Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 7th, 2017. Tonight we get back to a full slate with ten games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (8,800) Simmons has been absolutely balling lately, averaging 54.25 DK over his last two games. Tonight, he will take on a slow Jazz team (27th in pace), but his price has dropped $300 since his last game, and he should see a bump to his already high rates with starting center Joel Embiid being rested on Tuesday night. His assist percentage has stayed almost the same, but in the minutes Simmons has seen without Embiid this year, he has received a solid 3.3% usage increase, and a 1.4% increase in his rebounding percentage.
With these slight jumps in his rates, he should be able to out produce his current price tag vs this Jazz team that hasn’t been that great against SFs this year. (-0.45 opponent +/-) This season he is scoring an elite 1.34 DK points a minute and assuming this game stays relatively close (UTAH -6.5), Simmons should be able to put up 45-50 DK points with a high ceiling, if he can record his second straight triple double. Also I think its worth pointing out not only will Embiid be out, but guards Markell Fultz (shoulder) and Jerryd Bayless (wrist) will also be sidelined tonight. The sample size is too small to gather his expected rates without all three of these players off the floor, but naturally, Simmons should be relied on heavily in this offense, and we could possibly see him post his highest usage of the season. The match-up obviously isn’t perfect for him, but with The Sixers so shorthanded, I think this is a good opportunity to take advantage of Simmons at a slight discount.
PG/SG: Donovan Mitchell: (4,600) Even in a blowout loss, Micthell still produced off the bench his last time out, scoring 29 DK points vs The Rockets on Sunday night. It took a little bit, but this Jazz coaching staff are finally starting to give their first round pick the minutes he deserves. Over these last three games, he has averaged 30.6 minutes off the bench. The Louisville product has flourished with the higher playing time, averaging 36.1 DK points a game and leading this team with a high 33.2% usage rate, which is a sizable 3.2% increase from his average in the first eight games. To no one’s surprise, his price has hit its season high at $4,600, but he is still too cheap for the massive role he has taken on.
Tonight, he is in a great spot to fill up the stat sheet once again, going against The Sixers,who have been a positive matchup for SGs this season (1.46 opponent +/-), and will be without their defensive back bone, center Joel Embiid. He should also benefit from playing way up in pace against this Philly team, that is the 4th fastest team in the league, compared to this Jazz squad that is the fourth slowest. (7.3 possession increase) There is no reason why his minutes wouldn’t stay high again tonight and he should play roughly 30 minutes, which is plenty of time for him to produce value, as he is leading this team over the last three games, with an efficient 1.16 DK points per minute. Even with his new higher price tag, Mitchell is still a great value and is my favorite play at a weak SG position.
SF/PF: Wesley Johnson: (3,400) After starting SF Danilo Gallinari left Sunday’s game vs The Heat with a hip injury, Johnson was the Clippers primary SF, logging a season high 33.4 minutes off the bench. He didn’t put up a huge DK score by any means (14.75 DK points), but with Gallinari expected to be out tonight, Johnson will most likely start and should see 30-35 minutes vs The Spurs.
His upside is limited, but with this type of playing time, Johnson should be able to score 20+ DK points, as he is averaging a decent 0.76 DK points per minute so far this season. With Kawhi Leonard still out for The Spurs (ankle), this match-up has been dramatically easier for SFs, as they are currently presenting a solid opponent +/- of 2.43 points to starting SFs. He isn’t the most exciting pick, but he is a viable punt play in all formats tonight, just based on the minutes he should see.
PG: T.J. McConnell: (4,600) It hasn’t been announced yet, but with both PGs Markell Fultz (shoulder) and Jerryd Bayless out (wrist), McConnell should enter the starting lineup tonight vs The Jazz. Bayless played in the last few games, but with Fultz out since October 23rd, McConnell has been great leading this second unit, averaging 29.7 DK points over his last five games without Fultz. In these contests, he has been playing 27.4 minutes off the bench and with Bayless now out of the rotation as well, McConnell should see 30+ minutes this evening.
In the minutes he has logged without all three of Fultz, Bayless, and Embiid, McConnell has seen his usage go up 3.5%, and is scoring 43 DK points per 36 minutes. Now, it’s hard to expect over 40 DK points out of McConnell, especially that he may see his assist number drop with more minutes alongside Simmons, but either way, I think he should be able to meet 5-6 times value with the extra minutes, even against this Jazz d that has played PGs well thus far. (-1.65 opponent +/-) Just like with Simmons, his price has slightly dropped because of this match-up, but I think he is another Sixer that should be considered, based on the tight rotation they should use tonight.
Also Consider: John Henson, Robert Covington, Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, Lou Williams, Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Denzel Valentine/Paul Zipser (whoever starts with Nwaba out), Patty Mills, Jamal Murray, Thaddeus Young (Sabonis is out and T.J. Leaf may also be out, which would make this Pacer front line very shorthanded), DeMarre Carroll (nice value that would become a great play if Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is out), Allen Crabbe (better if RHJ is out), Quincy Acy (better if Nets shorthanded up front. RHJ, Jarrett Allen, and Devin Booker are all questionable), Gary Harris, J.J. Redick, Jonas Valancuinas (Gpp only), and Frank Ntilikina (He inching closer to winning this Knicks’ starting PG job. 29 DK points in his last game across 24 minutes vs The Pacers).