What’s going on everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for February 11th, 2017. Saturday night’s slate is a great slate with seven games to attack. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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SF: Andre Roberson: (3,900) Roberson has been playing ridiculous minutes as of late, averaging 37.5 minutes over his last three games. In this span, he is averaging 31.7 DK points per game, which is a huge difference from his normal 18.9 DK points a night. His usage hasn’t changed, but he has been more active on the glass with the extra playing time, averaging 9.6 rebounds, with a 13.1% rebound percentage, which is a 4.2% increase from his season average. He is The Thunder’s best wing defender and they will need him on the court as much as possible tonight to guard Kevin Durant.
He will likely play 35+ minutes again vs this Warriors defense that allows the 5th most DK points to SFs this year. Roberson isn’t much of an offensive threat, but with this much playing time, he should be able to score 20+ DK points in this western conference showdown. His price has only increased $100 since his last game and at only $3,900, he is a viable punt in all formats that gives you a share of this Warriors Thunder game that has a high O/U of 227.5 points.
C: Alex Len: (3,000) Len is returning from his one game suspension at the perfect time with starting center Tyson Chandler unlikely to play. Backup center Alan Williams went off last night after Chandler exited early, scoring 37.25 DK points in only 23.8 minutes, but Len is the big man who should start in his place tonight vs The Rockets. Len is always a great fantasy player when he is on the floor, averaging 0.9 DK points per minute this season. Over the last two seasons, Len has been the player who starts when Chandler is out, averaging 26.2 DK points in the 25 games the veteran has missed. With a starting role tonight, he should log 25-30 minutes barring foul trouble in a nice matchup vs The Rockets who allow the 11th most DK points to opposing centers with a current opponent +/- of 2.54 points.
This Rockets Suns game should be a very fun high scoring game with both teams ranking in the top five in pace and Vegas pegging this game with the highest O/U of the night at 235 points. Len should score at least 20 DK points with 40 point upside, if his minutes are high. Regardless, if he is highly owned or not, at a bare minimum $3,000, Len is a core play for me on Saturday night. Williams right now is the better fantasy producer scoring 1.28 DK points per minute this season, but he should have a smaller role than Len off the bench. He is also a very viable play also at only $3,000, but is a riskier play, because earlier this year, in this same exact situation, Williams didn’t even see the court. I think Williams plays tonight it is just something to note when putting Williams in your lineups tonight. Both players should hit value at their cheap price tags and I don’t mind rostering both in the same lineup tonight to be contrarian in GPPs.
PF/C: Dirk Nowitzki: (5,300) Tonight Dirk gets an elite match-up going against a weak Magic defense that allows the 7th most DK points centers this season, with an opponent +/- of 1.89 points. He has been on fire in the past two games, scoring 41.75 DK points vs The Blazers, and 34.75 DK points against a very tough Jazz defense. He has been much more of a focal point in this offense seeing a 3.6% usage bump and posting a high 29.1% usage rate in these two games. His minutes have also been up averaging 33.5 minutes a night in this span.
Tonight, with no game last night or tomorrow his minutes shouldn’t be limited and he should play 30+ minutes again vs The Magic. With center Andrew Bogut out (hamstring), Nowitzki has been starting at center which has been a solid boost to his fantasy stock. This year when Bogut is off the floor, Nowitzki has a 1.2 DK points +/-, and is scoring 36.2 DK points per 36 minutes of action. In this match-up, he should return five times value with upside. At $5,300 he is underpriced if this usage continues and I am comfortable with him all formats tonight.
Also Consider: Brandon Knight (elite value with Bledsoe being rested), Marcus Smart (Jae Crowder is out again), Steven Adams, Sam Dekker (if Eric Gordon is out again), P.J. Tucker, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Michael Beasley (solid value, should see even more usage with Middleton out on a back to back), Rodney McGruder (if Waiters is out again, 31 DK points in 35 minutes last night), Darrell Arthur, C.J. Watson (if he starts again with Gordon out), and Jameer Nelson.