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DraftKings NBA Picks – October 19th

Happy Friday everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings picks for October 19th. Tonight, there is nine games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,600)

Following a 77 DK point game in the win over The Rockets on Wednesday, AD is now back at home, where he always played better last season. (4.8 more DK PPG) Even though they ran away with it on Wednesday (131-112), Davis still played 39 minutes. The spread is a scarier tonight vs The Kings (NO -10.5), but I think Davis and the rest of The Pelicans starters play 35+ minutes again.

Jazz center Rudy Gobert torched this Kings frontcourt for 44.25 DK points on opening night, bringing this matchup to a 14.43 opponent +/- for Davis. This is only one game of data, but based on opponent +/-, this is the second best matchup for any player on DraftKings tonight. AD should eclipse 60 DK points with ceiling close to 80.

Value Picks:

PG: Elfrid Payton: (5,800)

Sporting a fresh new haircut, Payton flourished in his Pelicans debut, notching a triple double in the road win over The Rockets. (43.5 DK points) He completely took over Rajon Rondo’s role from last season, leading this team with a 27.8% assist rate. The coaches also weren’t shy with giving him a full workload, running him out there for 36.5 minutes. Payton has always been a strong fantasy option (1.1 DK PPM in 2017), but the only problem with rostering him has always been the uncertainty if he would end up playing starter like minutes.

After the impressive first game with the club, in a huge road win, Payton should be in line for a full amount of minutes tonight vs The Kings. With De’Aaron Fox at point, The Kings have struggled at defending PGs and they are the 4th worst ranked defense through one game this season. We can’t expect another triple double, but Payton should exceed five times value, and he is the best point per dollar value this Pelcians has to offer on Friday night. (121.5 implied team total, highest of the slate)

C: Boban Marjanovic: (3,900)

It was unclear how much Boban was actually going to play this season, but Wednesday night, he and starter Marcin Gortat basically split the duties at center vs The Nuggets. (17.5 for Majanonvic and 18 for Gortat) As expected, the human giant that is Boban, smashed with the uptick in minutes, scoring 18 points and eight rebounds off the bench. (27 DK points)

At this point in his career, Gortat isn’t going to play heavy minutes, so I do believe this was a plan by HC Doc Rivers to give Marjanovic a decent amount of playing off the bench. After his showing Wednesday, the minutes should continue tonight vs The Thunder. He nearly scores two DK points a minute (1.98 DK PPM in 2017) and in 10-15 minutes, Boban should score over 20 DK points, with obvious upside.

SF: Cedi Osman: (5,400)

Osman shined as The Cavs’ new starting SF Wednesday night, scoring 17 points, ten rebounds, four assists, and two steals in 33 minutes of work vs The Raptors. (40.5 DK points) He saw a solid 19.2% usage rate and only trailed starting PG George Hill, with a 23.5 assist %. The double double bonus helped, but in this loss, he scored 1.15 DK PPM. I think that will regress to close to 1.0 DK PPM, but either way, this still makes him a strong candidate to get us five times value.

He will be going against The Wolves, who ranked 27th in defensive efficiency last season, and 25th through one game in 2018. The Cavs also struggled on defense in their first game without LeBron (116 points to The Raptors) and this game should be a back and forth contest. (223.5 O/U game total, second highest of the night) Osman should approach 30 DK points and I think his $1,200 price increase will make most DFS players look elsewhere.

Also Consider:

SG/SF: Kawhi Leonard: (8,500)

I don’t like targeting many players in the lowest total of a full slate like this, but Leonard remains underpriced. He scored 43.75 DK points across 37.2 minutes in his first game as a Raptor. The upside is a little limited vs The Celtics (1st in efficiency last season), but Leonard is a safe bet for over 40 DK points.

SF/PF: Aaron Gordon: (8,200)

Gordon flashed in game one, scoring 50.5 DK points in 38 minutes vs The Heat, including 4/5 from beyond the arc. He posted a 25.8% usage rate and he should lead this team in usage on a nightly basis. Tonight, he plays The Hornets, who should be very weak inside without Dwight Howard this season.

SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (7,000)

Mirotic picked up right where he left off last season, scoring 51 DK points in 30 minutes vs The Rockets. He hit 6/8 from three and The Kings allowed the second most 3PM PG last season. The price is fair, but Mirotic is a solid mid-tier target, that helps you get more shares of this total.

SF: Caris LaVert: (6,300)

If Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (hip, questionable) is out again, LaVert becomes an excellent target. He started Wednesday and posted a team high 33.8% usage rate vs The Pistons. (40.5 DK points) Plus, he played 34 minutes, which was the most playing time he has received since last January. Tonight, he plays The Knicks, who ranked T1 in pace on opening night.

C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (6,300)

43.75 DK points in 38.25 minutes vs a very stout Jazz defense in game one. If he can avoid foul trouble vs Davis, WCS should play 35+ and put up a double double vs The Pelicans.

SF: Taurean Prince: (6,200)

His usage stayed up after last season, leading the team at 28.1% on Wednesday vs The Knicks. (36 DK points) He only played 32 minutes in this game, but they took the starters out with a few minutes left. This game has a 7.5 point spread tonight vs The Grizzlies and it should be more competitive, hopefully putting Prince over 35 minutes. Including the loss to The Knicks, Prince is averaging 41.5 DK PPG in his past five.

PG: Trae Young: (5,600)

Young isn’t going to lead The Hawks to many wins, but he should a viable fantasy option, due to usage. He saw a 23.7% usage on Wednesday and scored 27.5 DK points, across 33.1 minutes vs The Knicks. If he can improve on shot tonight (5/14 from the field vs The Knicks), he has 30-35 DK point upside vs The Grizzlies.

PG: Shia Gilgeous-Alexandre: (3,800)

The rookie out of Kentucky had a nice first career game, coming off a strong preseason, scoring 22 DK points in 28 minutes off the bench vs The Nuggets. This was 0.78 DK PPM and I think we can expect 25-30 MPG off the bench for the rookie. The ceiling is low, but he should get close to 20 DK points.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

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