Kevin Love did me in pretty early last night due to a concussion and Ryan Anderson was a terrible value pick. Thanks to those two weaklings and the fact that I faded both Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard (both topped 72 fantasy points!), my NBA DFS picks never stood a chance.
You could have still benefited from my post last night if you picked your spots wisely, of course.
Harrison Barnes (37) was a strong intermediate option, Giannis Antetokounmpo (58) was a fine stud to roll with and Jusuf Nurkic (46) was a fantastic pivot off of the pricey center options. On top of that, I also hit on Eric Gordon (36).
Four strong picks weren’t ever going to be enough with Rando and Love combining for nine fantasy points. I loved the value with Giannis as my stud and correctly faded King James (29 fantasy points!), but surviving a double-fade of Thrillard and The Brow was never going to be easy.
It’s onward and upward for Wednesday, where NBA DFS gamers are greeted by a fun eight-game slate. Let’s dive into my favorite GPP lineup for tonight’s action at FanDuel:
PG: Shabazz Napier – Portland Trail Blazers ($3.5k)
Damian Lillard is out tonight due to the birth of his first child, so there is going to be some value via the Blazers tonight. There is some mild concern here due to Portland being on the road and playing their third game in four nights, but I’m not sure I can fade the chalk.
Napier has excelled with Thrillard off the court this year, as he sports a solid 23% usage rate and averages over 31 fantasy points per 36 minutes. His matchup with Memphis isn’t awful and he’s in for a big role tonight, so at the minimum, you’re taking a gamble if you fade him.
PG: Lonzo Ball – Los Angeles Lakers ($8.6k)
While Napier will be highly owned across most format, the other point guard slot is totally open for debate. Trey Burke and D.J. Augustin are interesting value picks, but their prices have risen to a point where I no longer deem them to be “must own” options.
I love Ball tonight. Not only is he facing a bad Mavericks team, but he is getting absurd run and is the king of peripherals these days. On top of that, he is the exact same price as Kemba Walker and there are several intermediate and value PG options to consider. Due to all of this, he feels like an elite GPP play on this slate.
SG: C.J. McCollum – Portland Trail Blazers ($7.8k)
I am never on the right side of C.J., but if you like Napier you have to like him with Lillard out tonight. Memphis isn’t the most amazing matchup, but McCollum sees a crazy 34.1% usage rate when Lillard is gone and he’s absolutely shredded (30 actual points per game) Memphis across two contests this year.
Everything looks good here, so I’m hoping McCollum’s price and poor performance last night (just seven actual points) gets people off of him. Lou Williams being the same exact price and Donovan Mitchell being on this slate could help keep ownership a little lower than some would think, too.
SG: D’Angelo Russell – Brooklyn Nets ($7.2k)
I don’t love the value at shooting guard tonight, so I’ll stay in the intermediate range and grab D’Lo, who carries monster upside in a nice matchup against a bad Magic team.
Not only is Orlando bad defensively, but Russell has shown a nice floor and monster upside lately. D’Lo dropped 51 fantasy points two games ago, but has also safely topped 30+ fantasy points in six of his last eight games.
Beyond all of this, Russell has fared well in this matchup with 36 fantasy points per game across two showdowns with the Magic this year. I’m looking for a 40-burger here.
SF: Evan Turner – Portland Trail Blazers ($3.6k)
I’m down for one more chalky Portland play, as Moe Harkless is sidelined and Lillard is obviously also out. Turner was already seeing extra run with Harkless down, but his role as a scorer and distributor should only be enhanced tonight.
Turner is rarely a sexy option, but he’s almost the minimum price and is locked into a huge role. He logged 34 minutes last night and could be in for similar court time tonight against Memphis. The Grizzlies are not the dream matchup, but Portland is offering up obvious value tonight and I find it hard to ignore it.
SF: DeMarre Carroll – Brooklyn Nets ($5.6k)
LeBron James is the top stud tonight, but I’m fading him. Not only is he just too expensive, but I just love the idea of going balanced on this slate. There are some pricey centers to also consider and Ben Simmons could go nuts, but James is really the main stud you need to hope doesn’t go off.
James was a spare last night and tonight he could be tired in Charlotte against the Hornets. He has been awesome, but I personally don’t think he’s going to crush in this spot.
That leads me to seeking value at small forward. Evan Turner is an easy pick for me, but I also like Carroll, who gets really nice run and keeps on producing for the Nets. Carroll has really turned back the clock, scoring in double figures in 12 of his last 14 games.
Carroll has turned into a very reliable NBA DFS option in the process, as he’s churned out eight 30+ fantasy point outings during that stretch. I love his matchup against a bad Orlando defense that he’s put up 33 fantasy points per game across three meetings this year.
PF: Tobias Harris – Los Angeles Clippers ($7.5k)
I love not paying for a stud on this slate, as it allows me to balance things out and get a ton of really interesting options. One of those should be Harris, who gets a killer matchup against the Phoenix Suns. Harris has been fantastic with L.A. since coming over in a trade with the Pistons and has remained safe with 32+ fantasy points in three of his last four contests.
The price isn’t amazing, but I don’t love the value behind Harris at PF tonight. I’ll pay for his versatility and this matchup, especially since it’s one he dropped a 60-burger in earlier this season.
PF: Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic ($8k)
I also love AG, who went off for 63 fantasy points in his last outing and has monster upside built into a fun showdown with the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are always a fun team to target, but Gordon is a highly versatile DFS option and has wrecked this team (51 fantasy points per game across two contests) and I’ll bet he does again tonight.
C: Marc Gasol – Memphis Grizzlies ($8.2k)
I will admit I’m not totally sold on center yet. A huge reason for that is this is the most loaded position on the board tonight. Gasol also needs to play.
He’s been a risky rest candidate on a nightly basis, but with Memphis not playing on Friday, I have to think he suits up. His matchup against Jusuf Nurkic won’t be easy, but he’s averaged over 40 fantasy points per game against the Blazers this year. I like that Gasol is at home and facing a tired team, so this looks like a fine spot to target him.
The best part is Gasol is coming off of a 50-burger performance and should go low-owned. Nobody loves rostering Grizzlies player and as stated, center is stacked. I’ll go the contrarian route here for now, barring some crazy value play opening the door to someone like Joel Embiid. I also like Nikola Vucevic for just $500 more, but I currently cannot fit him without sacrificing other spots on my roster that I love.
One move I’d be willing to make is pivot off of Harris to Kyle Kuzma. To do that, I would probably need a guarantee that Kuz (probable) will play and that Brandon Ingram (questionable) will not. I’m not even sure I’m sold on making that switch, though. An active Gasol is still very appealing and Tobias versus the Suns probably is the better play when compared to Kuz.
Overall, my base strategy tonight is fading LeBron and really anyone over $10k. This is not a late stacked with elite options, so while you do have more than enough value available to land King James, I think fading him could be the better move. From there, I’m maintaining balance with relatively safe intermediate plays that also offer upside.
Love or hate my NBA DFS picks? Let me hear it in the comments below!