What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for February 6th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with 11 games to attack. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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C: Lavoy Allen: (3,700) Allen got the starting nod Saturday night with Thaddeus Young out (wrist) and recorded a double-double of 18 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block in 32 minutes vs The Pistons. (42.75 DK points) Allen isn’t a great offensive player by any means, but he was very involved in the offense, posting a high 25.9% usage rate, which is a massive jump for his 9.7% season average. It’s hard to expect to this kind of production again, but either way with Young already ruled out, Allen should start and play 25-30 minutes tonight vs The Thunder. Over the last three years he is averaging 0.7 DK points per minute and, with this kind of playing time and possibly high usage, he should have no issues returning at least five times value vs this Thunder defense that allows the 3rd most DK points to PFs this season.
This may seem like we are chasing points here, but the bottom line is Allen is a solid veteran who is just way too cheap with the minutes he should log tonight. At $3,700 he is one of the best values of this huge slate and I am comfortable with him in all formats on Monday night. Also one thing to watch is the status of Pacers center Myles Turner, who is now listed as questionable with an illness. If Turner is out, Allen would have to play all the minutes he can handle and would become a must play at this price.
PG/SG: E’Twaun Moore: (3,400) Moore has been playing high minutes as of late, averaging 27.6 minutes a game over his last three games. (18.9 DK points) The Pelicans rotation has become tighter over this stretch, with Moore and Tyreke Evans being the primary guards off the bench. His rates haven’t changed much, with him averaging a decent 0.7 DK points a minute in these three games. This is all about the heavier minutes he has seen, and, if the trend continues tonight, he should be able to produce in this high scoring matchup vs The Suns.
Both of these teams rank inside the top ten in pace this year and Vegas is giving this game a high O/U of 221 points, which is the second highest total of night. This is a very nice spot for him with this Suns defense giving up the 6th most DK points to opposing SGs, with a solid opponent +/- of 1.24 points. If he approaches 30 minutes again tonight, He has a great chance of scoring 20+ DK points vs this defense. There isn’t huge upside here, but, at $3,400, he is a punt play that makes sense with the lack of appealing options at SG tonight.
PG: Yogi Ferrell: (6,000) The undrafted rookie out of Indiana has been a huge surprise for The Mavs, averaging 33.8 DK points a game and leading them to four straight victories. His role has increased since his first career start with a nice 23.2% usage rate in the past three games. He especially wasn’t shy in his last game, gunning up 17 shots, knocking down 9/11 from behind the arc, with a 26.9% usage rate vs The Blazers. (45.5 DK points) With PG Deron Williams listed as doubtful for tonight (toe), Ferrell should start and play very high minutes again (37.7 minutes in the past four games) in a perfect matchup vs a dreadful Nuggets defense.
By the numbers, this is the best overall matchup for any player of any position in action tonight, with this Nuggets defense currently having a ridiculously high opponent +/- of 6.53 points vs starting PGs. He should be all over the place in this game, playing way up in pace, with The Nuggets ranking 4th in pace, compared to this Dallas team that is used to playing at the second slowest pace in the league. He should score around 30 DK points with nice upside in this gorgeous matchup. It is crazy to think we are paying $6,000 for a player who only has four NBA starts under his belt, but Ferrell clearly has talent, and the match-up is just too good to ignore, regardless of his increased salary.
Also Consider: Jamal Crawford, Jameer Nelson, Guillermo Hernangomez, Derick Rose, Wilson Chandler (boost if Faried is out), Darrell Arthur (if Faried is out), Tyler Johnson, Steven Adams, Ish Smith, Larry Nance Jr., Robert Covington, Jahill Okafor, and Jamal Murray.