendous in his last three games, scoring an elite 1.8 DK PPM. He seems to be fully recovered from the knee injury and tonight, he is back at home to face The Pelicans, who have been awful vs PGs this year. (7.3 opponent +/-) Both of these teams rank inside the top eight in pace and this tilt should be a back and forth shootout. Vegas has given this matchup an O/U game total of 237 points, which is the highest total of the night, by nine points. (OKC -4)
In the six instances Westbrook has played in a game with a total of 230 points or more and a single digit spread, he has been great, averaging 57.2 DK PPG. Plus, this is a 3.5 possession increase for The Thunder and Westbrook has always thrived when seeing a pace bump over 2.5 possessions during his career. (58.83 DK PPG) With Anthony Davis struggling right now, with the elbow injury (44.5 DK PPG in last two), Westbrook is without question, the top overall play of this nine game slate.
C: Boban Marjanovic: (4,500)
After a season best 38.25 DK points in 23 minutes off the bench vs The Sixers on Thursday, HC Doc Rivers decided to give Marjanovic the start at center for their next game. The real life giant didn’t disappoint, tallying a double double of 10 points and 11 rebounds (27.25 DK points) across 23 minutes in a 25 point win over The Magic. Former Clippers’ starting center, veteran Marcin Gortat, didn’t see a single minute of action in this victory. Marjanovic should remain the starting center tonight in a strong matchup vs The Wolves.
They are 27th in defensive efficiency and have allowed the second most RPG this season. (3.96 opponent +/-) He isn’t going to play high minutes, but in roughly 25 minutes of work, Boban should crush value at this current price tag. (1.54 DK PPM) He will absolutely cost much more for his next game and I highly recommend making Marjanovic a core play on Monday night.
SF/PF: Jermai Grant: (4,400)
Grant was excellent on Friday night, scoring 22 points, four rebounds, four assists, and three steals in 34.1 minutes vs The Wizards. This was his fifth consecutive start at PF for The Thunder and he has scored at least 10 real points in each of these games. He is now averaging 26.4 DK PPG and 30.3 MPG during this stretch. (0.9 DK PPM)
His individual matchup tonight vs The Pelicans is average (-0.19 opponent +/-), but overall, they have been soft on defense. (28th in efficiency) Grant should exceed five times value in this spot and he is one of the better cheap ways to get exposure to this high total.
PG: Ricky Rubio: (6,000)
Starting SG Donovan Mitchell (ankle) is out tonight and in the one other game he sat this season, Rubio took over this offense, putting up 44 DK points in a tough matchup vs The Grizzlies. In this game, he led the team with a 33.2% usage rate and a huge 64.7% assist percentage. It’s hard to expect these kind of rates again, but either way, they should be much higher than his season averages.
His matchup vs The Raptors is solid for PGs (3.85 opponent +/-) and they could be without Kawhi Leonard (GTD, foot), which would make this defense a much weaker unit overall. Rubio should score 30-35 DK points and is a fine target in all formats at this reasonable price.
PG: Kyle Lowry: (8,600)
If Leonard is forced to miss tonight’s game vs The Jazz, Lowry is a must play. He scored 59.5 DK points vs The Lakers last night and is now averaging 48.75 DK PPG in the three contests the SF has missed this season.
PG/SG: Victor Oladipo: (8,300)
Oladipo has been unstoppable in his last two, averaging 53.25 DK PPG. He has had a double double in each of these games and tonight he stays at home to face off against James Harden and The Rockets. (3.96 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (8,100)
Mirotic continued his dominant play on Saturday night, scoring 46 DK points vs The Spurs. AD being back has had no effect on his scores and he has produced 45.8 DK PPG in his last four. Last, but not least, this matchup vs The Thunder is outstanding for Mirotic. (7.77 opponent +/-)
C: Wendell Carter Jr.: (6,000)
His price has hit a season’s high, but Carter is still viable. He is averaging 39.2 DK PPG in these last five with Bobby Portis (knee) out and tonight he faces a middle of the pack defense in The Knicks. (-0.73 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Serge Ibaka: (5,500)
Just like with Lowry, Ibaka would be one of the best plays of the night if Leonard can’t give it a go. He is averaging 42.92 DK PPG in the three contests sans Leonard and last night, he scored a career high 34 points in the win over The Lakers. (55 DK points) Furthermore, this matchup vs The Jazz has surprisingly been gold for centers this season. (7.91 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Derick Rose: (5,200)
I know this is a tough one to swallow after last night (was ruled in and then was a late scratch right after tip), but if Jeff Teague (knee) remains out and Rose is confirmed in and starting, this would be an ideal time to attack. The ownership would be down due to recency bias and this price tag is just too cheap if he can log over 30 minutes. (1.1 DK PPM)
PF/C: Kelly Olynyk: (5,000)
Olynyk is the player to target in GPPs with Hassan Whiteside (knee) hurt. His minutes and production have been all over the place this season (17.1 DK PPG), but in the 27 games with Whiteside sitting last year, Olynyk was rock solid. (29.8 DK PPG) Bam Adebayo (below) is much safer as the projected starter, but Olynyk has the better upside, and will be far less owned. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
SF/PF: Justice Winslow: (5,200)
With Goran Dragic out last game, Winslow went off for 47.5 DK points in 36.5 minutes vs The Hawks. Dragic will return, but Whiteside (knee) will be out. It’s hard to say if they will keep Winslow as a starter, but if they do, he will be very viable vs The Pistons. (4.24 opponent +/-)
PF: Pascal Siakam: (4,800)
Siakam has been exceptional without Leonard this year (36.3 DK PPG) and would need to be considered if The SF misses another game.
C: Bam Adebayo: (4,300)
Bam should start at center tonight for the injured Whiteside. (knee) After Whiteside exited last game and only played 16 minutes, it was Adebayo who saw the biggest bump in minutes, logging a season high 31 minutes off the bench. He only turned in 18.75 DK points, but this was a really tough matchup for centers vs The Hawks. Adebayo scores 0.94 DK PPM this season and with roughly 30 minutes, we should see a much better output vs The Pistons. (3.53 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Stanley Johnson: (3,700)
Johnson’s floor is very shakey, but he has played over 30 minutes in three straight games. He was dreadful Saturday night (7.0 DK points vs The Sixers), but was averaging 23 DK PPG in his prior three. In this positive matchup vs The Heat (3.88 opponent +/-), Johnson can be considered as a punt play.
SG: Grayson Allen: (3,000)
Allen started in the last game Mitchell missed, but only scored 11.5 DK points. The positive is that he logged 27.12 minutes. If Allen starts and sees this kind of playing time again, he has a decent shot of coming close to five times value. If desperate, the rookie is viable at a bare minimum price.