What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for January 25th, 2017. Today we get a smaller slate with only four games to attack. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 8:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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SG: Seth Curry: (4,500) Curry should be in line for all the minutes and usage he can handle tonight with PG Deron Williams (toe), PF Dirk Nowitzki (rest), PG J.J. Barea (calf), and SG Welsey Mathews (hip) all expected to be out. In the 100 minutes Curry has been on the floor this season with off all four of these players off, he has seen his usage rate rise 5.7% to 24.2%, his assist percentage sky rocket from 19.7% to 40.4%, with a team high DK +/- of 13.2 points. There is obviously no full games all of these players have missed yet this year, but with these rates, per 36 minutes, Curry is scoring 36.2 DK points a game.
He and SF Harrison Barnes will run the show for The Mavs, and I’m expecting him to log at least 35 minutes with the team this shorthanded. This is a tougher matchup with The Thunder ranking 11th vs SGs this season, but the minutes and usage outweigh the ugly matchup at his current price. At $4,500 he needs 22.5 DK points to return value, which is something he should have no problem accomplishing with the work load I am expecting. He is one of the best overall values of the night and is a hard player to fade in this small four game slate.
C: Steven Adams: (5,000) In his second game back after suffering a concussion, Adams was impressive last night vs The Pelicans, scoring 20 points to go along with 11 rebounds, four blocks, three assists, and one steal in 32 minutes (47.75 DK points). He was very aggressive, taking 16 shots with a high 27.9% usage rate, which is a 11% increase from his season average. The usage was probably just a result of a beautiful matchup vs The Pelicans, but either way he is still very underpriced again tonight at $5,000.
The matchup does a 360 tonight, going against The Mavs who rank 2nd vs centers, but regardless of the matchup he should still log 30+ minutes. Center Andrew Bogut is a tough individual match-up, but with a ton of key Mavericks out (above), this defense overall should become a weaker unit that could possibly play at a faster pace. He averages just under 1.0 DK points per minute and if he plays say 30-35 minutes, he should hit value and score 25+ DK points. There is no chance that he is this cheap next time he plays and at $5,000 he is a strong play on Thursday night.
SG: Lou Williams: (5,200) Williams is in a very tough spot tonight vs The Jazz (1st vs SGs), but his current projected ownership of 9-12% is just way too low for a small four game slate. In the last few games he has taken over as The Lakers primary ball handler and scorer, with starting PG D’Angelo Russell out (calf), and is coming off one his best games of the season last night vs The Blazers. Even though it was in a losing effort, Williams was tremendous, scoring 31 points, five assists, and four rebounds in 28 minutes off the bench, putting up a whopping 52 DK points.
This was the 15th game this season Russell has missed, and overall for the year with the PG sidelined, Williams is averaging 31.4 DK points per game with a team high usage rate of 31.6%. He is obviously playing against one of the best defenses in The NBA tonight, but he has already exposed this Jazz team this year, averaging 38.7 DK points in the three games these two teams have played this season. Tonight he should approach 30 minutes off the bench and score close to 30 DK points with upside. He is a bargain at $5,200 and is in play in all formats, especially with a slightly depressed ownership.
Also Consider: Pierre Jackson (core value at $3,000), Dwight Powell (also a great value), Harrison Barnes (usage should be high, will be highly owned), Enes Kanter, Jordan Clarkson, Ivica Zubac (scored 33 DK points last night in 28 minutes, risky but if he sees similar minutes, he should return value), Alec Burks (only if Hood remains out), P.J. Tucker, Jammer Nelson, and Justin Anderson.