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DraftKings NBA Picks – November 7th

Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for November 7th. For Wednesday night, we get a big slate of ten games. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

SF/PF: Paul George: (9,100)

After Russell Westbrook (ankle, played 22 minutes) got hurt and exited in their last game, George took over, and dropped 52 DK points on the Pelicans. This wasn’t the first time PG13 has dominated with Westbrook sidelined and in the four full games he has played without Westbrook, George is scoring 46.4 DK PPG and seeing a very high 37.6% usage rate. Westbrook has already been ruled out for tonight, which will keep George in a huge role vs The Cavs, who are the worst rated defense in The NBA. (2.73 opponent +/-)

This may sound like a blowout, but with Westbrook out of the equation, Vegas is expecting The Cavs to put up a fight on their home floor. (OKC -6) This is great news for George and the rest of The Thunder starters. He should play heavy minutes and reach five times value, with a ceiling close to 60 DK points, given the tremendous matchup. Westbrook is expected to miss a few games and we must take advantage of George tonight, before his price gets out of reach.

Value Picks:

PG/SG: Derick Rose: (5,600)

Jeff Teague (knee) has already been confirmed out for Wednesday, keeping Rose as The Wolves’ starting PG. With Teague missing Monday night, Rose showed no signs of injury, after a one game absence with a sore ankle, scoring 30.25 DK points across 35 minutes in a very tough matchup vs The Clippers. This was the second game Rose has started for Teague and he is now averaging 36.75 DK PPG and a team high 39.9% usage rate in these two contests. (1.61 DK PPM) Tonight, he should log 30-35 minutes in a pristine matchup vs The Lakers. (1.52 opponent +/-)

Both of these Western Conference teams rank in the bottom seven in defensive efficiency and The Lakers are the third fastest team in the association. This game should live up to it’s slate high O/U game total (237 points) and Rose should flourish playing way up in pace. (4.3 possession increase) I expect him to play, but if Jimmy Butler was rested again, Rose would see an even bigger boost in usage and minutes. (67 DK points in 40.5 minutes with a 44% usage rate in the one game both Teague and Butler were out) With or without Butler, Rose is one of the strongest value plays available and is a core play for me on Wednesday night.

PG/SG: Dennis Schroder: (6,900)

Schroder is a steal at this salary with Westbrook out. He scored 33.13 DK PPG in the first two Westbrook missed and in all the time Schroder has logged without the Superstar PG, his usage has jumped up 4.1% and he is generating 43.3 DK points per 36 minutes of action.

As I said above, this spot vs The Cavs is one of the best in the league (2.51 opponent +/-) and Schroder shouldn’t have any issues carving them up for 35-40 DK points. His PG/SG eligibility makes him a very flexible option, that needs to be attacked in both cash games and GPPs.

PG: De’Aaron Fox: (6,300)

Yes, The Kings got embarrassed by The Bucks on Sunday (109-144), leading Fox to only 26 minutes (32 DK point), but the $400 price drop he has seen, is just too extreme. In his last six games, he is averaging 41.7 DK PPG. This is inflated due to his 72.5 DK point outburst vs The Hawks, but even if we don’t include this game, Fox is still averaging 35 DK PPG this season, which would be a 5.5 times value return at his price tag for tonight.

The Raptors present a tougher matchup, ranking 7th in defense this season, but they have been average vs PGs (0.59 opponent +/-) and they could be without Kawhi Leonard (ankle) again, ultimately softening their defense as a whole. Fox is scoring 1.23 DK PPM this season and he should play above 30, with this game having a decent spread (TOR -8), that could easily get smaller if Leonard is ruled out. Nonetheless, Fox is simply way too cheap for being at home. (40.3 DK PPG)

Also Consider:

SG/SF: Demar Derozan: (9,200)

Deorzan has been a stud (46.6 DK PPG) and he should see an even bigger usage rate tonight, with both Rudy Gay (heel) and Paul Gasol (foot) out. Since joining The Spurs, Derozan has seen a team high 8.1% usage increase and is producing 1.48 DK PPM with these two players off the floor. Oh, and he is playing The Heat, who have been horrible at defending backcourts this season. (5.4 opponent +/-)

PG: Kyle Lowry: (8,900)

Yet again, if Leonard sits, Lowry needs to be considered. He scored 47.25 DK points in only 29 minutes on Monday and is now averaging 47.3 DK PPG in the four Leonard has sat.

C:Karl-Anthony Towns: (8,800)

KAT is a home player, but tonight, he still needs to be considered on the road, facing The Lakers. (5.0 opponent +/-) He scored 64.5 DK points vs them in their first meeting of the season and his usage would sky rocket if Butler was rested. (3.7% usage increase with Teague and Butler on the bench)

PF/C: LaMarcus Aldridge: (7,900)

Aldridge is such a hit or miss fantasy option, but you have to expect a bigger workload with Gay and Gasol gone from this offense. His rebound rate jumps 6.4% and he is scoring 1.16 DK PPM without these two bigs this year. This is the perfect recipe vs The Heat, who have allowed the 10th most RPG. (5.08 opponent +/-)

SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (8,300)

Mirtoic just can’t be stopped right now, topping 40 DK points in five straight games. Tonight, he is at home, facing the defensively inept Bulls, who have surrendered the 4th most 3PM PG.

SG/SF: Buddy Hield: (6,500)

Hield should also rebound after Sunday’s huge loss. Before this, he was averaging 42 DK PPG in his previous five starts. The price tag is solid, but he would be a better play if Leonard was forced out again.

PG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (5,500)

This is a really friendly price for this matchup vs The Jazz. (4,77 opponent +/-) Last night, DSJ was great, with 36 DK points vs The Wolves. He would also receive an uptick in his rates if Luka Doncic can’t play. (questionable, ankle)

PF/C: Serge Ibaka: (5,300)

If he is back in the starting five. He has been playing some of his best basketball this season (32.4 DK PPG) and if the minutes were back to being high, Ibaka would crush this price tag, especially Leonard can’t suit up. (38.2 DK PPG in the four Leonard has missed)

PF: Pascal Siakam: (5,200)

Would become a proiorty if Leonard was out. He has been the biggest beneficiary in this situation, averaging 34.3 DK PPG and 31.3 MPG.

C: Tristan Thompson: (5,000) 

After Sam Dekker (ankle) left the game, Thompson was terrific vs The Magic, with a 19/16 double double in 34 minutes. (47 DK points) There is no guarantees that he sees this kind of playing time sans Dekker, but he is scoring 0.95 DK PPM this season and The Thunder have allowed the 12th most RPG.

PG/SG: Tyler Johnson: (4,500)

TJ would absolutely be in play if Goran Dragic (knee) is out tonight vs The Spurs. He didn’t start in the lone game Dragic was out this year, but he still scored 28 DK points off the bench. Last season, in the four contests Dragic missed, Johnson was always a solid value. (26.4 DK PPG) Also, this matchup vs The Spurs is a strong one for PGs this season. (2.56 opponent +/-)

PF/C: David Bertrans: (3,200)

Bertrans started for Gay last game and didn’t do much (14.75 DK points in 23.4 minutes), but he should play even more with Gasol now out. He has salavaged 0.71 DK PPM this season and in close to 30 miinutes, Bertrans has a shot at making value vs this Heat defense. (5.01 opponent +/-)

C: Jakob Poeltl: (3,100)

With the starting role, Bertrans is the much safer play, but Poeltl is also in play tonight. Gasol was playing 17.3 MPG this season and Poeltl will likely be forced into a 20+ role vs The Wolves. (5.13 opponent +/-) He is producing 0.84 DK PPM and has averaged 26.3 DK PPG in the last four he has logged at least 20 minutes.

*Please note most of these stats and rankings are from FantasyLabs.com

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