Welcome back guys.. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for October 25th. Thursday’s slate is a small one, with only four games. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
SF/PF: LeBron James: (10,500)
This Western Conference tilt, between The Lakers and Nuggets, is the best game to target of tonight’s four. It has the highest O/U game total of the slate, by a large 17 points. (236.5 points) Plus, the spread is only three points in favor of The Nuggets. Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo are still suspended, which will keep James in a godly role tonight. In these past two, with them away from the team, he has posted a 29% usage rate and generated an elite 1.7 DK PPM.
He picked up a double double in only 28 minutes last night vs The Suns, and with normal starter like minutes, James has a very good chance of tallying his first triple double in the purple and gold. It makes zero sense, but DraftKings has dropped James’ salary down $600 from last night. At $10,500, The King is the best point per dollar value of this four game slate.
SG: Gary Harris: (6,500)
Harris’s score was disappointing on Tuesday (31.75 DK points), but this was due to them blowing out The Kings by 24 points. This limited Harris to only 26.2 minutes. But, on a point per minute basis, he has been great in these last two games with Will Barton (groin) out the lineup, scoring 1.2 DK PPM. The usage has also been higher, at 24.2%. Barton will remain sidelined for Thursday’s matchup vs The Lakers. This is a dream spot for Harris, with Los Angeles ranking 1st in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. They have also allowed 13.5 made three pointers per game, which is the 4th most in the league.
This all equates to a high opponent +/- of 6.97 points. This game should remain close, from start to finish, and in 35-40 minutes, Harris should approach 40 DK points, with big upside. He is without a doubt, the strongest guard value available.
SG: Josh Hart: (6,200)
HC Luke Walton finally came to his senses last night and started Hart at SG over Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The final result was 26 DK points vs The Suns, but he only logged 26 minutes, with The Lakers running away with this game early. (131-113) As I talked about above, this home game vs The Nuggets will be much closer than last night and as a starter, Hart should see 35-40 minutes.
He is putting up 1.1 DK PPM thus far this season and despite The Nuggets being the #2 defense in the league, Hart should still achieve five times value. Hopefully people go elsewhere after the slight disappointment from last night, because Hart is one of the better values in this projected shootout.
SF/PF: Jermai Grant: (3,800)
Grant has seen a big jump in minutes this season, playing 28.1 MPG off the bench. This is far more playing time than starting PF Patrick Patterson. (16.6 MPG) The production hasn’t been the best (18.8 DK PPG), but he scored 0.82 DK PPM last year, so his DK scores have to improve soon, as his shot gets better. (26%)
Nonetheless, you aren’t finding another player that plays this much at this soft of a price tonight. The matchup vs The Celtics is tough (1st in efficiency), but Grant should still come close to cracking 20 DK points. He is a necessary play if you want to fit in LeBron.
C: Nikola Jokic: (9,800)
I always would rather roster Jokic at home, but this matchup vs The Lakers is just too perfect for him. They are sitting at a 10.16 opponent +/-, which makes this best possible matchup for any active player in this slate. In these past two with Barton out, Jokic has been a tremendous fantasy producer, scoring 1.6 DK PPM. The price tag is fair, but The Joker could explode vs this defense.
PF/C: Kevin Love: (8,500)
Love’s usage has been strong this season. (26.3%) He is averaging 1.3 DK PPM and if this game vs The Pistons doesn’t get out of reach (DET -8), Love should play 35+ and get over 40 DK points in this positive matchup. (3.28 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Kyle Kuzma: (7,400)
Like every Laker, Kuzma was limited on Wednesday. (29 minutes) He is still scoring 1.1 DK PPM in these last two and if the game stays true to it’s small spread, Kuzma could log the most minutes of any Laker, like we saw on Monday night. (52.5 DK points in 45.1 minutes in the OT loss to The Spurs)
PG/SG: Jamal Murray: (5,800)
He was horrible in the first contest with Barton out (8.5 DK points vs The Warriors), but rebounded nicely in the blowout win over The Kings on Tuesday. (29.75 DK points in only 18.3 minutes) His usage will be up and matchup is one of the best he could ask for, against The Lakers. (2.16 opponent +/-) In a normal sized slate he would be better in GPPs, but with only four games to target, Murray is viable in all formats.
SG/SF: Evan Fournier: (5,600)
After only logging 24.2 through games one and two, Fournier has played over 30 in back to back games. This has led to 45 DK points vs The Sixers and then 39 DK points vs The Celtics, two teams that ranked in the top three in defensive efficiency last season. The Magic beat The Celtics on their home floor, so I don’t see why Fournier’s minutes wouldn’t stay up for tonight’s decent matchup vs The Blazers. (1.08 opponent +/-)
C: Javale McGee: (5,300)
It has been hard to ignore how well McGee has been playing as a Laker. He is scoring a career best 35 DK PPG in 23.5 MPG. If you do the math, this is 1.5 DK PPM, which is huge leap from his 1.2 DK PPM median as a Warrior. I do worry about his one on one matchup vs Nikola Jokic, but due to the high total, McGee is the kind of risk worth taking in such a small slate.
PG: Ish Smith: (4,400)
Reggie Jackson is fully healthy, but Smith has still played steady minutes off the bench. (29.5 MPG) His shooting has been awesome at 60% from the field and in his last two, he has scored 29.2 DK PPG. It’s hard to expect this type of score, but he should get 20-25 DK points going against this Cavs’ defense that is second to last in efficiency and rating as extremely high 9.72 opponent +/-, which is the third best overall matchup for any player suiting up on Thursday.
PF: Zach Collins: (3,600)
In a reserve role, Collins has been a spark off the bench for The Blazers. (21.1 DK PPG) His lack of high minutes caps his upside (20.2 MPG), but he has a chance of getting five to six times value vs this Magic’s front court that has always struggled inside. (5th most total rebounds allowed per game)