What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for October 30th. Tonight, we get a nice sized slate for a Tuesday, with seven games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
PG: Chris Paul: (9,300)
The lone concern for Paul in his first game without James Harden (hamstring) was The Clippers’ tough defensive back court and they did their job, holding him to 33 DK points in 34 minutes on Friday night. Tonight, with Harden still sidelined, Paul is in a much more appealing matchup, facing Damian Lillard and The Blazers. Lillard has always struggled as an individual defender and this team as a whole has slipped, ranking 16th in efficiency, compared to their #6 ranking from a year ago.
This matchup is currently an opponent +/- of 1.89 points starting PGs and in the last seven times Paul has faced The Blazers, he is averaging 47.5 DK PPG, which isn’t an average that is incorporating the usage increases he will see sans Harden. In all the time Paul saw without Harden on the floor last season, he received a team high 5.4% usage increase and scored 1.53 DK PPM. This game has a small spread (HOU -3.5) and in 35-40 minutes of work, CP3 should top 50 DK points.
PF: Jaren Jackson: (5,500)
Jackson struggled with foul trouble vs Denadre Ayton and The Suns on Saturday, limiting him to only 13.5 DK points in 14.6 minutes. His price has now been cut $500 to a very affordable $5,500 and he is in a prime rebound spot tonight vs The Wizards. Thus far, they have been the 25th ranked defense and have allowed the most total rebounds per game, by a wide margin of 4.9 rebounds. (5.91 opponent +/-) They should be even worse now, with starting PF Markieff Morris out with a concussion.
Jackson is scoring 1.1 DK PPM this season and if he can stay out of foul trouble, which is likely vs this low usage Washington front court, we should see right around 30 DK points in close to 30 minutes from the rookie.
SG/SF: Evan Turner: (3,900)
Quietly, Turner has been a very steady option off the bench for The Blazers this season. He is averaging 24.6 DK PPG in 24.1 MPG, putting him right over one DK PPM. The move of using him as the six man this season has been great for his usage. Through the first six games, he has seen a 19.3% usage rate, which is a 3.5% increase from 2017.
It makes complete sense, as he is a player that needs the ball in his hands to produce, which is something that won’t happen often when playing with scorers like Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum in the starting five. His matchup vs The Rockets doesn’t rate well from an individual stand point (-3.54 opponent +/-), but this team as an unit has been poor. (27th in efficiency) Turner has topped 20 DK points in every game this season and he should keep this trend going on Tuesday night.
PG: Kemba Walker: (8,300)
Walker only trails Giannis Antetokounmpo in usage this season (33.5%) and it has turned him into a bonified fantasy stud. He is coming off a 60 DK point road showing vs The Sixers and through seven games, he is averaging 49.3 DK PPG.
Tonight, he is back at home (+1.54 DK PPG) in a gorgeous matchup vs The Heat. (5.29 opponent +/-) Walker should pop off for another 50+ DK point showing and this may be one of the last times we see him priced under $9,000.
PG/SF: Ben Simmons: (9,100)
If we don’t include his 7.4 minute night vs The Magic last week, Simmons is scoring 51.1 DK PPG. Tuesday’s Eastern Conference showdown vs The Raptors has the highest O/U game total of the night (227.5 points) and a tight spread. (TOR -6) Also, this is a 2.8 point opponent +/- for Simmons. He should log 35+ and produce 50+ DK points in this game setting. He is my favorite high end value to attack in this slate high total.
SF/PF: Tobias Harris: (7,800)
OKC is 8th in pace and is a current opponent +/- of 6.03 points for Harris. He is scoring 38.7 DK PPG and should approach the 40 mark in this spot.
PG: Trae Young: (7,200)
Young has become more of a GPP play only (under 30 DK points in three straight), but tonight, he gets a dream matchup vs The Cavs, who are dead last in defensive efficiency this season. (8.19 opponent +/-) With a 60.5 DK point game under his belt in only six games, Young clearly possesses upside vs this horrible defense.
SG: Bradley Beal: (6,800)
This is a far from ideal matchup vs The Grizzlies (-3.86 opponent +/- and 3rd in efficiency), but with Morris being ruled out, Beal’s already high usage should get a slight boost. In all the time he played without Morris last season, Beal saw a 3.5% usage bump, which was the biggest increase for any Wizard in this situation. Kelly Oubre Jr. is also a GTD with an illness and if he also sat, Beal’s rates would grow even further. In the minutes he played with these two off the court a year ago, Beal posted a 32.6% usage rate and scored 45.9 DK points per 36 minutes.
C: Jusuf Nurkic: (6,000)
Nurkic has the best possible matchup for a starting player tonight vs The Rockets. (10.8 opponent +/-) He has always been tough to predict, with scores ranging from 13.75 DK points to 52 this season, but in the 13 contests he took on an opponent +/- over 5.0 points, Nurkic averaged 32.4 DK PPG. This is the cheapest he has been all season and this is one of the best matchups he could ask for.
SF/PF: Carmelo Anthony: (5,300)
Anthony has turned the clocks back in his last two games, averaging 37.5 DK PPG in 36.34 MPG. (21.5% usage rate) He will start again with Harden out and should play 35-40 minutes in this strong individual matchup vs The Blazers. (4.19 opponent +/-) I never thought I would be saying this again, but Anthony is a tough player to fade tonight.
SF/PF: P.J. Tucker: (4,700)
Tucker’s price tag is fair, but he has been exceptional, averaging 29.4 DK PPG in these past two. He is playing a much higher 36 MPG this season and should continue to do so with Harden and Ennis out of this rotation.
SF/PF: Jerami Grant: (4,200)
As expected, Grant has been much better as a starter these last two games, scoring over 20 DK points in each contest, which is something he didn’t accomplish in the first three games of the season. (23.5 DK PPG) Nothing has changed with his rates, this is simply due to the bump in minutes. He has played 33.7 MPG with the starting five vs the 28 MPG he was logging in the first three. Tonight, in a decent matchup vs The Clippers (1.65 opponent +/-), Grant should produce 20+ DK points for the third game in a row.
PF: Pascal Siakam: (3,900)
Siakam went off for 44 DK points in 33.2 minutes last night vs The Bucks. He has started the last two games with OG Anunoby (personal) out and is now averaging 33.9 DK PPG across those two. Kawhi Leonard will be back with the team after being rested last night, but Anunoby will still be away due to his personal matter. Siakam is scoring 0.98 DK PPM this season and this matchup vs The Sixers rates as a gorgeous one for him. (8.83 opponent +/-) With no price increase from last night, Siakam remains a plug and play value.
SG/SF: Gerald Green: (3.900)
With Harden and James Ennis (hamstring) out last game, Green provided the spark off the bench we expected, scoring 27.75 DK points in 23 minutes vs The Clippers. His usage hit a season high in the game (28.3%) and he averaged 24.5 DK PPG in the ten Harden sat last season. The Blazers are currently sitting at a higher opponent +/- of 3.22 points for Green.