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DraftKings NBA Picks – October 26th

It is finally Friday and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for October 26th. Tonight, we get seven games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG: Chris Paul: (9,200)

Paul will be returning from his two game suspension, but The Rockets will now be without two other starters, James Harden (hamstring) and James Ennis. (hamstring) Ennis doesn’t really matter, but Harden being sidelined is a massive bump for Paul. He goes back to being the type of player we saw from him with The Hornets and Clippers, as The Rockets primary ball handler tonight. In the nine contests he started without Harden last season, Paul saw 4% usage increase, a massive 13.1% assist percentage jump, helping him to 46 DK PPG.

In all the minutes he logged with The Beard off the floor, he scored 1.53 DK PPM. The lone issue with tonight, and it really is a smaller issue in the context of everything, is that he is facing a strong defensive Clippers’ backcourt. Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley are two of the best on ball defenders in the association, but no matter who is on other side, Paul is well rested and ready to have a big night in a winning effort vs Doc Rivers and his former team. The spread is a very small four points and in 35-40 minutes of action, Paul should exceed 50 DK points.

Value Picks:

SG: Damyean Dotson: (4,200)

Dotson had a career night in the blowout loss to The Heat on Wednesday (87-110), scoring 20 points, to go along with ten rebounds, two assists, a block, and a steal in 34 minutes off the bench. (42 DK points) He shot eight threes in the game and posted a season high 20.3% usage rate. He has now gotten better in each game since rookie Kevin Knox went down with the ankle injury, averaging 30.8 DK PPG in these past three. Also, it’s worth pointing out, that even in the tight game before the eruption vs The Heat, Dotson still logged 31.3 minutes vs The Bucks. (30 DK points. 113-124) So, it seems like no matter the outcome of the game, Dotson is in line for roughly 30 minutes a night until Knox is healthy. (GSW -12)

He is averaging 1.1 DK PPM this season and tonight’s matchup vs The Warriors is average (10th in efficiency), but it is a small pace bump for The Knicks. (GSW 10th in pace, NYK 13th) Even at a season high $4,200, Dotson is still a very strong value play, that can be used in all formats.

PG: De’Aaron Fox: (6,800)

Even with a 16.75 DK point game mixed in, Fox is still averaging a great 36.5 DK PPG. His usage is up 1.34% from last season and he is playing 32.5 MPG, which is 4.8 more MPG. If the game stays close, he will log even higher minutes than his season average says. In the two games that were decided by single digit points this year, Fox has played 37.2 MPG. Tonight’s matchup vs The Wizards is expected to be competitive (WAS -5) and very high scoring. (235 O/U game total, tied for the highest of Friday night) Plus, he will be at home (10.8 more DK PPG this season), facing The Wizards, who are perfect matchup for Fox’ skill set.

They are 23rd in defensive efficiency and are the fastest team in The NBA. (4.1 opponent +/-) Fox scored 45 DK points vs a slow and tough Grizzlies’ team in his last game (27th in pace and 5th in defensive efficiency), so he should absolutely flourish in this spot vs The Wizards.

PG: Kemba Walker: (8,200)

Walker has been outstanding this season (47.2 DK PPG) and the one thing people aren’t going to realize is that he has only played at home once. That was in the first game of year, when he dropped 55.5 DK points on The Bucks. Tonight, he will finally be back at home vs The Bulls. Why does this matter? Because in his career, Walker has presented notable home/away splits. Over the last five years, he has scored 2.8 more DK PPG in Charlotte.

For a more recent sample, in his last five home games, he is scoring 42 DK PPG. His usage has skyrocketed from 27.7% last season to a huge 37% in the first five games of this season. He should embarrass Zach LaVine and this Bulls’ defense that has been horrible with Kris Dunn out. (25th in efficiency) Walker’s current price tag doesn’t in any way reflect how well he has been playing and I think we see a huge 50+ DK performance from him on Friday night.

Also Consider:

SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo: (11,700)

The Greek Freak is having an excellent start to the season (64.4 DK PPG) and he is coming off one of his best DK scores ever, scoring 81.5 DK points vs a tough Sixers’ defense. Tonight, he heads to Minnesota to face the defensively inept Wolves. (22nd in efficiency this season and 27th last year) They are currently presenting an opponent +/- of 4.85 opponent +/- and this game is tied for the highest total of the slate. (235 points) Giannis should remain hot and put up 65+ DK points.

SF/PF: Tobias Harris: (7,300)

Harris has been awesome to begin the season, averaging 40.9 DK PPG in 37.3 MPG. He has topped 40 DK points in three of four games and should again tonight vs The Rockets. (1.07 opponent +/-)

C: Clint Capela: (6,700)

Capela’s role doesn’t change much sans Harden, but he is simply underpriced at $6,700. Across four games this season, he is averaging 33.5 DK PPG and 32.5 MPG. The Clippers are a good spot for centers (2.41 opponent +/-) and Capela should get value at home, where he scored 3.1 more DK PPG in 2017.

SG/SF: Eric Gordon: (6,100)

In these past two without Paul, Gordon has been fairly productive, scoring 28.6 DK PPG. In the past one, without both Paul and Ennis, he played 40 minutes as a starter. The minutes should be high again this close tilt vs The Clippers and so should the fantasy numbers, with him seeing a team high 4.2% usage bump and scoring 36.7 DK PPG in the nine games Harden sat last year.

SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,500)

Starting PF Bobby Portis (MCL) got hurt last game and only played 20 minutes, which set up Parker for his best showing as a Bull. He scored 30.75 DK points in 31 minutes vs The Hornets. It’s unclear if he will start for Portis, but either way, we are looking at for 30+ minutes for a player who is scoring 1.03 DK PPM this season. He is a fine target in all formats at this price tag.

PG/SG: Cameron Payne: (4,600)

Payne went off for 39.25 DK points vs The Hornets and that is the same team he will play tonight. His usage was at 23.4% and he saw 30.5 minutes. With Portis and Dunn both injured, these numbers should stay up and he is a decent value play, that could get you 25-30 DK points.

C: Brook Lopez: (4,800)

Lopez has played over 30 minutes in two straight games (29.8 DK PPG) and if the playing time stays up, he should smash value vs The Wolves, who are a ridiculous 8.19 opponent +/- for starting centers, which is the second best overall matchup for a starting player in this slate.

C: Wendell Carter Jr.: (4,300)

From a real basketball standpoint, I have been very disappointed in the rookie, but with Portis gone, Carter has to play a good amount. He played 30 minutes last game after Portis went down and he has now played over 30 in two consecutive games. The upside is limited, but Carter should top 20 DK points in this nice matchup vs The Hornets. (2.42 opponent +/-)

SG/SF: Gerald Green: (3,500)

Green should see close to 30 minutes off the bench with Ennis and Harden out. With Harden in, but Paul and Ennis out last game, Green logged a season high 28 minutes off the bench. He struggled (9.0 DK points), but this was in arguably the toughest matchup there is, vs The Jazz. (1st in efficiency last season) Tonight’s matchup vs The Clippers isn’t worlds better (9th in efficiency this season), but at least they are rating as a positive individual matchup for Green. (1.01 opponent +/-) He scores 0.84 DK PPM and with 25-30 minutes, Green should top 20 DK points.

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