gravatar

FanDuel NBA Picks – March 5th

I didn’t enjoy as much success with my FanDuel NBA DFS picks last night. Emmanuel Mudiay (5 fantasy points!) went full Mudiay on me and D’Angelo Russell (14!) sat out the entire fourth quarter.

Those two spares hurt my team quite a bit, but I did have some strong plays. Ironically enough, Bogdan Bogdanovic (36!) worked out quite well and Jabari Parker (29) was also a solid play. Anthony Davis (57) wasn’t really worth paying up for in the end, but Giannis Antetokounmpo (61) proved to be worth the investment.

Both of my studs were fine, but I needed more from The Brow based on his steep $12.5k price tag. Either way, I got burned by too many value plays on this slate and things didn’t go as planned, overall.

Let’s move on with a fun seven-game daily fantasy basketball slate on Monday night. Here’s what I came up with for GPPs at FanDuel:

PG: Terry Rozier – Boston Celtics ($4.5k)

Kyrie Irving has already been ruled out for Monday’s showdown in Chicago with the Bulls, which means Rozier will start and see a big role. Rozier has thrived in a similar spot in the past and at this price, he’s the most obvious chalk play on this slate.

The Bulls are not a bad matchup and Rozier should be looking at tons of volume. There’s no reason to pull the fade card here in any format.

PG: Lonzo Ball – Los Angeles Lakers ($7.3k)

Ball has been wrecking lately (35+ fantasy points in three straight games), yet his price remains fairly palatable. A matchup with the Blazers probably isn’t ideal, but he is playing with confidence right now and is shredding so much in the peripherals department that his erratic scoring doesn’t bother me one bit.

Obviously capping the night with Damian Lillard feels safer, but they feel like very similar plays right now. With Ball, you get a discount of $2k and can load up elsewhere.

SG: Devin Booker – Phoenix Suns ($8.2k)

Booker failed to deliver in his last outing and he’s got a road date against a stiff Miami defense, so he naturally sees his price drop a bit tonight. He’s also on a slate with Victor Oladipo and a handful of solid shooting guard options, so I’m hoping I can get him at low ownership.

Booker’s talent and volume make him matchup proof, while he previously dropped 30 actual points on Miami earlier this year.

There is some risk here, but I always love Booker’s upside and with some big studs on this slate, I think I could get him at low ownership. Considering I’m basically treating him as one of my studs, that sounds awesome.

SG: Donovan Mitchell – Utah Jazz ($7.9k)

So far I’m going into tonight with a very balanced approach. Lonzo, Rozier and Booker all seriously could deliver 40+ fantasy point and I think Mitchell can do that as well. Because of this, I don’t yet see a reason to force a stud on myself in this slate.

Mitchell has a dream matchup at home against the Magic, who are abysmal defensively (27th in efficiency) and specifically rank 26th against shooting guards. Mitchell is always a threat to get hot and pop off, too, so I’m fine with rolling with him and hoping he delivers a big outing.

SF: T.J. Warren – Phoenix Suns ($6.7k)

If you’re paying up for a stud tonight, it has to come at small forward. LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the obvious elite options on this slate, and if you need one I’ll take The Greek Freak for $1.2k cheaper.

Both of these guys are worth building around, but I love the value I can get my hands on tonight. I don’t deem them necessary for GPPs and actually think fading them both could be a winning strategy. I need guys like Warren to deliver, of course, and he should be low-owned with a seemingly tough matchup in South Beach with the Heat.

Miami does grind games down and defend well, but Warren has been piping hot (32+ fantasy points in four of his last five games) and happened to drop a respectable 27 fantasy points on Miami earlier this year. I need him to sound off more in this spot, but due to his volume and recent form, I think he can deliver.

SF: David Nwaba – Chicago Bulls ($5.3k)

I’ll also give Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow a look here, but I like the safety of David Nwaba at home. The Celtics aren’t an ideal matchup, but Boston is not as good when Kyrie Irving is out. Nwaba is locked into a starting gig and 30+ minutes, while he tends to load up on all kinds of stats.

You’re not getting an elite scorer here, but Nwaba has chipped in an average line of 9-7.6-3-2.6 line over his last three contests. That doesn’t guarantee anything for tonight, but he’s got a nice role and is not a one-dimensional option. I’m not demanding 40 fantasy points here, but I think he can push for 30+ tonight.

PF: Kyle Kuzma – Los Angeles Lakers ($5.6k)

Power forward has a long line of solid options, but one of my favorites is Kuz. Julius Randle could be popular due to a hot run, but Portland defends pretty well down low and I’m wondering if Kuzma’s perimeter-oriented game could enjoy a little more success off the bench.

Kuzma is back to getting reliable run (28+ minutes in each of his last three games) and he’s been safe as a scorer (10+ actual points) in each of his last six outings. Portland is not the dream matchup, but Kuz actually is averaging 30 fantasy points across two outings against the Blazers this year. Whether this game gets out of hand or not, I like him to get it going in this one.

PF: Blake Griffin – Detroit Pistons ($8k)

Griffin toughed out a pretty brutal stretch recently, but he roared back to life over his last two games, posting fantasy outings of 38 and 43 points. I can’t say he won’t dip down into the depths of sadness again, but things are clicking right now and he’s got a positive matchup in front of him tonight.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are still not a good defensive team and they really don’t have anyone that can shut Griffin down. In fact, the last time Griffin faced the Cavs he went off for 53 fantasy points. Griffin feels like the ideal GPP play, as there are enough options at PF to lower his ownership and he’s not so cheap that he’s a must play like he was recently.

C: Myles Turner – Indiana Pacers ($6.4k)

I’m going back and forth between Turner and Jusuf Nurkic tonight. They’re in the same price range and I think both are very viable and also strong GPP plays in terms of projected ownership.

Andre Drummond may end up garnering a lot of interest on this slate, but I don’t want to pay over $10k for him. I don’t love Rudy Gobert, Nikola Vucevic or Marc Gasol at their current price points, either, so I’m finding myself looking to save cash at center.

Turner is probably my favorite way to do that, as he has a favorable tilt at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee continues to struggle in the rebounding department and they’ve had a tough time all year (26th) against centers. Turner hasn’t exactly wrecked them this year, but he certainly has the ability to and his role (30+ minutes in two straight games) is looking good.

Overall, I’m looking for a few chalk plays, solid balanced and some intermediate value that most people won’t be in on. One massive reason for that is the presence of guys like Giannis, LeBron, Damian, Oladipo and Drummond tonight. I’m finding myself steering clear of all of them.

That doesn’t mean they can’t crush (some of them surely will), but I think my pivots can offer enough value to collectively piece together a very competitive roster. Let me know if you love/hate these picks and check back tomorrow if they help you win. Regardless, good luck tonight in your FanDuel daily fantasy basketball contests!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *