What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for February 8th, 2017. Tonight we get a huge slate with 12 games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PG: Ty Lawson: (4,700) Kings center Demarcus Cousins has been suspended for picking up his 16th technical foul and will miss tonight’s game vs The Celtics. With the big man out of the picture there is a ton of usage and scoring that needs to be picked up by the rest of this Kings team. Centers Kousta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein will fill his minutes in the front court, but both players aren’t gifted enough offensively to pick his heavy usage (38%) and high scoring. With SF Rudy Gay also out, I think Lawson and PG Darren Collison are the teams next best options to lead this offense. This season when Gay and Cousins have been off the floor, Lawson sees a 7% usage increase, and is averaging a great 36.7 DK points per 36 minutes. He just had a great game this past Monday, scoring 39 DK points, in 35 minutes off the bench vs The Bulls. Lawson may not start but he should be relied on heavily tonight with this team shorthanded.
I am expecting The Kings to run out a lot of multiple PG sets with Lawson playing around 30 minutes vs The Celtics. This defense for the season ranks 16th vs PGs, but they are currently without their best perimeter defender Avery Bradley, who has missed the past few weeks with an Achilles injury. Their defense has been much weaker vs guards with the All NBA defensive guard out, currently having a high opponent +/- of 3.38 points. With the increased usage and minutes, Lawson should score 20-25 DK points in this matchup. Collison is also a very viable option, but presents a very similar ceiling at higher price. He is slightly safer with a starting role, but I think Lawson is the better value in this situation. I don’t mind making GPP lineups with both guards because, like I said above, they should be the main players who pick up the slack offensively with Cousins suspended.
PG: Dennis Schroder: (6,000) Schroder has a really ugly recent game log, but his minutes have been inconsistent because of double digit wins and losses in his last four games. Before this stretch in the past five games, when he has played 30 or more minutes, he is averaging a great 40.4 DK points a game. Tonight the game should stay close and he should log 30+ minutes vs The Nuggets, with Vegas giving this game a spread of only four points in favor of The Hawks. This is arguably the best game of the night to target with its slate high O/U game total of 225 points. The matchup couldn’t get much better for him with The Nuggets currently having an absurdly high opponent +/- of 6.27 points vs starting PGs.
The other day I recommended Mavs PG Yogi Ferrell vs this same defense and he had a great night putting up 31 DK points in 35 minutes. Schroder is a much better offensive player than the rookie Ferrell and in this elite matchup, he should produce 30+ DK points with 40 point upside. He has already tore this defense apart in their first meeting this season, scoring 43.5 DK points in 36 minutes back in December. At $6,000 he is a great value and is my favorite way to get exposure to this Hawks Nuggets game.
SF/PF: Larry Nance Jr.: (4,200) Even with starting PF Julius Randle back (illness), Nance has dominated the playing time at PF, logging 30+ minutes in his last two games. He has been excellent, averaging 14 points, 10.5 rebounds, three assists, and three steals in these games. (38.6 DK points per game) The second year man out of Wyoming looks to be fully healthy after missing 15 games with a knee injury. Randle is going to see his minutes increase, but I think it is clear after these past two games that The Lakers need Nance on the floor more. He is slightly undersized at 6’8’, but his speed and athleticism have helped this team play at a faster pace recently, with The Lakers playing at the sixth fastest pace in the league over their last three games.
Tonight he should log around 25-30 minutes in a tough matchup vs The Pistons, who rank 5th vs PFs this season. Even though this isn’t the best spot for him, if he sees high minutes again, he should produce close to five times value at his $4,200 salary. The best part about playing him tonight is that he is SF eligible on DraftKings. Unless you are willing to pay all the way up for a stud, SF is a position that lacks any clear cut value plays. I think Nance is worth a shot in GPPs at his cheap price, with the hope that his increased role off the bench continues tonight.
Also Consider: Willie Cauley-Stein/Kosta Koufos (both great values with Cousins out), Michael Carter Williams (if Butler is out again), Rajon Rondo (if Wade and Butler are both out), Anthony Tolliver, Darren Collison, Jamal Murray (Mudiay is out again), Lavoy Allen (Thad Young is out), Tim Hardaway Jr., Wayne Ellington (if Waiters is out), Tony Allen, Gueillrmo Hernangomez (Noah is doubtful), Brandon Ingram, Robert Covington, Richaun Holmes (if he plays), Trevor Booker (had a high 26.8% usage rate last night coming off the bench), and Tyler Johnson.