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DraftKings NBA Picks – October 29th

Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for October 29th. Tonight, we get a full slate, with nine games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

SG/SF: Jimmy Butler: (8,200)

Tonight’s Wolves vs Lakers matchup should live up to it’s slate high O/U game total. (239.5 points) It’s no surprise that this is the highest total of this nine game slate, by a sizable seven points, with both of these clubs ranking inside the top ten in pace and in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency this season. (6.49 opponent +/-) Butler was dealing with an illness and was a GTD on Saturday, but eventually played and struggled vs The Bucks. (19.25 DK points)

He only logged 24.1 minutes in the blowout loss (95-125), but before this, Butler was averaging  45.7 DK PPG in 35.2 MPG. (25.4% usage rate) There is no blowout concerns tonight (LA -1.5) and we should see him get right back on track in this gorgeous matchup vs The Lakers. He is a great value no matter what, but if Andrew Wiggins (quad) sits again, Butler becomes an even stronger target. (1.7% usage increase with Wiggins off the floor last season)

Value Picks:

SG/SF: Khris Middleton: (6,900)

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the highest used played in the league (35.1%) and he will be out tonight vs The Raptors with a concussion. This opens up so much opportunity for the rest of The Bucks and when The Greek Freak sat last season, Middleton was the player that led the way. In the seven full games without The All Star forward, Middleton saw a 4.4% usage increase and scored 46.8 DK PPG in 39.1 MPG. This doesn’t even factor in that Jabari Parker is gone and with The Bulls this season. In the four games that both Giannis and Parker were out in 2017, Middleton was even better, scoring a whopping 53.5 DK PPG, behind a team high 30.9% usage rate.

His matchup vs The Raptors looks ugly (9th in efficiency), but they will be without the best wing defender in the league, Kawhi Leonard. (rest) In the one other game Leonard was rested this season, The Raptors allowed a season high 113 points to The Wizards. Middleton, who in my opinion is one of the most underrated players in The NBA, should shine in this situation. Expect six to seven times value, making him a core play for this nine game slate.

PG: Kyle Lowry: (8,000)

Lowry was a monster in the lone game without Leonard this season, putting up 55.25 DK points across 34.4 minutes vs The Wizards. He has averaged a 19.6% usage rate this year, but in this game, he saw a massive jump, all the way up to a team high 30.6%.

Lowry was a solid target even before the Leonard news broke, scoring 43.4 DK PPG in the five games with Leonard on the floor. The big bump in usage he should see tonight, puts him at must play status vs this Bucks’ defense that should also struggle without their best player.

PG: Jeff Teague: (5,300)

Tonight, Teague is at his lowest price of the season and is in arguably the best matchup he could ask for vs The Lakers. They are the second fastest team in The NBA and have been putrid at defending PGs. (4.61 opponent +/-) Similar to Butler, Teague struggled Saturday vs The Bucks (11.5 DK points in 21.4 minutes), but was playing very well before this embarrassing loss. (31.7 DK PPG in 31.4 MPG)

This is a 4.3 possession increase for The Wolves and in the 14 career games Teague has seen a possession bump of 4.0 or more, he is averaging 35.4 DK PPG. He should easily outproduce this current price tag and is an excellent value that gives you another share of this potentially huge offensive game.

Also Consider:

C: Joel Embiid: (10,000) 

Embiid is at home and taking on The Hawks. They have no one that can match up with him and the last time he faced them, he scored 58 DK points. Embiid is averaging 57.1 DK PPG this season and is clearly too cheap right now.

PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (6,700)

Both Anthony Davis (elbow) and Elfird Payton (ankle) are out for tonight’s matchup vs The Nuggets. Holiday is going to have do as much as possible if The Pelicans want any chance of winning this game. If we go back to last year and look at all the minutes Holiday logged sans Davis, Demarcus Cousins, and Rajon Rondo, who was basically playing the same role as Payton, Holiday was scoring 40.9 DK points per 36 minutes. He is one of the better values of the night, but this matchup vs a full strength Nuggets’ team is somewhat concerning. (3rd in defensive efficiency and DEN is -9)

PF/C: Julius Randle: (6,200) 

Flopped in his first start for Davis (18.25 DK points), but he was facing The Jazz and dealing with foul trouble in this blowout. He did see a 31.1% usage rate as a starter and is averaging 1.4 DK PPM this season, so there is obviously room for improvement. As I just said above, this spot vs The Nuggets is a little scary, but at this price, I think you have to embrace the risk with Randle.

PG/SG: Eric Bledsoe: (6,100)

After Middleton, Bledsoe is the next best Bucks’ value. In those four games with Giannis and Parker out last season, Bledsoe scored 36.8 DK PPG in 36.9 MPG. He is simply mis priced for his role this evening.

SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5:800)

Blowout risk vs The Warriors (-11), but last game, without Bobby Portis, Parker scored 38.5 DK points in 34.1 minutes off the bench vs The Hawks. Portis will remain out and if this game can stay close in anyway, Parker has another chance to get over five times value.

PF/C: Ersan Ilyasova: (4,100) 

Sova will get the starting nod tonight. He is scoring an effective 0.92 DK PPM this year and as a starter, he should play roughly 30 minutes. He is always worth considering when his minutes are up. In his last ten games has logged 25+, Ilyasova is averaging 33.2 DK PPG. There is a plethora of value out there tonight, but at only $4,100, Ilyasova is by far one of the best point per dollar plays.

SG/SF: E’Twaun Moore: (4,000)

In the seven games AD was out last year, Moore averaged 26.9 DK points in a high 35.7 MPG. He has played over 30 minutes in 3/5 games this season and he should have to tonight vs The Nuggets. At 0.75 DK PPM with Davis off the court, Moore is a decent punt.

PF: Pascal Siakam: (3,900)

In the last two games, Siakam has scored 24.4 DK PPG and tonight, he should have to play 30-35 minutes with Leonard resting and OG Anunoby away for personal reasons. In that one other game Leonard was rested, Siakam produced 30.5 DK points across 26 minutes.

SF: Norman Powell: (3,200)

Powell is the projected starter for Leonard. In that one game Leonard sat, Powell saw a season high 23.3 minutes. He only scored 14.25 DK points, but at a 0.7 DK PPM average and a higher minutes projection with Anunoby also absent, it’s safe to expect a better score tonight.

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