What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for February 10th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with nine games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:30 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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SF: Brandon Ingram: (4,400) Ingram has been great starting at SF over the veteran Luol Deng the last two games, scoring 28.25 DK points vs The Knicks, and 27.5 DK points vs The Pistons this past Wednesday. In the starting role, he has been a more aggressive player, seeing his usage rate increase 2.3%, to a decent 18.4%. He also has been much more of a playmaker on the court with the starters, posting a 16.3% assist percentage, which is a big 5.9% jump from his season average. I know it’s only been two games, but in this span, he is scoring 0.9 DK points per minute, compared to his usual 0.6 DK points per minute this season.
Tonight, he is in a perfect spot to produce again vs The Bucks, who rank dead last defending SFs this year, with a high opponent +/- of 4.45 points. This has been one of the best matchups to pick on all year, and with his 30-35 minute role, he should score 25-30 DK points vs this defense that may be even weaker with starting PF Jabari Parker (knee) out. Even though he has produced over six times value in back to back games, Fantasy Labs is still only projecting him with an ownership of 2-4% tonight. At a reasonable $4,400 and a low expected ownership, he is one of my favorite ways to get exposure to this Bucks Lakers game in GPPs. (O/U 218 points)
SF/PF: Michael Beasley: (3,700) Bucks PF Jabari Parker has been diagnosed with a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. This is a massive loss for The Bucks and, with him out, there is a huge void to fill in this bucks offense. With Khris Middleton just returning last game (hamstring) and expected to remain limited for the next couple games, I think Beasley the player who steps up the most with Parker gone. Before going down last game, Parker had yet to miss a full game this season. But in the 378 minutes Beasley has been on the court with Parker off, he is posting a nice 25% usage rate, and is scoring 32.5 DK points per 36 minutes.
There is no word of what Head Coach Jason Kidd will do with his starting five, but even if Beasley doesn’t start, he should still play around 25 minutes in Parker’s absence. This year he is scoring just under 1.0 DK point a minute and with more playing time, he should score 20+ DK points in this dream matchup vs The Lakers who allow the most DK points to PFs this season. If he starts he is one of the best values of the slate, and is still very much in play in GPPs if he comes off the bench. If SF Mirza Teletovic draws the start he would become a very viable punt in all formats at his minimum $3,000 salary. His fantasy production relies more on his shooting (0.7 DK points per minute), and he has less upside than Beasley, but is the safer play if he starts.
PG/SG: Darren Collison: (5,400) PG Ty Lawson ruined a bunch of my lineups Wednesday night, missing the whole second half vs The Celtics with a strained left hamstring. The hamstring injury is expected to keep him out tonight with The Kings listing him as doubtful for Friday night’s tilt vs The Hawks. After Lawson exited in Wednesday’s win, Collison took over, scoring 42.75 DK points in 38 minutes with a 28.6% usage rate. This usage rate is obviously dramatic with center Demarcus Cousins missing this game due to a suspension, but even with Cousins returning and his usage coming back to reality, he should still log very heavy minutes as the only healthy PG left on this roster.
With SG Garrett Temple (hamstring) also still out, Collison should play 35+ minutes tonight vs The Hawks. This is a nice matchup for him going against The Hawks and PG Dennis Schroder, who currently have an opponent +/- of 2.85 points. With the high minutes I am expecting, Collison should be able to hit five times value in this matchup. At $5,400 he is a solid value play and is especially valuable tonight with his SG eligibility on DraftKings.
Also Consider: James Johnson (25.2% usage rate last game without Waiters, obviously a gorgeous matchup vs The Nets, who give up the 2nd most DK points to PFs), Buddy Hield (E’Twaun Moore is doubtful), Wayne Ellington/Rodney McGruder, Jamal Murray, Greg Monroe, Lance Stephenson (played 20 minutes last game and is going against his former team The Pelicans, who just waived him in November after he got hurt. Take it as a grain of salt, but Stephenson is an emotional player who would love to play well vs this Pelicans team), Khris Middleton, C.J. Miles, Rajon Rondo (better if either Wade or Butler are out), and Guillermo Hernangomez (if Noah remains out).