How’s it going guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 6th. Tonight, we get a small slate of only four games. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
PG/SG: Devin Booker: (8,200)
The Greek Freak is the obvious top option of the slate (below), but I think Booker is strongest high end value. Since returning from the hamstring injury, Booker has faced two tough matchups for guards (TOR and MEM), but has still produced a solid 35 DK PPG. Tonight, he is in a much better spot, facing The Nets, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency, compared to his last two opponents, who are both in the top ten. This tilt is expected to be very close (BKN -1.5) and the total is at a healthy 219 points.
Booker’s minutes haven’t been limited in anyway (35.5 MPG in last two) and he should see heavy playing time. In the past 47 games The Suns have competed in with a total over 215 points, Booker is averaging 40.6 DK PPG. This usage monster (31.5% this season, 5th highest in The NBA) always has great upside and I am expecting a 40+ DK point showing from Booker on Tuesday night.
PG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (5,700)
DSJ has struggled in his last two (17.6 DK PPG), but this a perfect chance for him to bounce back, going against The Wizards at home. This Washington team has been one of the best to pick on in the early stages of the season, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency and 5th in pace. (5.79 opponent +/-)
Smith’s usage (33.5%) and minutes (31.5) were back to being high and stable in their last game and in 30-35 minutes of action, he should approach 30 DK points in this dream matchup. This game has an O/U game total of 225 points and in the last eight occasions that Smith has seen a game total of at least 220 points, he is averaging 28.7 DK PPG, which is right at what he needs to meet five times value at his current salary.
C: Deandre Jordan: (7,900)
Similar to Smith, Jordan’s numbers have been down in his last two (23.5 DK PPG), but he should get back on track vs this dreadful Wizards’ defense. They are currently rating as an opponent +/- of 3.16 points for starting centers and most of this has come from them allowing the most total rebounds per game this season. (61.1)
In the last two games that DJ has faced an opponent +/- of 3.0 points or more, he has scored over 50 DK points in each contest. With this game having a very small spread (WAS -1), Jordan should approach five times value in roughly 35 minutes, with a ceiling above 50.
C: Jarrett Allen: (5,200)
On Sunday, Allen posted a 15 and 10 ten double double in a difficult martchup vs Joel Embiid. (35 DK points) With the increase in minutes this season (26.3 MPG), Allen has been a solid fantasy option. (27.9 DK PPG) He is always a threat for a double double and is producing right over one DK point per minute. (1.1 DK PPM)
His matchup on Tuesday is very strong, going against The Suns, who are second to last in defensive efficiency this year. Deandre Ayton is a promising rookie, but his defense has been very suspect, with them presenting a high current opponent +/- of 7.25 points. At only $5,200, Allen is a solid mid-tier target that should reach value.
SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo: (12,600)
This price tag is crazy, but if this game stays as close as expected (MIL -1), Giannis should own the highest score of the night. He currently has the highest usage rate in the entire league (34.1%) and is scoring a massive 1.82 DK PPM. Put him at a projection of 35 minutes and Antetokounmpo should crack 60 points vs this Blazer’s defense.
PG: Damian Lillard: (9,600)
Lillard is at home tonight in an above average matchup for PGs vs The Bucks. (4.57 opponent +/-) This game has an O/U game total of 228 points and in the last nine home games Lillard has played in with a total over 225, he is producing an awesome 49.5 DK PPG.
PG: Kemba Walker: (9,300)
Walker has scored under 40 DK points in three straight games, but this has been mostly due to blowouts. Now, tonight isn’t much different when it comes to blowout risk (CHA -11.5), but this matchup vs The Hawks has been one of, if not, the best there is for PGs this season. (11.62 opponent +/-) In the event Walker’s plays close to a normal amount of minutes, he should generate over 45 DK points.
PG: Luka Doncic: (7,700)
Doncic should excel playing up in pace vs The Wizards. They are a very high 9.45 opponent +/- and Doncic is scoring 36.4 DK PPG at home this season.
C: Deandre Ayton: (7,500)
Ayton has been much better at home this year (3.8 more DK PPG) and this matchup vs The Nets is slightly in his favor. (1.17 opponent +/-) The very small spread of this game should keep his minutes high, giving the rookie a chance of 40+ DK points, which is something he has accomplished five times already in only nine games.
SG: Bradley Beal: (7,400)
I usually prefer to target Beal at home in Washington, but this matchup vs The Mavs is just too enticing. They are 25th in defensive efficiency, bringing them to a very high opponent +/- of 8.21 points for starting SGs.
C: Dwight Howard: (6,100)
Howard has only played two games with The Wizards, but his minutes jump dramatically from game one to two. (23 then 30) Assuming this game stays true to it’s spread (WAS -1), Howard could end up playing over 30, in this matchup that requires his size vs Deandre Jordan. Furthermore, Jordan is a player that always seems to let opposing big men put up big numbers. (2.17 opponent +/-)
PG: Isaiah Canaan: (3,800)
In these last two games, Canaan has logged at least 30 minutes in each contest. (21.4 DK PPG) As I have mentioned, this Suns Nets game is expected to be tight (BKN -1.5), so Canaan should remain over 30 this evening. He is averaging 0.7 DK PPM and should get us over 20 DK points, making him one of the better punts available.
SG: Kevin Huerter: (3,300)
With Taurean Prince (ankle) out, Huerter is the mostly likely candidate to start vs The Hornets. He is averaging 0.9 DK PPM and in the two games he has logged over 25 minutes this season, he has produced 27.6 DK PPM. Being a rookie, he should still play even if this game gets out of hand. If you want Antetokounmpo in your lineup , Huerter and Canaan seem like must haves.