Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks for April 28th, 2017. Tonight’s slate is a small slate with only three games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:30 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
PG: Chris Paul: (10,300) After dropping game five at home, The Clippers now face elimination in Utah on Friday night. It is do or die time for Paul and The Clippers and no matter if they win or lose, I believe Paul will step up to the occasion and play great in game six. His price has skyrocketed all the way up to $10,300 since the being priced at $8,100 in game one, but his salary in my opinion, is still a little too cheap with the huge workload he has seen with PF Blake Griffin out. (toe)
Over these last three games with Griffin off the court, Paul has posted a high 35.8% usage rate, which is a massive 11.2% increase from his normal rate during the regular season. (1.46 DK points per minute) His minutes also have been higher, with him now playing 38 minutes in back to back games, which is great, but with everything on line tonight, Paul should log 40+ minutes in this intense game. We all know the matchup is difficult vs this Jazz defense (-1.39 opponent +/-), but realistically there is no matchup right now that would stop me from playing Paul in this situation. I am projecting 55-60 DK points from him and CP3 is my favorite player to pay up for on Friday night.
SG/SF: Bojan Bogdanovic: (3,800) Bogdanoivc disappointed in the first two games of this series, but he has looked much better over the last three, averaging 21.6 DK points a game. He is coming off by far his best game of these playoffs, with a line of 14 points, seven rebounds, and a steal across 24 minutes in the game five win. (24.5 DK points) His usage is down from the regular season, but he has still posted a 20.6% usage rate and is averaging 8.3 shots in these past three contests.
He should continue with his 20-25 minutes role of the bench in game six, with the possibility for a little more, if PF Jason Smith is out (GTD, calf), which would force The Wizards into a tighter rotation and smaller lineups. Either way, Bogdanovic has a good chance of returning value vs this Hawks team, that has given up the 7th most DK points to SFs this season. DraftKings has increased his price $600 since his game five performance, but he is still a solid value at only $3,8000, that can be used in both cash games and tournaments.
PG/SG: Marcus Smart: (5,300) Smart has been very consistent so far this post season, averaging 27.7 DK points a game as the Celtics’ sixth man. He is never going to score much, but he can really fill up a stat sheet on both ends of the floor, especially during this first round, with him averaging 5.4 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and one block so far in this series. His defense has been crucial in The Celtics success vs this Bulls squad and it has kept his minutes very stable at 30.8 minutes a game.
When factoring in his averages, he has been averaging 0.85 DK points per minute in the playoffs, and in this pivotal game six, Smart should play right around 30 minutes again and produce 25-30 DK points with upside, depending on how many steals or blocks he can record. In this difficult slate where there aren’t that many clear cut value plays and I think Smart is nice mid-tier option that has safety and upside.
SF: Luc Mbah a Moute: (4,200) He is a poor fantasy player, averaging 0.54 DK points per minute, but Mbah a Moute is someone Clippers Head Coach Doc Rivers has relied on heavily in this series, with him averaging 36.4 minutes a night. He is no threat on offense, only averaging 7.6 points against The Jazz, but Rivers has needed him on the floor this much for his defense.
He is by far their best wing defender, and if The Clippers have any hopes of forcing another game, Mbah a Moute should be on the floor every minute Jazz SF Gordon Hayward is, and I am expecting 35-40 minutes in game six. His upside is obviously limited, but with this kind of playing time, Mbah a Moute certainly has a chance of scoring 20+ DK points, even in this very tough matchup vs The Jazz.
Also Consider: Avery Bradley, Marcin Gortat (bump up if Smith is out), Brandon Jennings, Jae Crowder, Gerald Green (risky but will be low owned), Otto Porter Jr., Terry Rozier, Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson, Cristiano Felicio, Jonas Jerebko (has played 10 minutes in three straight games since The Celtics started using their new starting five), Raymond Felton, Anthony Morrow (very risky but he played 17 minutes last game), and George Hill.