Welcome back guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for January 23rd, 2017. Monday night’s slate is a full slate with nine games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PF/C: David Lee: (5,500) After two great games starting in place of the injured Pau Gasol (finger), Lee has seen his price jump all the way from $3,800 to $5,500. The $5,500 price tag is fair, but he is still very much in play, especially with the DFS world slightly backing off him with this new higher salary. Right now Fantasy Labs is only projecting him to be owned between 9-12% this evening, which is great news for his GPP stock in this elite matchup vs The Nets, who play at the fastest pace in The NBA, allow the 6th most DK points to PFs, with an opponent +/- of 1.97 points. In these past two games with Gasol out, Lee has been excellent, recording back to back double-doubles, and averaging 36.8 DK points in 34.5 minutes a game.
In this span he has been great on the glass with a team high 20.9% rebound percentage. He should be all over the place against this Nets squad that gives up 56.3 rebounds a game to their opponents, which is the 2nd highest mark in the league this season. At a salary of $5,500 he needs 27.5 DK points to return five times value. In this matchup vs The Nets, barring a huge blow out (-11 SA), Lee should score over 30 DK points with upside, and is one of my favorite GPP plays of the night, that gives you exposure to this Spurs offense that has a high implied team total of 114.25 points.
SF: Wayne Ellington: (3,400) With back up PG Tyler Johnson out with a shoulder injury, Ellington played a high 35 minutes off the bench in Saturday night’s win over The Bucks. He was very effective scoring 26.75 DK points making 6/12 shots from the field. Surprisingly his usage rate didn’t rise, but he was clearly relied on more as a scorer for this second unit with Johnson out. Johnson has already been ruled out for tonight’s game vs The Warriors, which should open up around 30 minutes again for Ellington off the bench.
This is a nice matchup for him, playing up in pace vs The Warriors who rank 2nd in pace and allow the 5th most DK points to opposing SFs this year. Everything really depends on how he is shooting from the field, but at this price he only needs roughly 20 DK points to hit value. With the huge bump in minutes, he should be able to top 20 DK points, and is one of the safest punts of this slate at only $3,400.
SG: Monta Ellis: (3,400) Ellis had his best game in a while in Saturday night’s loss to the Jazz, scoring 15 points in 33 minutes off the bench. (25 DK points) The 33 minutes he played was a pleasant surprise with Ellis’ minutes being way down over the past month. After only playing over 20 minutes once since returning from an ankle injury over a month ago, Ellis is now averaging 28.3 minutes a night in his last three games. Saturday night he looked like himself taking ten shots with a 19.9% usage rate, which is a nice increase from the 13.4% average usage he has seen since his return.
This isn’t the perfect matchup for him tonight vs The Knicks who give up the 7th fewest DK points to SGs this year, but they currently have a solid opponent +/- of 1.04 points. This Knicks defense doesn’t scare me at all and if he sees similar minutes and usage as he did on Saturday, he will likely return fives time value. We all know Ellis is a much better player than his $3,400 price tag reflects it’s just a matter of how healthy he is. Saturday’s performance showed us he is close to being back to full health, and if the trends continue, I think he is worth a GPP flier tonight at this depressed price.
Also Consider: Jason Smith, Clint Capela, Sam Dekker (Anderson will return, but its hard to see Dekker going back to a small role after his 30 point outburst on Saturday), Dion Waiters, James Johnson (has been garbage the last two games, but the minutes are still there, and playing up in pace against The Warriors is a plus), Dejounte Murray/ Patty Mills (great matchup both should benefit with Manu out), Raymond Felton, Maresse Speights (if he starts again), Michael Beasley (31.5 DK points vs this same Rockets team last week), Garrett Temple, and Sean Kilpatrick (nice value, assuming he remains a starter with Harris out).