How’s it going everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for January 28th, 2017. Saturday night’s slate is solid slate with seven games to attack. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PG: Darren Collison: (4,900) Collison has been on a tear, averaging 42.6 DK points in his last two games. This season he only averages 29 minutes a game, but has played 36 and 46 minutes in these last two. These minutes are inflated with both games going to overtime, but if you still knock off five minutes from each game, he is still playing 36 minutes a night, which is still a sizable increase from his season average. With SF Rudy Gay done for the year (Achilles), Collison has picked up his scoring, averaging 24.5 points with a 23.3% usage rate, which is a nice jump from his usual 13 points and 19.6% usage a night this season.
At a first glance his matchup tonight with The Hornets is a difficult one with this defense ranking 5th vs PGs, but they have been vulnerable as of late, with a high current opponent +/- of 2.21 points. Coach Joerger has been unpredictable with his rotations this season, but after the past two games Collison has had, I think he will likely see 30+ minutes again tonight. There is definitely risk here with this team coming off an overtime lose, but at a cheap price of $4,900, Collison is a very nice GPP target that has upside if he continues to log heavy minutes.
PF/C: Darrell Arthur: (3,000) With starting center Nikola Jokic out (hip), Arthur should see some extra playing time and usage tonight vs The Suns. It’s unclear who will start in Jokic’s place, but it was Arthur who came in for the final minute and half this past Thursday after Jokic got hurt. Arthur is by no means is an exciting player, but if he sees 20+ minutes tonight, he has a pretty good shot to return value at his bare minimum $3,000 price tag. This season the veteran is averaging 0.8 DK points per minute and, in the last four games he has played at least 17 minutes, he is averaging a solid 24.6 DK points a game. This isn’t the best matchup for him with The Suns ranking 11th vs centers, but they do have solid a current opponent +/- of 1.12 points.
Also this Nuggets Suns game is the best game to target tonight with a very high O/U of 231.5 points and a tight spread of only three points in favor of The Suns. I am not expecting Arthur to go off, but 15-20 DK points is a fair expectation for him. That might not seem like a much but at only $3,000 he is a very viable punt that will give you exposure to the best game environment of the night. He is still in play even if he doesn’t draw the start but is obviously much safer if he gets the starting nod. Jusuf Nurkic didn’t play in The Nuggets last game, but if he draws the start tonight, he is also in play at $4,300 with Jokic out.
SF/PF: P.J. Tucker: (4,400) Tucker has been playing all the minutes he can handle, averaging 35.25 minutes over his last four games. He has been great in this stretch averaging 26.9 DK points a game scoring 0.74 DK points per minute. This coaching staff has finally realized they need him on the court as much as possible with his ability to guard to multiple positions at a very high level. With no game last night or tomorrow, Tucker should once again see around 35 minutes tonight in this high scoring matchup with The Nuggets. (231.5 points Vegas total)
They rank right in the middle of the pack defending SFs allowing the 16th most DK points to the position, but as a whole this defense should become a weaker unit with starting center Nikola Jokic out. Both of these teams rank in the top five in pace this season, and there should be plenty of opportunities for Tucker to rack up steals, with The Nuggets giving up a high 8.4 steals a game this year. Tucker should score 25+ DK points tonight and is my favorite SF value of this seven game slate.
Also Consider: Jonas Jerebko/Jaylen Brown (both still only $3,000), Greg Monroe (burnt me last night only playing 17 minutes, but this a great spot for him vs The Celtics), Kenneth Faried, Jusuf Nurkic, Shaun Livingston/Andre Igudola (if Steph Curry is out, currently questionable), Danilo Gallinari, Wayne Ellington (nice value if Johnson remains out), Willie Reed (only if Whiteside is out), James Johnson, Arron Affalo, Spencer Hawes (if Cody Zeller is out), and Jae Crowder.