What’s going on everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for January 4th, 2017. Tonight we get a solid slate with seven games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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SG: Victor Oladipo: (5,500) Oladipo is back after missing nine games with a wrist injury and has not been limited in any way, playing 29 minutes in a blowout win over The Clippers and 35 minutes vs The Bucks on Monday. In these two games he has looked like his normal self, averaging 28 DK points over these last two contests. His numbers haven’t moved at all since returning posting a 20.8% usage rate which is his exact usage average for the whole year.
This looks like an average matchup for him tonight with The Hornets allowing the 16th most DK points to SGs this season. But according to Fantasy Labs opponent +/- rankings, he is in the best situation to produce out of all the available SGs tonight, with The Hornets having a slate high opponent +/- of 2.41 points. At $5,500 he is underpriced and is one of the best mid tier targets of the night, if you choose to take the more balanced roster approach.
PF/C: Kyle O’Quinn: (3,600) Starting PF Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable for tonight’s game with an Achilles injury, but sounds unlikely to play after Head Coach Hornacek said he “might be doubtful” to the media. He is the future of this Knicks franchise and it would surprise me if they take any risks with him after his Head Coach’s comments. In Monday night’s game vs The Magic with Porzingis out, O’Quinn saw more playing time off the bench, playing 17 minutes and scoring 16.25 DK points. That obviously doesn’t seem like much, but O’Quinn is such a good fantasy producer averaging 1.15 DK points per minute that he doesn’t need to play much to hit value.
If Porzingis out again, he should play 15-20 minutes again tonight vs The Bucks who allow the 11th most DK points to opposing centers, with a solid opponent +/- of 1.38 points. At his close to minimum price tag of $3,600, he only needs close to 20 DK points to produce five times value, which is something he has shown he can easily do this season when he plays more minutes. It is an inflated number with some huge games mixed in, but, in his last five games, when he has played over 15 minutes he is averaging an impressive 33.3 DK points a game. I am not expecting over 30 DK points tonight, but I think he will likely score 20+ if Porzingis is out vs The Bucks.
PF/C: Spencer Hawes: (3,600) On Monday night with Cody Zeller out, I recommended Frank Kaminsky and even though he had an okay night 15.25 DK points based on his cheap salary, it was Hawes who saw the biggest bump in minutes with Zeller sidelined. Hawes scored 19.25 DK points in a high 26 minutes off the bench. With Zeller remaining out tonight vs The Thunder, Kaminsky could easily out score Hawes, but his price has jumped to $4,300 since Monday compared to Hawe’s $3,500 which is only a small $500 increase since their last game.
Hawes has a much better chance of returning value at his cheaper salary especially after seeing most of minutes on Monday. Tonight he should play around 20 minutes again vs The Thunder (10th vs Centers) and should be able to return at least five times value, as he is averaging 0.96 DK points a minute this season. Like O’Quinn he isn’t a very exciting play, but is currently a necessary one for this slate if you want to fit in more than one stud on Wednesday night.
Also Consider: James Johnson (great play if active, similar situation as yesterday), Willie Reed (risky play going against Cousins, but very viable if James Johnson remains out), Tyler Johnson (if active), Joakim Noah (if Porzingis out), Greg Monroe, Jamal Crawford/J.J. Redick (if Chris Paul is out), Marresse Speights, Channing Frye (if Love is out, better if LeBron plays), Deandre Liggins (if LeBron and Kyrie out), Iman Shumpert (if LeBron out), Tristan Thompson (if Love out), Elfrid Payton, Michael Carter-Williams, Steve Adams, Darren Collison (Elite value if Ty Lawson is out), Garrett Temple (if Rudy Gay remains out, also sees slight bump if Lawson out), Frank Kaminsky, and Evan Turner.