Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Pick – December 5th

The San Antonio Spurs are dead to me. I felt a +7 spread was too good to pass up against a struggling Jazz team, yet the Spurs didn’t show up and lost by over 30 points.

That marked the third time they’ve done that on the road in the last two weeks. The Spurs join the Washington Wizards on my “do not bet” list until further notice.

I was gaining some momentum after a rough patch, but that ugly loss drops me to 19-12 with my NBA picks on the year. I’ll be looking to get back on track on Wednesday night, where I’m eyeing the Dubs and their -11 point spread in Cleveland against the Cavs.

This is a huge NBA betting slate and there are a lot of games to consider targeting, but to me, this is the best bet on the board if you’re looking for a win. Let’s break it down:

Golden State Warriors (-11, -110) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (+11, -110) Total: 221.5 (-110)

You don’t get any value in betting on the Dubs to win straight up, while I can’t imagine Golden State loses to such a bad team. The only two bets I’d consider here are the Over (-110) and Golden State to cover this spread.

The Dubs were good to me in Atlanta last week when they topped a 10-point spread and this situation is very similar. The Cavs could get up to play the Dubs based on Klay Thompson’s recent comments and the fact that there is a clear history here, but the talent gap is disgustingly large.

The spread is not small, but like I noted in that Warriors/Hawks game, it could be far more obscene. Golden State’s ATS data and overall record are misleading due to the fact that they’ve spent as lot of time this year without Stephen Curry and/or Draymond Green.

I wouldn’t put too much stock in those numbers, but Cleveland has been horrid even when they were healthy.

Kevin Love remains out with a foot issue and J.R. Smith isn’t even in the rotation. Cleveland also just traded away Kyle Korver, so their veteran leadership and outside shooting takes yet another hit.

The Cavs have some solid young prospects, but realistically this team is no match for the Warriors. Cleveland is just 3-8 at home and 5-18 overall, while they haven’t exactly lit it up (4-4) ATS as home underdogs.

It would take quite a special performance to see the Cavs keep this remotely competitive and you know the last thing Golden State wants is to lose to a Cavs team that no longer has LeBron James in town.

This isn’t the sexiest play because of the matchup and spread, but the Dubs should probably be favored by something closer to 14 or 16 points. This feels like a steal at the -110 price and I’ll roll with it for what I think is an easy win.

My Pick
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