DraftKings NBA Sleeper Picks – February 4th

Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for February 4th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with ten games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.

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C: John Henson: (3,000) Last night I wrote up Thon Maker thinking he would remain the starting center after the best game of his rookie career, but instead Head Coach Jason Kidd came out of nowhere and started John Henson vs The Nuggets. It was a tricky situation, with Henson not playing at all in the game before this, but he was great in the start, scoring 16 points, five rebounds, four blocks, and a steal in a season high 31 minutes. (32.25 DK points) With Miles Plumlee traded to The Hornets and both newly acquired Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes not expected to be available till Wednesday, Henson should remain in the starting center tonight vs The Suns. Coach Kidd could obviously do something random with his starting five again, but if Henson is confirmed the starter, he is an elite value at his bare minimum $3,000 price. I am not expecting him to play over 30 minutes again, but even if he just plays around 20, he should produce value, as he is averaging a solid 0.9 DK points per minute this season.

The matchup with Suns center Tyson Chandler isn’t the best (9th vs centers), but this defense currently presents a high opponent +/- of 2.88 points. Also this Bucks-Suns game is arguably the best game of the night to target with the two other games that have higher totals both having double digit spreads. Vegas is predicting this matchup to be a high scoring competitive game with an O/U game total of 220.5 points and a tight spread of just one point in favor of The Bucks. This is a situation to watch all the way up until roster lock to see if Henson is the confirmed starter. Even if we don’t get full confirmation, I think Henson is worth the risk, at only $3,000 on Saturday night.

SF/PF: Matt Barnes: (4,000) Barnes has stepped up with Garrett Temple out, averaging 25 DK points in his last three games. He has been starting at SF, averaging 30 minutes a game, which is a nice bump from his usual 24 minutes a night. Tonight, he should play 30+ minutes vs The Warriors, who give up the 6th most DK points to SFs this year. He should benefit playing up in pace with The Warriors ranking  2nd in pace, compared to The Kings who play at the 3rd slowest pace this season.

With the minutes I am expecting, he should score 20+ DK points vs this defense. This game does come with a blow out risk with The Warriors favored by 14.5 points, but I think The Kings can keep it fairly close at home, where they and star center Demarcus Cousins play much better than on the road. Barnes doesn’t have much upside but at $4,000, he is one of the strongest SF values of the night.

PF/C: Zach Randolph: (5,600) Randolph is way too cheap when considering the usage he should handle tonight, with center Marc Gasol, SG Tony Allen, and SF Chandler Parsons all being rested. It is not yet announced on who will start in place of Gasol, but Randolph would make the most sense. Even if he still comes off the bench, he will be the Grizzlies primary big man tonight with Gasol resting. This season when all three of these players are off the floor, Randolph sees a team high usage increase of 4.4%, posting a very high 33.2% usage rate.

There are no full games that all three of these players have missed this year, but per 36 minutes, with this usage, he is averaging a whopping 45.2 DK points when they are off the court. Tonight in a starting or reverse role, he should play 30 or more minutes vs The Wolves, who allow the 9th most DK points to centers. He should be able to return five times value with big upside if he logs very heavy minutes. At $5,600 he is one my favorite overall plays of this ten game slate.

Also Consider: Vince Carter/James Ennis, Troy Daniels, P.J. Tucker, Brandon Rush (nice punt if confirmed starting for LaVine), Guillermo Hernangomez, Jahill Okafor, Robert Covington (if active), Dario Saric (if Covington is out), Ty Lawson, Tyler Johnson, and Jon Leur (played a high 35 minutes last game, scored 32.5 DK points).