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DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks – April 15th


What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA Playoff picks for April 15th, 2018. Today we get four playoff games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 1:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG: Chris Paul: (8,100)

The Rockets haven’t had anything to play for in a few weeks and Paul was rested for the regular season finale. He should be fresh and ready to help this Rockets team pick a win in game one vs The Wolves. He may not have the highest amount of playoff series wins over his career, but Paul is still an elite player, who takes his game up a notch in The Playoffs. Just last season with The Clippers, Paul averaged 47.4 DK PPG in The Playoffs, in a sample size of seven games. Also, he has one of the better matchups available for a PG on Sunday, with The Wolves allowing the 8th most DK points to the position this season. (2.4 opponent +/-)

They were the 6th worst rated defense for the year and Paul averaged 41.8 DK PPG vs them, in four games. There is some blowout concerns, with The Rockets such a dominant home team (-11.5 HOU), but this is The Playoffs and the game would have to get really out of reach for Paul’s’ minutes to be significantly limited tonight. He should log 35-40 minutes and score 40+ DK points in this spot, with a ceiling around 50-55 DK points. Paul is a smart player and he knows this is the best and could be one of the last shots he has at winning a title. I am expecting a big postseason from CP3 and I will be deploying at this reasonable price in all formats on Sunday.

Value Picks:

PG: Ricky Rubio: (5,900)

Rubio is a value play that needs to be utilized on Sunday. Who knows why, but his price has dropped $900 since his last start and this is the cheapest he has been in over two months. His minutes were limited in the last two games of the season, at 22 MPG, but this was mostly due to one blowout win and with them letting him rest and heal a hamstring injury, so he will be healthy for the postseason. Even with only 22 MPG, Rubio still scored over 30 DK points in each of the last two games of the regular season.

With him not playing since Wednesday and no back to backs in The Playoffs, I expect him to get back to playing closing to 30 minutes a game. He averaged 1.01 DK PPM this season with this type of playing time, in a very competitive game setting (-3.5 OKC), Rubio should top 30 DK points in this slightly positive matchup vs The Thunder. (2.37 opponent +/-)

PF/C: Al Horford: (6,000)

Just like with Rubio, DraftKings has dramatically cut Horford’s price heading into The Playoffs. He was priced at $6,600 for the last game of the year and $6,000 is the cheapest Horford has been since the first game of the regular season. At this salary, he needs to score 30 DK points to reach value, which is obviously obtainable, with him averaging 32.6 DK PPG this season. Plus, he will be taking on a Bucks’ defense that has given up the second most DK points to PFs this season (3.83 opponent +/-), which is also a defense he has played very well against this year, averaging 40.3 DK PPG in four meetings.

Lastly, with PG Kyrie Irving (knee) out, Horford is the main leader on this Celtics team. He has the most playoff experience by a long shot and he is a veteran who tends to play well in the postseason. Just last year, he averaged 33.1 DK PPG in the 18 playoff games he played in. There is no chance he will be this cheap for game two and Horford is a must have value play in my opinion.

C: Clint Capela: (6,400)

I won’t lie, predicting Capela can be a tough task, but his price tag is just too friendly for game one. As they did with Paul, Capela was rested for the final game of the year and he should play roughly 30 minutes, assuming this game isn’t a massive blowout this evening. He averaged 34.2 DK PPG this season, which would put him at 5.3 times value at his current salary. Furthermore, he played well vs Karl-Anthony Towns and this Wolves’ defense that struggled vs centers all year (4.46 opponent +/-), scoring 38.1 DK PPG across their four regular season tilts.

He also has been a better player at home, averaging 3.3 more DK PPG this season. As a noted above, this Wolves’ defense presents a current opponent +/- of 4.46 points and in the 13 home games he has seen an opponent +/- of at least 4.0 points, he is averaging 38.12 DK PPG. He should score 35-40 DK points in this spot and I think we should take advantage of Capela right now, before his price gets back over $7,000.

Also Consider:

Russell Westbrook: $700 price decrease from his last game. He scored over 60 DK points in his last two starts and averaged 57.9 DK PPG vs The Jazz this season. Obviously this matchup is far from ideal, but it’s Russell Westbrook at home in The Playoffs.

LeBron James: 58 DK PPG at home this year and 61.6 DK PPG vs The Pacers. He should score over 60 DK points if they don’t blow The Pacers out.

Derrick Favors: He struggled vs The Thunder this season, but he has been great recently, averaging 29 DK PPG in his last three.

Paul George: His role was different, but he scored 52.6 DK PPG last season in The Playoffs. He also averaged 38.4 DK PPG vs The Jazz this year. He should play very high minutes and approach 40 DK points.

Marcus Morris: Huge $1,200 drop off from his last game. Not the best matchup vs The Bucks, but he should get 25-30 DK points.

Jerami Grant: Far from ideal spot vs The Jazz, but he played great to close the season, scoring 24.5 DK PPG in his last three. He should come close to scoring 20 DK points and is one of the better punts of this slate.

Tyler Zeller: Risky, but he should play close to 20 minutes off the bench. There is no upside, but if you want to get in more than on stud, Zeller is a decent full punt, that could get you double digit DK points.

Trevor Booker: Won’t play much, but in 15-20 minutes, he has a solid chance of returning value at only $2,900.

Jae Crowder: Over 20 DK points in the last three games of the season. They will need his defense vs George.

Kevin Love: 38.3 DK PPG vs The Pacers this season and this matchup is awesome, with them sitting at a 4.69 opponent +/-.
PLAY THIS LINEUP

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