What’s going on everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks for April 25th, 2017. Tonight’s slate is a small slate with only three games to target. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 8:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (14,200) Westbrook has been unstoppable since game one of this series, averaging an absurd 84.3 DK points over his last three games. Even though he has been remarkable, his team is on the brink of elimination down 1-3 heading into tonight’s game five in Houston. The whole season is on the line and there is no way Westbrook doesn’t come out and have another insane performance tonight. The Rockets are the favorites, but win or lose, I am expecting Westbrook to definitely record another triple double and out produce his high price tag in this do or die situation. In these past three games, Westbrook who is already a usage monster, has seen a 46.5% usage rate, which is a significant 5.2% increase from his regular season average.
With this jump in usage, he is now averaging an elite 1.95 DK points per minute compared to the 1.75 DK points per minute he was scoring during the season. With this being a win or go home situation, Westbrook should log close to 40 minutes, with the potential for even more depending on how Head Coach Billy Donovan wants to handle this elimination game. His price might be at an all time high, but Westbrook is still a very strong value, when factoring in the situation. He should score around 75 DK points with massive upside vs this Rockets defense that he has dominated all season. (5th most DK points to PGs) Don’t overthink this one, do everything possible to get Westbrook in your lineups tonight.
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (5,200) Williams has seen his role grow over these last two playoff games, logging 30+ minutes off the bench in games three and four. As expected, he has taken full advantage of the boost in playing time, with 30 DK points on Friday night and 33.75 DK points on Sunday. For the playoffs, Williams is now averaging a 25% usage rate, which is the second highest usage rate on this team in the postseason, only trailing James Harden.
Tonight is a potential close out game for The Rockets, Williams will hopefully play 30+ minutes again, vs this Thunder defense that has allowed the 7th most DK points to opposing SGs this year. If the higher minutes continue, he should have no problem returning value, with him averaging 1.13 DK points per minute. Right now his price doesn’t reflect the type of minutes he has been playing and he is very nice value that should be considered in all formats.
SF: Doug McDermott: (2,400) His production has not been high, but McDermott has been okay when considering his price in these last three games, averaging 11.4 DK points off the bench. SF Jerami Grant played a good amount in the first two contests of this series, but his minutes have been cut back in, so shooters like McDermoot and Alex Abrines can see more time on the court. It’s difficult to say if this has been a smart move by Coach Donvoan, but either way, McDermott is now averaging 16.3 minutes over the past three games.
This is a very small role, but he has been solid in these minutes, scoring 0.69 DK points per minute, and with roughly 15-20 minutes, he has a pretty decent shot of meeting five times value, in this positive matchup vs The Rockets. (1.69 current opponent +/-) Obviously he has a very low floor and ceiling, but if you need the salary cap relief, I think McDermott is viable play on Tuesday night.
SF: Andre Roberson: (5,700) The Thunder are trailing in this series (1-3), but Roberson has been a huge bright spot no matter the outcome of tonight’s game. For this series, he is averaging 34.6 DK points a game, which is a huge difference from the 18.4 DK points a night he was scoring all season. Westbrook is going to command most of the usage, but Roberson has actually seen a 5.2% usage increase, posting a 15.2% usage for this first round. The higher usage is clearly a boost for him, but the main difference has been his work on defense, with him averaging 3.25 blocks and 2.0 steals a game, which is a tremendous 10.5 DK points added to his fantasy score each night.
Now these numbers are very high and seem hard to maintain, but he has now done it for four straight games, and with everything to play for tonight, I think there is a pretty good chance we see him produce again. They have tried to keep him on the floor whenever Harden has been in the game and in this very meaningful matchup, I think we see Roberson play close to 40 minutes tonight to defend the all-star PG. Playing against Harden and this Rockets team, Roberson’s defense is a key to winning, and I think it is a smart to idea to keep riding him tonight.
Also Consider: Victor Oladipo, Joe Ingles, Patrick Beverly, Eric Gordon, Tony Parker, Clint Capela (5.2 more DK points at home this year), Nene, Steven Adams, Luc Mbah a Moute, Jamal Crawford, Vince Carter, Marresse Speights, JaMychal Green, Andrew Harrison, and Alex Abrines.