DraftKings NBA Picks – October 27th

Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for October 27th, 2017. Friday night’s slate is a solid one with seven games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

PF/C: Draymond Green: (7,400) Green’s 35.7 DK points a game this season is a little watered down with three consecutive tough road match-ups mixed in his first five games. (NO,MEM,DAL) In his two other games, he was at home in The Oracle, and is averaging 43 DK points. Tonight, he remains at home and will be facing off against a Wizards team he has had plenty of success against in the past. Over the last two seasons, in Green’s four meetings with The Wizards, he is averaging a tremendous 54.63 DK points a game. They have been a neutral defense vs bigs so far (0.02 opponent +/-), but I don’t think any of The Wizards’ front court players possess a threat to Green’s production.

Both of these teams rank inside the top ten in pace and this tilt has the highest O/U game total of the slate (231 points) by a wide margin (8.5 points). The 11.5 point spread is a concern, but you are going to want some exposure to this game. Let’s be honest, The Dubs are usually always heavy home favorites on their home floor. The large spreads have never really effected Green, as he averaged 37.7 DK points in the 39 home games that they were favored by ten or more points last season. 37 DK points is right at five times value for him at his current salary, but I am expecting 40+ DK points from him tonight, when factoring his history vs The Wizards and their increase in pace so far this year. (6.3 possession increase from last season)

Value Picks:                 

PF/C: Enes Kanter: (5,900) Kanter was great for us on Tuesday night, pouring in 16 points, 19 rebounds, and one block vs The Celtics. (41.75 DK points) Even though this game became very one sided, Kanter still saw 30 minutes with the start. Coming off this performance, Kanter should see at least 25 minutes with the potential for 30+ tonight in this game vs The Nets, that is expected to be very competitive, with The Knicks only favored by two points. Not only should this contest remain close, but it should be very high scoring (220.5 point O/U), making it one of the best games to target on Friday night.

Kanter should be very active in this match-up, as The Nets have allowed the 7th most rebounds and are the 7th worst rated defense this season. He is scoring an elite 1.19 DK points per minute and he should put up close to 30 DK points vs this defense with 40 DK point upside depending on how high they let his minutes get. His new $5,900 price tag is fair, but he is still a strong GPP target at this salary, that is also viable in cash games depending on how some injury situations turn out later this evening.

PG: Ramon Sessions: (4,400) After a bad outing in the season opener vs The Thunder (10 DK points), Sessions has been averaging 25 DK points over his last two games. Just like with Kanter, Sessions should benefit from this game environment tonight vs The Nets. So far, this season, The Knicks have only competed in one game that they didn’t lose by double digits. In that tight game vs The Pistons (111-107), Sessions was relied on as a starter, logging 33 minutes in the loss, compared to the other two blowout losses, where he only played 21 and 26 minutes.

As I previously said, this Knicks-Nets game is expected to stay close all night, with Vegas only favoring The Knicks by two points. This should force Sessions into playing 30+ minutes against this bad Nets defense, that has an opponent +/- 2.23 points to starting PGs. With this type of playing time, Sessions has a great chance of returning six times value at his $4,400 salary. Rookie PG Frank Ntilikina is expected to return (ankle), but he will be slowly worked back into this rotation, and I think he will take away from back PG Jarret Jack’s playing time, not Sessions. UPDATE: Out of nowhere The Knicks announce they will start Jarret Jack tonight. An official lineup isn’t out, but I think its safe to say he will start for Sessions. Sessions isn’t usable in DFS now and Jack enters punt consideration at only $3,200 in this very nice spot. 

PF/C: Frank Kaminsky: (5,100) Even though Kaminksy keeps producing with center Cody Zeller out (knee), he has had a low 6.6% average ownership in GPPs over his last three starts. He has been coming off the bench, but this hasn’t slowed him down at all, as he is averaging 31.6 DK points and 31.6 minutes in these last three games with Zeller sidelined.

As you can see he is scoring right at 1.0 DK points per minute and with Zeller already ruled out for tonight, he should play 30+ minutes again off the bench vs The Rockets. This match-up hasn’t been great (-1.14 opponent +/-), but with Nene out of the lineup (Achilles), Kaminsky will be going against some very small lineups with Clint Capela as their only natural center. Kaminksy should once again top five times value and is a fine play in both cash games and GPPs tonight.

Also Consider: Jamal Murray, Spencer Dinwiddie (nice play if Russell is out again, but he has been upgraded to questionable), Jeremy Lamb, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (really like how he has benfited from playing way up in pace with The Lakers), Ryan Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (I like him better if Russell is out. He saw a 3.9% usage bump with Russell out last game), DeMarre Carroll (same thing as RHJ, he saw a 4.8% usage jump with no Russell), Kent Bazemore (if Schorder is out), Caris LeVert (if Russell is out), Jakob Poeltl (better if Nogueria is out), Julius Randle (excellent 29.25 DK points in only 19 minutes in the win over The Wizards. He was huge at the end of this game and I think the coaches reward him by playing him more tonight), Dejounte Murray (nice bounce back target for GPPs), Kyle Kuzma, Marcon Bellinelli (if Schroder is out), and Luc Mbha a Moute (36 minutes last game with Ariza out).

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