Last night’s NBA DFS picks were far from perfect, but they were good enough to cash in all formats. Luka Doncic was a monster and LeBron James put up 64 fantasy points, helping you to at least double your money if you used my lineup.
If you made the right pivots, you may have even won big.
Things get crazy on Wednesday, when 12 games hit the docket. There are a lot of directions to go in tonight, so I personally won’t allow myself to go too hard on a slate this big. Instead, I take even harsher stances than usual and try to find the one team I love above all others.
This is that team over at FanDuel:
PG: Derrick Rose – Minnesota Timberwolves ($6.2k)
Rose got me 29 fantasy points in a blowout win the other night, so I can’t imagine how money of a play he’d have been if the T’Wolves played all four quarters.
He’s again looking like one of the top chalk plays in NBA DFS, as Jeff Teague won’t suit up tonight and Rose gets a decent matchup at home against a struggling Pistons squad. Rose is usually a solid try even when Teague is healthy, so I’m all about him at this solid price.
Kyle Lowry won’t play tonight, do you can also look to Fred VanVleet and save $1.1k more. I just don’t like FVV’s matchup or floor as much, so it’ll be Rose for me tonight.
PG: Russell Westbrook – Oklahoma City Thunder ($11.4k)
You will probably want at least one stud on this slate. There are five guys priced up over $10k tonight and several more close to it, so there are arguably too many elite options to simply go the balanced route.
My stud of choice is Westbrook, who draws a stellar matchup in Sacramento against a bad Kings defense. He dropped 60 fantasy points in this matchup earlier this year and is a threat to be even better on Wednesday.
The beauty here is Westbrook has been struggling as a scorer and there are other studs to pay up for, so there’s a slim chance he could go overlooked. There isn’t a better late-game hammer on the slate.
Not into Westbrook and looking to pay up elsewhere? FVV is obviously a great value to pair with Rose, while I also love a lot of intermediate options, starting with Chris Paul ($8.2k).
SG: Delon Wright – Toronto Raptors ($3.9k)
The Raptors do not have a great matchup tonight, but they’re down two key scorers and will be at home. VanVleet is the chalky play with Lowry out, so I’ll zig where others zag and hope Wright sees good run and pays off.
Let’s keep in mind that Wright gets 18-20 minutes most nights even when Toronto is fully healthy, while FVV has not been 100%. There is a chance Wright could end up playing more than people think and if so, he could return elite value.
This is my true punt for the slate, so if Wright doesn’t work out hopefully he’ll just be my lowest score that gets dropped.
SG: Eric Gordon – Houston Rockets ($4.7k)
There is a lot to like at shooting guard, but you can’t fall in love with every single player on a 12-game night. It leads to second-guessing yourself and/or playing way too much on a night that can go south in a hurry.
I’m paying down at shooting guard, largely because I don’t hate the value and I also want to spend money elsewhere. Gordon is not very reliable outside of scoring, but he’s got a good matchup at home against a bad Wizards defense.
The run is there, so if EG can pop off from outside, this could be a great value pick.
SF: Nemanja Bjelica – Sacramento Kings ($5.8k)
Okay, let’s try this again. Bjelica was uber chalk the other day and face-planted due to the Kings getting waxed, but I’ll roll him out there for a second time. He’s too cheap with his solid role and OKC actually hasn’t been great against power forwards.
I’m not expecting the world from Bjelica, but he can shoot the ball and rebound well. Something between 35-40 fantasy points isn’t as demanding as it seems.
SF: E’Twaun Moore – New Orleans Pelicans ($4.3k)
I don’t love paying down at both small forward and shooting guard, but you need to pick your spots tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo is absolutely one of the top studs to consider, while Kevin Durant ($9.2k!) is way too cheap given his upside.
That’s all true, but I’ll try to soak up value via Moore, who was back to his usual role in then mid 30’s in his last game.
He’s another guy that needs to score quite a bit to work out, but with both Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle sidelined, the Pels will need him to fire away.
PF: Anthony Davis – New Orleans Pelicans ($12.7k)
Moore is a fine value play, but The Brow feels like a must on this slate. He has a lot of heavy-lifting to do in Milwaukee tonight, where his Pels are big +8 underdogs.
Vegas could be over-selling the Bucks here just a tad, but the idea is New Orleans is in trouble if Davis doesn’t bring his A-game. I’m betting that he will.
PF: Pascal Siakam – Toronto Raptors ($6.7k)
Aaron Gordon and Draymond Green are terrific values at PF as well, but with Serge Ibaka out, I’ll look to Siakam for some salary relief.
Siakam is a solid play most nights, but he’s in for massive run in this one and one could argue he’s due for a blow-up game. To me, he’s just too cheap given his floor and upside. Indiana isn’t a good matchup, but I can’t bypass this value tonight.
C: Mohamed Bamba – Orlando Magic ($3.9k)
As you can imagine, there are a lot of fun centers to consider on a slate with 24 NBA teams in action. However, Nikola Vucevic will not be one of them due to the birth of his child, so you absolutely need to look at his rookie replacement tonight.
Bamba has yet to top 25 minutes in a game and he could have foul trouble issues against LaMarcus Aldridge, but it’s too tempting to imagine what this guy can do in a full game. He has major upside on the glass and as a shot-blocker and he’s also got an evolving offensive game.
Bamba is a lock for me, while Greg Monroe is also on the table. If you decide to pay up, though, you’d be hard pressed to find a better option than Joel Embiid (vs. Knicks).
Usually I opt for a more balanced team, but with 12 games you know a few guys are going to drop 65-80 fantasy points.
You can’t expect intermediate options to get you the points you need to get, so while that’s a fine NBA DFS strategy for some slates and even a one-off GPP, I don’t plan on employing it tonight.
Instead, I’m choosing my two favorite studs and working my way down from there. I also view Rose and Bamba as value locks, but if you disagree with any of this be sure to pivot as needed.
Either way, hopefully my NBA DFS lineup helps you in some manner tonight. Good luck and enjoy the games!