Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for March 3rd, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with ten games to attack. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know or on Twitter. Hunta512.
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SG/SF: Joe Ingles: (4,000) Tonight The Jazz will be without starting SG Rodney Hood vs The Nets due to a sore right knee. Ingles drew the start for the injured Hood on Wednesday, but was disappointing only scoring 14.25 DK points vs The Wolves. But I’m going to give him a pass on this because as a whole this Jazz team played awful, getting blown out by 27 points on their home floor. This season when Hood has been out, Ingles has been the player that has benefited the most, and before Wednesday night, he was averaging a solid 23.4 DK points per game in the past 17 games that Hood has missed. In these games Ingles has played a bigger role, averaging 30.2 minutes compared to his usual 22 minutes per game this season.
Tonight Ingles and this Jazz team should rebound nicely at home against a terrible Nets team. This is a perfect spot for Ingles, with this defense allowing the 2nd most DK points to SGs this season, with a current opponent +/- of 3.06 points. The Jazz will be playing way up in pace against this Nets team that plays at the fastest pace in The NBA this season vs The Jazz who are the slowest team in the league. (10.2 possession increase) The Jazz aren’t known for being a high scoring team, but the change in pace should be huge for their offense with Vegas giving them an implied team total of 109.75 points, which is the fourth highest team total of the night. Ingles in a starting role, should play right around 30 minutes and score 20+ DK points vs this defense. He isn’t an exciting play by any means, he is just someone who has a great shot of returning value at a cheap price in this gorgeous matchup. At only $4,000 he is a fine punt play tonight that can be utilized as either a SG or SF on DraftKings. SG Alec Burks is also viable at his bare minimum price tag, but Ingles will play more which makes him a safer play overall.
PF: Taj Gibson: (3,800) Gibson was excellent in his third game in a Thunder uniform, scoring 15 points, six rebounds, two assists, two blocks, and two steals last night vs The Blazers. (33 DK points) Domantas Sabonis started at PF, but it was Gibson who played the most minutes at the four spot, logging a high 33 minutes off the bench. He most likely will still come off the bench, but he proved to this coaching staff last night that he needs to be this team’s primary PF going forward. The Thunder did lose this game, but Gibson was one of the main reasons they were still in it at the end, making a key block, a big offensive rebound, and an assist to SG Alex Abrines for a three that put this Thunder team only behind one point with 17.7 seconds left in the game.
After his impressive effort last night he should play close to 30 minutes again in a terrific matchup vs The Suns who give up the 6th most DK points to PFs this year. Even if he plays about 25 minutes, he should still hit value at this cheap price, with him scoring 0.8 DK points per minute this season. There is also a chance that he may get the starting nod over Sabonis, which would make him an elite value at his current salary. But regardless if he starts or not, he is a one of the better values of this slate, that can be used in all formats tonight.
SF/PF: T.J. Warren: (5,800) I know I recommended Warren last night, but his projected ownership of 5-8% is just too low for how consistent he has been since the trade deadline. Last night he scored 31 DK points vs The Hornets, and he is now averaging 31.3 DK points over his last four games, and is returning 5.9 times value during this stretch. This number could be even higher if last nights game wasn’t a blow out in favor of The Suns, limiting Warren to only 27 minutes compared to the 37 minutes a night he has been logging since P.J. Tucker was traded to The Raptors. One of the main reasons he has been a great fantasy value, outside of his increase in minutes, is that he has been a better rebounder with a 11.9% rebound percentage in these last four, which is a 4.2% increase from his season average.
Tonight he should go back to logging 35+ minutes in a competitive game vs The Thunder that has a tight spread of only 4.5 points. This should be a very high scoring affair with both these teams ranking inside the top ten in pace and Vegas giving this game the highest O/U game total of the night at 225.5 points. The matchup is also solid for him with The Thunder allowing the 6th most DK points to opposing SFs this season. He should be very active in this game and score 30+ DK points tonight. With his expected low ownership, he is a great way to get exposure to this Thunder Suns game that is one the best games of the night to target.
Also Consider: Nik Stauskas (if he starts for Henderson), Alec Burks, T.J. McConnell, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Kyle O’Quinn, Enes Kanter (will be highly owned after last night, but is too good of a value to ignore), Alan Williams, Seth Curry, Brook Lopez, Jaylen Brown (nice play if this game becomes a blow out), Khris Middleton (his minutes are trending up, scored 38.75 DK points in 31 minutes last game), Tyler Johnson, and Doug McDermott.