What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for February 15th, 2017. Tonight we get a huge slate with 14 games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PF/C: Kelly Olynyk: (4,200) With back-up center Tyler Zeller back to being out of this Celtics rotation, Olynyk has played 27 and 29 minutes in his last two games, which is a sizable increase from his usual 21 minutes a game this season. In these two contests, he has seen a 3.8% usage increase and is scoring a terrific 1.2 DK points per minute compared to his normal 0.9 DK point per minute this year. I don’t see any reason why his minutes would decrease tonight with The Celtics picking up two respectable road wins with him playing a bigger role.
This is an elite match-up for him going against The Sixers who are a helpless defense without center Joel Embiid, who allow the most DK points to centers this season and with a high opponent +/- of 4.59 points. If he plays over 25 minutes again tonight, he should have no issues hitting five times value with 30-35 point upside, especially if he gets hot from beyond the arc. Going all in on Olynyk in DFS is always a tough pill to swallow, but right now at this price and in this matchup, he is one of the better cheap targets of this 14 game slate.
SG: Monta Ellis: (3,700) Ellis has been solid off the bench for The Pacers in his last four games, averaging 23 DK points a night. His minutes have been higher with The Pacers playing smaller lineups and he has now played over 30 minutes in back to back games. His usage has seen a huge jump with the extra playing time, posting a 22.3% usage rate in these past two games, which is a 5.9% increase from his 16.4% season average. Tonight he will be looking to top 20 DK points for the fifth straight game vs The Cavs who allow the 7th most DK points to SGs this season, with an opponent +/- 2.49 points.
Ellis has already exposed this defense this season averaging 27.5 DK points in 29.2 minutes in their first two games vs The Cavs this year. His price has only increased $200 since his last game and he is still very affordable tonight at $3,700. If his increased role off the bench continues, he should score 20-25 DK points vs this Cavs defense. With James Harden not being an eligible SG anymore on DraftKings, the position is rather weak tonight with no clear cut value plays. Punting the position tonight seems like the best route for lineup construction, and I think Ellis is a strong value play that should return five times value at his very cheap price.
PG: T.J. McConnell: (5,100) McConnell has stepped up offensively with center Joel Embiid out (knee), averaging 32.9 DK points in his last three games. His usage hasn’t moved much, but he has been a much better passer, averaging 8.3 assists a game, with a team high 38.5% assist percentage. Center Jahill Okafor will return tonight, but I don’t see how this could hurt McConell’s assist rate. He also has been more active on the defensive end, averaging two steals a game during this stretch. The Sixers coaching staff has been experimenting with their PGs all season, but it is clear now that they believe McConnell is their best option, with him logging at least 30 minutes in four straight games.
Tonight, him and The Sixers head to Boston to take on The Celtics who have a current opponent +/- of 3.86 points vs starting PGs with Avery Bradley still out. (Achilles) Barring a blow out, McConnell should log 30+ minutes and score 25 DK points with decent upside in this matchup. He isn’t the most exciting play, but is a very solid mid tier target that should come with a low ownership in GPPs. (projected ownership of 5-8% via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Gerald Green/Marcus Smart (Jaylen Brown is out again),Greg Monroe, Michael Beasley, Frank Kaminsky, Steve Adams, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Clarkson, Channing Frye, Juan Hernangomez, Mason Plumlee (making his Nuggets debut tonight, should play close to 25 minutes with this team so shorthanded), Khris Middleton, Gary Harris, and Jahill Okafor (he is a huge risk, but he could potentially play a good amount with this team trying to trade him before the deadline).