What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for January 3rd, 2017. Tuesday’s slate is nice slate with eight games to attack. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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SF/PF: James Johnson: (5,500) The Heat will be without center Hassan Whiteside, SF Justice Winslow, PF Josh McRoberts, and potentially SG Dion Waiters (questionable, groin) tonight vs The Suns. On Monday without all of these players, Johnson was relied on heavily, scoring 20 points, seven rebounds, three assists, a block, and a steal in a high 34 minutes off the bench. (37.25 DK points) His usage and assist rates should slightly go down tonight with PG Goran Dragic expected to return, but he should still be The Heats front court player who sees the most minutes with Whiteside, Winslow, and McRoberts remaining out. This season, when all three of these players are off the floor, Johnson posts a 23.4% usage rate, 19.2 assist percentage, and a 14% rebound percentage.
Tonight he should play 30+ minutes again and has great upside vs this Suns team that plays at the second fastest pace and allows the 8th most DK points to PFs this season. We have been in similar situations this year with Johnson playing up in pace and he has flourished in these opportunities, scoring 28.25 DK points vs The Thunder (9th in pace), and scoring 40 DK points vs The Lakers (6th in pace) just to name a few from the past couple of weeks. If he Johnson gets the minutes he will continue to produce averaging .98 DK points per minute this season and 1.1 DK points per minute when Winslow, Whiteside, and McRobets are out of the picture. His price has increased after back to back great games but he is still reasonably priced at $5,500 when factoring in the expected minutes in this matchup. Johnson has a solid floor of around 25 DK points with massive upside and I am comfortable with him in all formats on Tuesday night. UPDATE: Johnson is now a GTD wth an illness. If he was out Willie Reed would have to play significant minutes and would instantly become a great value at his cheap price.
PG: Reggie Jackson: (6,000) Jackson is coming off two of his best games of the season scoring 38 DK points vs The Hawks last Friday and 37 DK points vs The Heat on Sunday. He was a much more effective scorer in these two games scoring a season high 20 points vs The Hawks, then topping that with 27 points in Sunday’s game against The Heat. It’s only a slight bump but worth noting that he was more also more aggressive in these games with a usage rate of 30.1%, compared to his normal 28.7% usage rate this season.
Also his minutes haven’t been limited as of late and he has now played over 30 minutes in five straight games. I am expecting him score over 30 DK points again this evening in this perfect matchup vs The Pacers who have given up the 3rd most DK points to opposing PGs this year. Jackson, just a few weeks ago, played against this same Pacers team and was impressive scoring a season high 40.25 DK points in only 29 minutes. His price is going to go up soon but at $6,000 tonight, he is one of safest mid-tier PG options that has upside.
SG/SF: Joe Ingles: (4,000) PG George Hill is questionable for tonight’s game vs The Celtics, but he sounds closer to doubtful after just suffering a concussion on Saturday night. He didn’t play last night vs The Nets which lead to some extra playing time for Ingles off the bench, scoring 23.25 DK points in 28 minutes. Hill has missed a bunch of games this season and this wasn’t the first time, he has produce in the PGs absence. Just last week, he was averaging 26.2 DK points in 29.7 minutes in a four game stretch with Hill out. This season with Hill sidelined, Ingles has a 1.7 DK points +/- which is the second best on the team.
He isn’t a relevant play if Hill some how plays, but if Hill remains out like I’m expecting, he should play around 25-30 minutes off the bench vs The Celtics who rank 19th vs SFs this season. Boston has plenty of great wing defenders, but could be without Marcus Smart who was just recently hospitalized with a stomach virus this past Sunday. If Smart were out the matchup would be much better for Ingles, who would likely see a lot of Smart, if active, because they both come off the bench. I don’t think many people will be on him tonight and he is a nice value at $4,000 at an ugly SF position, if Hill remains out.
Also Consider: TJ McConnell (core play), Gerald Green/Terry Rozier (if Marcus Smart is out), Garrett Temple/Matt Barnes (prefer the starter if Rudy Gay or Aaron Affalo are out), Jonas Valanciunas (bump if Patterson out), Kelly Olynyk, Shabazz Muhammad, Zach Randolph (if Marc Gasol is out), Jarell Martin (if Gasol is out), Wayne Ellington (if Dion Waiters remains out), Thomas Robinson, Shelvin Mack, Jusuf Nurkic (nice value if Kenneth Faried is out, 32 DK points last night with him out), D’Angelo Russell, and Nik Stauskas (Henderson is out, should play close to 30 minutes).