What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA sleeper picks for March 6th, 2017. Monday night’s slate is a huge slate with 12 games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Hunta512.
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PG: Ty Lawson: (4,600) Lawson is back to being The Kings main PG, averaging 34.6 minutes per game over his last three contests. He started last night and came off the bench in the previous two games, but regardless of if he starts or not, he has been great, averaging 29.8 DK points during this stretch. He saw a bump in usage with Tyreke Evans resting last night, but his rates were still up in the prior two games, with a 21% usage rate and a 42.9% assist percentage. Evans will return tonight, but The Kings will be without SG Garrett Temple (rest), which should keep Lawson in a 30+ minute role vs The Nuggets.
The matchup couldn’t be much better for him to continue this run against a Nuggets defense that allows the 2nd most DK points to PGs this season, with a very high opponent +/- of 4.73 points. He should also benefit from playing at a faster pace with Denver ranking 8th in pace this season, which is a 3.8 possession increase for The Kings. At his current salary he needs 23 DK points to hit five times value. He should easily accomplish this with 30 point upside against this dreadful defense. Also something worth noting is that The Nuggets are Lawson’s former team that he played with from 2009-2015. Now I don’t think he is really a “revenge” type of player, but there should be some extra motivation to have a good night in front of this Denver crowd. At $4,600 he is underpriced for his current role and is a very intriguing play in all formats tonight.
PG/SG: Tim Hardaway Jr.: (5,000) Even with starting SF Thabo Seflosha back (groin), Hardaway Jr. has been scorching hot off the bench for The Hawks, scoring 43.5 DK points vs The Cavs on Friday and 35.5 DK points vs The Pacers yesterday. It has been hard for Head Coach Mike Budenholzer to keep him off the court, and he has now played 35 minutes in back to back games, which is the second most minutes on the team, only trailing PF Paul Millsap. I don’t know if it has been part of the game plan or not, but Hardaway Jr. has been extremely aggressive, putting up 18 shots per game and posting a 26.2% usage rate in these past two games.
After the numbers he has put up, it would be odd to see him not play close to 35 minutes again tonight, in a big game vs The Warriors, who have been very weak at defending SGs, giving up the most DK points to the position this season. With SF Kevin Durant out (knee), The Warriors are a different team, and Vegas is expecting this to be a very competitive matchup with The Warriors only favored by 5.5 points. If the starter-like minutes are still there for Hardaway Jr., he should score 25-30 DK points with big upside, if he remains hot. (56% from the field over these past two games) It does seem like we are somewhat chasing points here, but the high minutes have to be a sign that they want him to play more as they make their push into the playoffs. If the trends continue, he will end up being one of the best overall values of this 12 game slate, and is someone I am targeting in all formats on Monday night.
SF/PF: Nemanja Bjelica: (3,900) Bjeclica has taken full advantage of some extra playing time as of late, scoring 34.5 DK points vs The Kings, 42.25 DK points vs The Jazz, and 22.25 DK points vs The Spurs. His numbers have been solid in these three games with a 20.8% usage rate, 17.2% assist percentage, and a 14.6% rebound percentage. His minutes were slightly cut back last game, only playing 21 minutes vs The Spurs, but before this he had played 30+ minutes in back to back games.
The minute drop is a concern but even if he only plays around 20 minutes tonight, he still has a chance of returning value with the 1.05 DK points per minute he has been scoring. The matchup is perfect for him going against a Blazers defense that allows the 4th most DK points to opposing PFs this season. In this matchup he should score 20+ DK points with upside, if he goes back to playing over 30 minutes. Bjelica isn’t the safest play, but is a punt that can be used as SF or PF, that should be low owned in GPPs. (5-8% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
Also Consider: Rodney Hood, Amir Johnson/Kelly Olynyk (Al Horford is doubtful), Kosta Koufos, Willie Cauley-Stein, Pau Gasol, Aaron Gordon (boost if Vucevic is out), Mason Plumlee (only if Jokic is out), Gerald Henderson, E’Twaun Moore, Rajon Rondo (if active, Wade is out), Denzel Valentine (if Rondo is out), Lou Williams, Cody Zeller (Frank Kaminsky is out), Clint Capela, and Bismack Biyombo (elite value at $3,000 if Vucevic is out again).