What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for November 9th, 2017. Thursday night’s slate is a solid slate with five games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
PG/SG: James Harden: (10,700) After having a slow start to the season, by his standards, Harden finally erupted on Sunday night, torching a tough Jazz defense for a career high 56 points along with 13 assists, two rebounds, and two steals in 35 minutes. (83.5 DK points) His usage has still been extremely high this year (36.2%), but he finally got out of his shooting slump, hitting 76% of his shots from the field, including a very high 87% of his three pointers. He hasn’t played since this game on Sunday, and he should be extremely fresh for tonight’s big match-up vs The Cavs. If you have been following The NBA this year, you know how terrible this Cleveland defense has been. Right now they rank dead last in defensive efficiency and will be without one of their better overall defenders, center Tristan Thompson. (calf)
PG Derick Rose is also out (ankle), which actually helps the Cavs on the defensive end, but Harden should still have no problems carving this defense up, that really hasn’t slowed down any PG they have faced. (8.81 opponent +/-) As expected, this game has the highest O/U game total of the night at 228.5 points. He should also benefit with this game being played at home, where he is averaging 3.5 more DK points a game this season. In fact, in the 22 home games that he played in last year, that had a game total of at least 225 points, Harden was outstanding averaging 61 DK points a game. The beard is severely under-priced for his match-up vs this soft Cavs defense, and is a core play for me in all formats on Thursday night.
PG/SG: Jordan Clarkson: (4,400) Clarkson has been huge for this Lakers team since they lost PF Larry Nance Jr. (hand), averaging 31.75 DK points off the bench over these last three games. His minutes have slightly increased, at 24 minutes a night during this span, as they are playing smaller lineups with Nance out. Twenty four minutes may seem low, but Clarkson is a score first guard, who needs the ball in his hands to produce. So far, this year, his usage has seen a massive jump, as he is averaging a team high 30.5% usage rate, compared to 23% rate he saw off the bench last season. He is now scoring a very productive 1.11 DK points per minute.
Tonight, he faces off against The Wizards, who have been solid vs PGs (0.51 opponent +/-), but I think he will be just fine, as both of these teams rank inside the top ten in pace. (221.5 O/U) This game has blowout concerns, with The Wizards favored by 10.5 points, but realistically there is no way this spread should be this large, as The Lakers have won three of their last four games, while The Wizards have dropped three straight on their home floor, including embarrassing losses to The Suns and Mavs. Either way, Clarkson should log 20-25 minutes, and hit five times value, with 30 DK point upside, at a very reasonable price of only $4,400. I think he is a fine play in both cash games and GPPs, especially when considering that he may get overlooked. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
SG/SF: Trevor Ariza: (4,700) Ariza has been solid since returning from a foot injury, averaging 26.1 DK points in his last five games. His foot seems to be fully healed, as he is starting, and seeing 34.8 minutes a game. As I mentioned above, The Rockets haven’t played since Sunday, and their main players should log heavy minutes tonight in a gorgeous match-up vs The Cavs, who are the worst defense in The NBA.
The Rockets currently boast the highest team total of the slate at 117 points, and Ariza should be very active in this spot, as LeBron James and this Cavs unit, have been very ineffective at defending SFs. (6.55 opponent +/-) Not only have they been bad against SFs, but they are giving up the most three pointers a game and have allowed their opponents to hit a league high 41.9% of their shots from beyond the arc. Plain and simple, Ariza is another Rocket that is priced too low for this match-up, and is a very strong value that should be in your lineup.
SG/SF: Brandon Ingram: (5,900) Very much like with Clarkson, Ingram has stepped up for The Lakers since Nance went down. He is averaging 34 DK points in these past three games, and it is mainly because he has picked it up on the glass. In these three outings, he is averaging a 11.2 rebound percentage, which 4.9% increase from his average rate this season. He also has been seeing a little more playing time at 37 minutes a game, which is significant difference from the 31.8 minutes he was logging before.
Tonight he has a real chance to keep producing, vs The Wizards, who have allowed the most DK points to SFs this season. (7.35 opponent +/-) Like I said earlier, I think this current spread of 10.5 points is rather dramatic, and I think we see Ingram get around 35 minutes again on Thursday night. His higher rebounding rate should continue, and Ingram is a steady mid-tier target who has upside if he can pick up a double double.
Also Consider: Julius Randle, Ryan Anderson (With no Tristan Thompson for The Cavs they will be playing mostly small ball lineups with Kevin Love playing the five. I think this kind of forces The Rockets to play starting center Clint Capela less, making Anderson log more minutes at center, which should increase his rebounding opportunities), J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert (will start for Rose), Norman Powell, Lonzo Ball, Jonas Valancuinas (always risky, but minutes should be higher against The Pelicans’ twin towers, if he can stay out of foul trouble. Which is a big if), Dwayne Wade (should play some point with Rose out), P.J. Tucker, and Nene (20+ DK points in his last two games).