Good afternoon guys, most of you will know me for my NFL daily work here at the SportsGeek and my segment on Sirius XM. A few of you will remember me from last year from my Fanduel NBA picks on the SportsBlog. I’m back again for the second half of the 2016-2017 NBA season to provide you with DFS picks to help you construct winning line ups. I will also touch on basic and advanced strategies for the NBA, to also turn you into a profitable player.
Lets take a look at tonight’s two game slate, we have the Wizards vs. Pacers and Celtics vs. the Bulls. Both games have a similar total and the favorite is favored by 3 or less tonight. The strategy for a small slate (2-4 games) is identifying the game or games you want to target, but that strategy is not quite viable tonight with the Vegas lines being so similar.
The next statistic I look at is the pace of play with each team, none of teams involved in tonight’s slate have a very fast or slow pace, so we wont really be able to take advantage of the pace of any of the teams. The reason we look at the pace of each team is to see if any team is projected a significant increase in possessions or vice versa. FanDuel prices their players based on their teams pace and in some instances we can take advantage of some players who may be under priced due to pace. For instance a player on the Mavericks who plays a lot of minutes is playing against the Nets tonight who have one the fastest paces in the NBA. If we can project an extra 10 possessions for this player on the Mavericks, then he has an opportunity to score much more points than his salary implies because of the extra offense and defensive possessions.
Next we take a look at the individual players on the slate, identifying the high priced studs that will be hard to leave out line ups. Tonight we have a few, John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, and Jimmy Butler. The reason behind identifying the high scoring players, is since its a small slate you will have a hard time finding players who can actually score you 50+ FanDuel points even as their ceiling. The number one rule I live by is do not get cute with your FanDuel NBA picks on short slates. I don’t fade the studs, differentiate yourself by fading the more volatile mid-range players.
Lets get into the plays that will by building blocks for FanDuel Tournaments tonight!
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FanDuel NBA Picks
PG – WAS – John Wall ($ 10400) – Wall is the most expensive player on the slate, but also has the highest projection of any player tonight 48.6 FD points (via Fantasy Labs). The last time these two teams played Wall torched the Pacers for 62 FD points and 40 FD points in their first match up. The Wizards have a team total of 110, which is the highest of any team tonight. Wall is pricey but he has paid of his new shiny salary of 10.4K, three times in the past 6 games. A player paying off his salary means that a player scored 5 times his salary, for example if a player cost 5,000 he would need to score a 25 FD points to pay off his salary.
Honorable Mention – Rajon Rondo
SG – IND – Monte Ellis ($ 4200) – This is probably a name you haven’t heard all season, unless its been a top of fantasy busts. Well Monte Ellis has turned it on as of late scoring 20+ FD points in 5 straight games, along with seeing 30+ minutes in his last 3. Ellis is averaging just over .6 FP/Min but is projected to play close to 30 minutes tonight, which put his projection very near the 5x value we look for when we roster a player. This is a very volatile play and wouldn’t advise playing him in cash tonight, with Smart and Beal as the safe options at SG.
Honorable Mention – Marcus Smart
C – BOS – Kelly Olynk ($ 4600) – I think the center position tonight will be the biggest difference between winning a GPP and just having a minimum cash finish. I’m looking to contrarian tonight at the Center position, and spend down for a somewhat volatile player in Olynk. He has scored 20+ FD points in 6 straights games and even dropped a 37 point game against the Utah Jazz. He shows he has the potential for a 7x value ceiling and his price is relatively cheap when you compare it to other Centers that you would consider playing.
Honorable Mention: Myles Turner
Good luck tonight guys!