What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA Playoff Picks for May 2nd – 3rd, 2017. Please note these picks are for the two day four game slate DraftKings has posted for Tuesday and Wednesday night. Now you can obviously use this advice for either of Tuesday or Wednesday night’s individual slates, I just believe playing the slate with more games involved is much better for the DFS player, even if they contests are smaller, especially if you want to play cash games. So be sure to still follow all the injury news up until the 8:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (9,000) The Warriors haven’t played in played in eight days after sweeping The Blazers in the first round and Durant, who was dealing with a calf injury, should be well rested and ready to take on a full workload in this series vs The Jazz. We all know this is one of the most difficult matchups in the entire league vs this Jazz defense (-3.7 opponent +/-), but no matter the matchup, Durant is extremely underpriced for the caliber of player he is, assuming he is back to full strength. At his $9,000 salary, Durant needs to score 45 DK points to return value, which is something he should easily accomplish tonight at home in The Oracle, where he is averaging 50.1 DK points a game this season.
He didn’t have to play much in the series clinching blow-out win over The Blazers last Monday (20 mins), but with a full week of rest and this being a more serious opponent, Durant should be back to playing high minutes in game one. Barring a massive blow-out (Warriors -13), I think we see Durant log around 35 minutes, which is plenty of time for him to outperform his price tag, with him averaging 1.45 DK points per minute. There is no chance we see him this cheap for the rest of these playoffs and we need to take full advantage of Durant at this discounted price tag for this four game slate.
PF: Patrick Patterson: (2,700) Patterson was solid off the bench in game one vs The Cavs, chipping in with five points, four assists, two rebounds, and a block in 22 minutes. (15.5 DK points) This is the second playoff game in the row he has played 20+ minutes and I am expecting him to continue this role in the second round vs The Cavs. His minutes are usually hard to predict, but in the five games The Raptors have taken on The Cavs this year, Patterson is averaging 26.6 minutes a game.
He is no stud fantasy player, averaging 0.67 DK points per minute, but with 20-25 minutes, he has a chance of returning value at his very cheap price. He is not a player I am thrilled about rostering, but I think he is the most viable play under $3,000 in this slate, that will help you get in the high end players you want.
C: Marcin Gortat: (5,900) Gortat exposed this Celtics’ interior defense in game one, posting a double-double of 16 points and 13 rebounds, to go along with four assists, one block, and a steal in 39 minutes. (43.75 DK points) The Wizards got away with keeping him on the bench in some of the series vs The Hawks, mostly due to Dwight Howard playing less, but vs this Celtics team, The Wizards are going to need him to play heavy minutes to defend Al Horford, and he should see 35-40 minutes again in game two, with Wizards’ back up center Ian Mahinmi expected to remain out. (calf)
For the season he is averaging 0.91 DK points per minute and with this type of playing time, Gortat should produce 30+ DK points against this Celtics defense, that has a current opponent +/- of 1.38 points. He could also potentially see some extra usage if PF Markieff Morris out. (GTD, ankle) There has only been two games this season that both Morris and Mahinmi have missed, but in these two contests Gortat saw a decent 1.5% usage increase and averaged 31 DK points a game. Regardless of if Morris is in or out, they will need Gortat’s size again in game two, and he is a safe mid-tier play that can I am comfortable with in all formats.
PG: George Hill: (5,600) If The Jazz can keep tonight’s game decently close, Hill should exceed value, playing way up in pace vs this Warriors team. He was only active for one game this season against The Warriors, but he was great in this one meeting, somehow scoring 35.3 DK points in only 18.4 minutes of action. This is a dramatic performance for how little he played, but it is no surprise he excelled vs a faster paced team in The Warriors.
Right now this is a 8.4 possession increase for Hill and The Jazz, and in the 21 games this season he has seen a pace difference of at least 6.0 possessions, Hill is averaging a terrific 32.5 DK points a game. He has been relied on heavily so far this post season, averaging 36.2 minutes a game, and if he can see this high of playing time again tonight, he should return five times value vs this faster team in game one.
Also Consider: Terry Rozier (double digit DK points in three straight games, is only $2,800), Kelly Oubre Jr. (if Morris out), Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart (would become an excellent play if he starts instead of Green. He started the second half ahead of Green in Sunday’s game one win), Lou Williams, Andre Iguodala, Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, Danny Green, P.J. Tucker, Tony Parker, David West, and Boris Diaw/Jeff Withey (if Derrick Favors is out).