Unfortunately, those guys were impossible to nail going into last night and accurately gauging some of the top value plays may get even more difficult on a huge 12-game slate to close out the regular season on Wednesday night.
There are a lot of moving pieces tonight. Several teams will be playing for seeding (some may not care) and a showdown between the Nuggets and Timberwolves will decide the final playoff spot that is up for grabs.
That feels like a good game to target, while any studs that are locked into big minutes with something to play for are very much on the table.
To help you do that, keep in mind the ongoing playoff scenarios.
The key will be locating some of the top value picks and piecing together a winning lineup. Here’s my best crack at it for GPPs on FanDuel on Wednesday night:
Note: Keep in mind these daily fantasy basketball picks only cover the main slate. FanDuel is not including the late night games on that slate.
PG: Frank Ntilikina – New York Knicks ($4.7k)
I don’t have a ton of faith in the rookie, but the Knicks handed Ntilikina 40 minutes in their last game and I see no reason not to give him serious run again tonight.
The matchup with the Cavs is favorable on paper, while the absence of both Enes Kanter and Tim Hardaway Jr. (both ruled out) opens up minutes and shots for Frank he Tank. He’s a good price and there are a lot of land mines on this slate, so I’ll take my chances here.
Goran Dragic – Miami Heat ($6.1k)
Dragic’s minutes have been down and a date with the Raptors isn’t the best, but he’s at home with a lot on the line. Not only are the Heat playing for a division title, but they can rise as high as the #6 seed if they win tonight.
I think the rewards should be enough to get Dragic over 30 minutes and I expect a solid performance out of him in this one. He hasn’t been great on the year, but he’s way too cheap given his talent, role and upside right now.
Update: Dragic is dealing with knee soreness and is now considered doubtful to play. I’d pivot to Washington’s Tomas Satoransky if John Wall sits as he’s expected to. That opens up a little salary cap to pay up a bit at SG in one spot.
SG: Gary Harris – Denver Nuggets ($5k)
This is a pure value play, as Harris is still tough to trust in just his second game back from a knee issue. He’s a risk, but he’s also really cheap in a tense battle for a playoff spot to close out the night. He’s capable of getting hot offensively, but I find it hard to believe the Nuggets won’t want him on the floor for his defense.
There isn’t a ton of value at SG tonight, so I don’t mind throwing caution to the wind here and hoping Denver wisely hands Harris more run in such a huge game.
SG: Nik Stauskas – Brooklyn Nets ($3.5k)
I don’t really trust Sauce Castillo, but you need to take some chances on the last night of the regular season. Stauskas can get hot from outside and with both Joe Harris and Spencer Dinwiddie ruled out for tonight, there’s a path to 25-30 minutes for him.
SF: Paul George – Oklahoma City Thunder ($7.8k)
LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both worth a look up top, but I’m just dropping down and eating up the value at SF tonight. First there is PG-13, who could destroy a Memphis team that he’s averaged over 51 fantasy points against this year.
OKC still has seeding to play for, so I’ll take a shot on him having a big game as the Thunder try to rise the ranks a bit.
SF: Jimmy Butler – Minnesota Timberwolves ($7.8k)
Butler feels like a must on this slate, as he provides an elite hammer to wrap this main slate up. He and his Timberwolves are playing for their playoff lives tonight and they’ll be doing so at home against the Denver Nuggets.
This game should be really good and if Butler gets handed serious run (and he should) he could blow this price tag out of the water.
PF: Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic ($6.3k)
The Magic are tough to gauge right now, but AG logged 31 minutes in his last game. Assuming Orlando doesn’t randomly sit him in their finale, he’s way too cheap based on his immense upside.
I’m rolling out a pure value-based play here, while Gordon could be up to play spoiler for a Wizards team trying to improve their seeding.
PF: Kevin Love – Cleveland Cavaliers ($8k)
I’ll eat up more value here, as Cleveland should still roll out their starters as they try to earn the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference.
It’s important for Love to get into a groove heading into the playoffs, too. After putting up 35+ fantasy points in three of his last four games, I’d be shocked to see him disappoint in a favorable matchup.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns – Minnesota Timberwolves ($10.6k)
Nikola Jokic is almost $1,000 more, so I’ll grab an elite pivot here. Towns and the T’Wolves are at home as they try to win their way into the NBA playoffs and he wasn’t bad (44 fantasy points) in this same matchup just days ago.
Something tells me KAT and company will be up for this game, while it also gives me an elite hammer to wrap up this main slate. I’d love to somehow get The Joker as well, but that’s not possible on FD.
Across the board, I’m minimizing my deep dives and just snatching up whatever value makes sense. That has me fading the big studs, but this just doesn’t feel like a slate where you can get away with stacking them – nor do you really need them.
Whether or not you’re with me tonight, hopefully some of these picks help you figure out your process and it leads you to big money. Good luck tonight!
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