What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for January 16th, 2017. Monday night’s slate is a small slate of only four games. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:30 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter Hunta512.
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C: Cody Zeller: (4,700) Zeller returned to the court Friday night after missing four games with an illness, scoring 16 points with ten rebounds, two steals, one assist, and one block in 36 minutes vs The Sixers. (36 DK points) He wasn’t restricted at all and was actually utilized more in the offense, with a 21.8% usage rate which is a sizable jump from his 16% season average. With the increased usage, he scored 1.0 DK point per minute which is also a slight bump from his normal 0.9 per minute. I don’t know if him being more involved in the offense was part of the game plan and if it will continue tonight, but either way he is underpriced at $4,700 for the minutes he will play.
He will likely see 30-35 minutes tonight vs The Celtics, who rank 12th vs centers, but have allowed the most offensive rebounds to their opponents in The NBA over their last three games, with an opponent +/- of 2.04 points. Celtics starting center Al Horford is a good defender but overall The Celtics as a team can be very vulnerable against big men. Zeller should return five times value with solid upside if he continues to see more shots like he did on Friday night. He most likely wont be this cheap for long and is one of the stronger value plays of this four game slate.
SG/SF: Joe Ingles: (3,900) Tonight The Jazz will be without starting SG Rodney Hood who is out with a bone bruise in his right knee. Right now it’s unclear who will start in his place, but it is Ingles who has benefited the most when the SG has missed games this season. In the five games Hood has missed, Ingles is averaging a great 30.3 DK points in 33.4 minutes a game. Per game he has the highest DK +/- on the team with Hood out at 15.9 points scoring 0.9 DK points per minute.
I think we see him draw the start but even he doesn’t he should still see close to 30 minutes tonight vs The Suns who give up the 7th most DK points to SGs this year. After the games he has had already this year with Hood out, Ingles should definitely score over 20 DK points tonight playing up in pace against The Suns. (3rd in pace) With a projected ownership level of only 2-4%, Ingles is a great cheap GPP target that will help you separate yourself from the crowd in this small slate.
SG: Victor Oladipo: (5,600) Starting center Steve Adams hit his head last night and is “uncertain” for tonight’s game vs The Clippers. He didn’t return to last night’s game and most likely suffered a concussion which would more than likely keep him out of action tonight. Enes Kanter is the biggest beneficiary of this and is a must play if Adams is out, but Oladipo also has also see increases when the big man is off the floor. This season with the center off the court, he has seen his usage rise 2.3% and is averaging 29.2 DK points per 36 minutes.
He should see a few extra shots tonight in this average matchup vs The Clippers who allow the 13th fewest DK points to SGs. But even in this matchup, Oladipo is too cheap, even if Adams somehow plays. Since the new year, he is averaging 28.7 DK points per game, which is right at five times value at his current $5,600 price. He is a solid play even if we don’t have any word on Adams, but would become one of the better SG plays of night if we got confirmation that the center was out.
Also Consider: Enes Kanter (must play if Adams is out), Avery Bradley (if active), Devin Booker (tough matchup by the numbers, but slightly easier with Hood out), Domantas Sabonis (if Adams is out), Tyson Chandler, Derrick Favors, Kelly Olynyk (if active), and Jonas Jerebko/Amir Johnson (if Olynyk is out).