What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 8th, 2017. Tonight is a decent slate with five games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.
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PG/SG: Stephen Curry: (9,400) Tonight, The Warriors will be without reigning Finals MVP SF Kevin Durant (thigh), which is a situation they grew very familiar with last season. In the 20 full games that Durant missed last year, Curry took over as the main offensive weapon in this offense, posting a 31.7% usage rate, which was a 2.2% jump from his season average, resulting in 48 DK points per game. With no big named new faces on this Warriors team this season, Curry’s rates should return to similar levels we saw in this situation last season.
Furthermore, this is a great match-up for Curry, taking on PG Jeff Teague and The Wolves, who surprisingly rank in the bottom five in defensive efficiency. (2.91 opponent +/- vs starting PGs) This game is at home in The Oracle, so there is blowout concerns (-8.0 GS), but I think it stays close enough that Curry will hopefully log around 35 minutes. He has a very steady floor and extremely high ceiling with Durant’s usage out of this offense. Don’t over think this one, Curry is the player you want to build around on Wednesday night.
PG/SG: Avery Bradley: (5,500) Bradley has become of the focal point of this Pistons’ offense over their last two wins. Through his first eight games as a Piston his usage was at 23%, but ever since, he has led this team with a high 30.2% usage rate. To no surprise with the higher usage, he has scored 36.5 DK points and then 34 DK points, on a much more efficient 1.02 DK point per minute basis. Tonight he will look to keep this run going, playing up in pace vs The Pacers (10th in pace, DET 26th), who have struggled so far defending SGs, currently presenting a solid opponent +/- of 2.4 points.
His minutes have been very consistent, now playing at least 30 minutes in seven straight games. Tonight, at home, in this competitive game (-6.5 DET), he should see roughly 35 minutes, and hit five times value, with 35-40 DK points upside, depending on how many steals he can rack up. I think this trend of his new higher usage is a game plan that will continue tonight, and he is nice safe value play that can be used with confidence for this five game slate.
SF/PF: Marcus Morris: (4,000) Morris was rested on Monday, but he will be back with the team tonight, and should slide right back into the starting lineup at PF, against The Lakers, who also deploy a small ball lineup with Kyle Kuzma starting at the four spot. His minutes were limited in his first game of the season last Friday (18 minutes) and then again his minutes were lower due to a blowout on Sunday (23), but coming off two days of rest, and with starting center Al Horford out (concussion), Morris should play close to 30 minutes tonight. So far as a Celtic, he has been a solid fantasy player, scoring 1.05 DK points per minute.
Tonight, he is in a nice spot against this Lakers team that has been weak vs PFs, at a high current opponent +/- of 4.64 points, and play at the second fastest pace in the league. Also, Horford is the highest rated defensive player in the league this year, and him being out should keep this game closer than its opening line suggests. (-8.5 BOS) In the minutes I am expecting, he should definitely top 20 DK points tonight, and is a great bargain at only $4,000, that is easy to get in with his SF/PF eligibility.
C: Aaron Baynes: (3,500) Additionally, with Horford out, Baynes should start at center, and log the most minutes he has seen this season. He has only topped 20 minutes in five of his 11 games, but tonight with Horford sitting, he will likely play 25-30 minutes vs The Lakers. Baynes is a solid defender and rebounder and The Celtics will need his size vs Lakers’ center Brook Lopez. Lopez may be a great offensive player, but he is nobody to be worry about on the defensive end.
Baynes is averaging 0.82 DK points per minute and he should have no issues producing six to seven times value vs this Laker’s team that ranks in the bottom ten in rebounds allowed per game.(1.75 opponent +/-) He may end up being a very chalky play, but he is a hard player to keep out of your lineup, with value he presents at his near minimum price tag.
Also Consider: Alex Len (very much in play if he starts for Tyson Chandler), Marcus Smart, T.J. Warren, Kyle Kuzma, Frank Ntilikina, Daniel Theis, Patrick McCaw/Andre Iguolda, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Clarkson, Kyle O’Quinn (great value if Porzingis is out), Enes Kanter (also would see a sizable bump if Porzi sat out), Terry Rozier, and Brook Lopez (30+ minutes in these last two games without Nance and you have to expect this Boston defense to take a big hit without Horford).