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DraftKings NBA Picks – October 20th

What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings picks for October 20th. Saturday night’s slate is a full slate of ten games. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG: John Wall: (8,500)

Wall impressed in his first home game of the season, scoring 50.25 DK points in 36 minutes vs The Heat. He has always been better at home and for more recent sample, he is now averaging 57.8 DK PPG in his past five home tilts, compared to 50.3 DK PPG in his last five away from Washington. On Saturday night, he will be at home again, taking on The Raptors. They were a strong defensive group last season (7th in efficiency), but this was never a defense that bothered Wall, with him averaging 55.96 DK PPG in six matchups.

This game has the third highest O/U game total of Saturday’s slate and The Wizards have an implied team total of 108.75 points. In the 22 home game last season that The Wizards had a team total of 108 points or more, Wall averaged 46.97 DK PPG. Starting the year off with a devastating loss (112-113 to The Heat), Wall and his teammates should be up and ready for this game vs one of the best in the conference, and I think he is a safe bet for 50+ DK points.

Value Picks:

SG/SF: Jimmy Butler: (7,700)

The salaries for Saturday’s slate were released before the end of Friday night’ slate, creating a huge mis price on Butler. Last night, he was $8,100 vs The Cavs. He topped his strong opening night performance vs The Spurs, with 33 points, seven rebounds, four steals, three assists, and two blocks across 36 minutes in the win over The Cavs. (57.75 DK points) Just as advertised, Butler has been making a statement to start this season, now averaging 52 DK PPG through two. He has been dominating the usage (28.5%) and scoring a tremendous 1.53 DK PPM.

This usage rate he has been seeing is a 3.2% increase form a year ago. He will look to continue this run vs The Mavs tonight. Dallas has only played one game, but in that game, they gave up 121 points to The Suns, giving them the worst efficiency rating, thus far. But, realistically, no matter the defense he is facing, you are locking in this highly motivated Butler at this price.

PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (6,900)

In the first game of the season, LaVine took advantage of this Bulls’ team being shorthanded, scoring 45.25 DK points on a team high 33.6% usage rate. The Bulls were without Lauri Markkanen (elbow), Denzel Valentine (ankle), and Kris Dunn (personal). All three of these players will be out again for tonight night’s home opener vs The Pistons. Once again, the offense should run through LaVine and we can expect another usage over 30%.

He produced 1.4 DK PPM in game one and with roughly 35 minutes of work (CHI +3.5), LaVine should hit fives time value, with 50 DK point upside. With only three games in play on Thursday, LaVine wasn’t very popular, and I don’t expect this to change for tonight’s ten game slate. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

C: Jarrett Allen: (5,900)

As a rookie last season, Allen only played 20 MPG, but through the first two games of this year, he is averaging 31.5 MPG as The Nets’ new starting center. He scored 0.91 DK PPM last season and as expected, he has been a rock solid fantasy option with the jump in minutes, posting a double double in each game, at 38.1 DK PPG. Tonight, he faces The Pacers, who ranks 26th in defensive efficiency in their first two contests.

They were always a slightly positive matchup for centers (0.42 +/- in 2017) and Allen should be able to put up another double double in this spot, assuming he doesn’t get in foul trouble. Even though his numbers have been excellent compared to his DraftKings salary, I doubt many people will own Allen tonight. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

Also Consider:

SG/SF: Kawhi Leonard: (8,400)

Similar to Butler, playing last night hasn’t given DraftKings a chance to adjust Leonard’s salary. He is $100 cheaper than Friday night, when he scored 51 DK points vs a tough Celtics’ defense. (1st last season) He is currently averaging a 35.1% usage rate as a Raptor, which is a 3.5% bump from last year with The Spurs. There is no one The Wizards who can handle Leonard and he should get five to six times value in this spot.

C: Deandre Ayton: (7,200)

Ayton had no issues vs Deandre Jordan and The Mavs in his first real NBA game, scoring 45 DK PPG in 36.3 minutes. Tonight, he will be on the road, but in a great spot, vs The Nuggets, who are a 7.96 opponent +/- after game one.

SF: Caris LeVert: (6,500)

LeVert can’t be stopped right now, topping 40 DK points in each of his first two games. He has played 34 and 32 minutes, compared to his 26.3 MPG average last year. Plus, he is leading The Nets with a 31% usage rate. This is massive 8.6% jump from 2017. Vs The Pacers, he should crush this silly price tag, assuming Rondae Hollis-Jefferson remains out. (personal, has missed the first two games)

PF/C: Bobby Portis: (6,300)

As the starting PF for Bulls, sans Marrkanen, Portis generated 43.75 DK points vs a tough Sixers defense on Thursday. He logged 33 minutes and if he sees this type of playing time again, there is no question he will return value. (1.14 DK PPM last season)

SF/PF Trevor Ariza: (5,500)

The veteran was huge for The Suns in their first win, scoring 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, and a steal in 37 minutes vs The Mavs. With no James Harden to hog the ball from him, Ariza is going to be much more involved with this young Suns’ team. If The Suns can keep it close tonight in Denver (PHO +9.5), Ariza will end up being a very strong value at only $5,500.

C: Wendell Carter: (4,000)

Carter didn’t shine like Portis in the first game, but he dealt with foul trouble in his NBA debut, vs Joel Embiid. Tonight, he is in a better spot, vs Andre Drummond, who draws far less fouls than Embiid. He scored 0.9 DK PPM on Thursday and if he gets up to at least 25 minutes, Carter should top five times value.

PG: Antonio Blakeney: (3,500)

Cameron Payne started for Dunn, but it was Blakeney who played the most minutes at point. (30 off the bench) He scored 24.25 DK points vs The Sixers and if the playing time continues, Blakeney is a solid punt, that could get you 20+ DK points.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

 

 

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