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DraftKings NBA Picks – October 31st

Happy Halloween everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for October 31st. Tonight, we get a nice sized slate, with seven games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Karl Anthony-Towns: (8,400)

KAT finally had a big night on Monday, scoring 25 points, 16 rebounds, six assists, four blocks, and a steal across 32 minutes in the win over The Lakers. (64.5 DK points) Andrew Wiggins (quad) was out in this game and he is a GTD again tonight vs The Jazz, but both Jeff Teague (knee) and Jimmy Butler (rest) have already been confirmed out, opening the door for Towns to garner most of this offense’s usage. He saw a 31.8% usage rate on Monday and in all the minutes he logged without Butler and Teague last season, he saw a 4.5% usage jump.

I think Wiggins ends up playing, but if he was also forced to sit, everything would run through Towns. This matchup vs Rudy Gobert and The Jazz was always one to avoid last season, but through six games this year, they have rated as a very strong matchup for starting centers. (7.91 opponent +/-) Just this past Sunday, Deandre Jordan scored a season high 51.75 DK points in this same exact matchup vs The Jazz. Last, but certainly not least, this game will be at home in Minnesota, where Towns has scored 2.4 more DK PPG over his career. Hopefully most people get scared off by seeing he is playing The Jazz, because this a perfect time to attack Towns at a reasonable salary.

Value Picks:

PG/SG: Derick Rose: (4,900)

Rose should start tonight for Teague vs The Jazz. They have been much better at defending guards than bigs this season (-1.82 opponent +/-), but no matter the matchup, you are playing Rose at this cheap of price, with Teague, Butler, and possibly Wiggins out. In the 54 minutes Rose has been on the court with Teague and Butler off this season, he has led the team with a massive 10.9% usage increase and is scoring 1.39 DK PPM. To put this into perspective, this is a huge + 0.5 DK PPM differential from his season average.

In the one other game Butler was rested, Rose went off for 47.25 DK points in 32 minutes off the bench vs The Mavs and in these past three with Wiggins dealing with the quad, the former MVP is averaging 27.25 DK PPG and 32 MPG. In 30-35 minutes of work, with much higher rates, Rose should smash value at this price, despite the tough matchup vs this Jazz backcourt.

C: Deandre Ayton: (7,100)

There isn’t much logic to it, but Ayton’s price has been cut $800 since his last game, for tonight’s great matchup vs The Spurs. With many parts, most notably Kawhi Leonard (traded) and Dejounte Murray (out, knee) out of the picture, this Spurs defense has fallen all the way to being the 4th worst defense this season, after being the 4th best a year ago. Centers have gotten everything they want vs this Spurs defense that has been starting LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a natural PF, at the five spot. (1.18 opponent +/-) Ayton has lived up to being the #1 overall pick in this past draft, putting up a double double in 4/6 games and averaging 39.3 DK PPG.

He is producing 1.3 DK PPM and he should have to play over 30, with this game expected to be decently tight throughout (SA -7.5), mostly due to The Suns being at home, which has been a huge factor so far for Ayton. (10.7 more DK PPG at home) Also, Devin Booker (hamstring) and Isiash Canaan (ankle) have been ruled out for The Suns. In the last game without Booker, Ayton scored 36.25 DK points vs The Thunder, behind a season high 24.7% usage rate. He should see a similar rate tonight and exceed five times vs this soft Spurs’ defense.

PG: Elie Okobo: (3,700)

After Canaan left last game and only played six minutes, Okobo was a spark off the bench, scoring a career high 34.75 DK points in 31 minutes vs The Thunder. The rookie is fine scorer, who is strong from outside (42% from three), that also can facilitate his team. (seven assists last game)

He is scoring 0.91 DK PPM this season and he should have to log a minimum of 30 minutes with this back court so beat up. As I touched on above, this is a completely different Spurs’ defense this season (0.7 opponent +/-), and in a starters role, Okobo is an awesome punt play, that needs to be taken advantage of on Halloween night.

Also Consider:

SF/PF: LeBron James: (11,300) 

It isn’t a must, but there is enough viable punts plays out there tonight to squeeze in The King in this excellent spot vs The Mavs. (4,63 opponent +/-) He is averaging 60.6 DK PPG in his last two and The Lakers have the second highest implied team total of the night. (120.75 points) The last time LeBron’s team was projected for more than 120 points, which was on Monday, he nearly tallied a triple double, and scored 62 DK points.

C: Deandre Jordan: (7,600)

Jordan has fit in very nicely with The Mavs (42.7 DK PPG) and tonight he faces The Lakers, who 1st in pace, 24th in defensive efficiency, and 10th most rebound allowed. (2.23 opponent +/-)

SF/PF: Nikola Mirotic: (7,500) 

Mirotic was exceptional in the first game without AD, putting up 42.5 DK points in 37.3 vs a tough Nuggets’ defense on Monday night. If Davis can’t give it a go again this evening, Mirotic is a nice high end target that has safety in upside vs a high scoring Warriors’ team.

PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (7,400)

I do worry about this matchup for LaVine (DEN is 4th in efficiency), but this a great price for a player with his type of usage, especially on his home floor. He is averaging a high 33% usage this year, helping him to a career best 41 DK PPG. If The Bulls can avoid getting embarrassed at home (DEN -8.5), LaVine has a pretty good chance of cracking 40 DK points for the sixth time this season.

PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (7,200)

Elfird Payton (ankle) has already been ruled out, which puts Holiday at point for The Pelicans, but he is a better overall play if Anthony Davis (GTD, elbow) also misses another game. In 34.2 minutes vs The Nuggets last game with AD and Payton sitting, Holiday scored 42 DK points and this matchup vs The Warriors has blowout concerns (GSW -11/5), but is positive from an individual matchup perspective. (1.69 opponent +/-)

SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (6,000)

With Bobby Portis (mcl) out, Parker has flourished off the bench, scoring 37.6 DK PPG, with a 26.7% usage rate. The Nuggets are a tough matchup (4th in efficiency), but we just saw him tackle a tough matchup on Monday vs The Warriors (36.75 DK points in 26.2 minutes) and this game is at home in Chicago.

PG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (5,900)

DSJ has scored over 30 DK points in three straight games and tonight, he should keep this streak going in a dream spot vs The Lakers. No matter if it’s Rajon Rondo or Lonzo Ball starting, opposing PGs have been shredding this defense. (4.59 opponent +/-) The Mavs haven’t been anything special themselves on defense (9th worst in efficiency) and this game should be a shootout, that also stays competitive. (234 O/U game total, LA -7.5) This is a 5.1 possession increase for Smith and in the 24 games he has seen a pace difference of 5.0 possessions or more, he is generating 30.7 DK PPG. He should get us five to six times value and is a very strong target for both cash games and GPPs.

SG: Josh Okogie: (4,400)

Will remain a starter and should play 30+ minutes vs The Jazz. He scored 35 DK points in 30.1 minutes vs The Lakers last game and while I am not expecting a showing like this, Okogie should flirt with five times value, with a chance for more, if Wiggins is also out.

PG: Tyus Jones: (3,400)

With Teague out, Jones and Rose will do most of the ball handling for The Wolves. I expect Rose to start and he has the better upside, but Jones is a similar point per dollar value at a cheaper price point. This season, he is at 0.8 DK PPM and I am projecting him for 25-30 minutes off the bench. In the last five contests he has seen 25 minutes or more, Jones is averaging 20.8 DK PPG.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

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