Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Pick – NBA May 11, 2022

The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies series could come to an end in Tennessee at the FedEx Forum in Game 5. Golden State is coming off a 101-98 win over the Grizzlies at home as a double-digit favorite, depending on which line you had.

After Ja Maront was announced out of the game, the public pounded the Warriors. The Warriors closed as 9.5 favorites at most sportsbooks, though I saw the spread at 10.5 earlier before tip-off.

Memphis easily covered the spread in the Bay Area, but now they’re in a 3-1 hole. It’s going to take one heck of an effort if the Grizzlies are going to come from behind to win. Winning three games against the Warriors isn’t easy in the regular season or playoffs.

Doing it consecutively in the playoffs is a daunting task. Having said that, the Grizzlies have defied expectations this season with their backs against the wall. No one anticipated the Grizzlies finishing second in the West this season.

If there’s any team that can beat the Warriors in three straight games, maybe it’s a team that no one believed in this regular season. Memphis will have to do it without Morant.

The Grizzlies weren’t bothered without Morant this season, and they played a pretty good game in Game 4, but his presence would be helpful when they need clutch shots down the stretch.

Memphis went 20-5 with Morant on the floor this season. They were more than capable, but winning without him in the playoffs is going to be tough, never mind do it three times in a row.

Morant is listed as OUT indefinitely with a knee injury after getting banged up in Game 3. The Warriors were already well ahead in the 4th quarter, and Morant was still on the floor.

That was a gamble that the Warriors probably shouldn’t have taken late in the 4th in a losing proposition. Golden State ultimately won a 142-113 final on Saturday.

Did the Grizzlies empty the tank in Game 4? It sure looked like the Grizzlies left it all out there in the Bay Area.

Memphis will have to dig deep and ride the wave of the home crowd at FedEx Forum. They’ve beaten the Warriors once at home in this series, with a 106-1 win in Game 2. The defense must have the same aggressiveness.

Head below for our free Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 4 prediction on May 11, 2022.

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Golden State Warriors -4 (-110) -180 Over 219 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies +4 (-110) +150 Under 219 (-110)
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Team Data Golden State Warriors Memphis Grizzlies
Overall Record 59-31 61-31
ATS Record 45-42-4 58-33-1
Away/Home Record 24-21 33-13
ATS Away/Home 19-24-2 30-16-0
Points Per Game 111.0 115.6
Points Against Per Game 105.5 109.9
Field Goal % 46.9 46.1
Three Point % 36.4 35.3

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 5 Prediction:

The Grizzlies can win without Morant, but again, the extra gear in the playoffs goes through him. In their Game 2 win, Morant shouldered the load with 47 points. The Grizzlies needed that win, and Morant went off to prevent going down 0-2 heading to California.

There is going to be a point in this one where the Grizzlies are going to need Morant. However, he’s not going to be sitting in street clothes on the bench.

If the Warriors can go on a scoring run, doubt is going to creep in for the Grizzlies. That’s when this game can get out of reach for the Grizzlies and there won’t be Morant to save them.

That’s not to say the Grizzlies are a bad team in his absence. Again, look at their record without him in the lineup. They can win, but the Warriors in playoff mode with a chance to close them out is different than a regular season matchup.

Stephen Curry scored 32 points and 8 assists in Game 4. He hasn’t had to do this alone with Jordan Poole such a luxury off the bench, though.

The Grizzlies are a quality team without Morant in the lineup, but the biggest concern is depth against a team like the Warriors. Golden State can go to their bench and send Poole on the floor.

Depth wasn’t as much of a problem with an active Morant for Memphis, though they don’t match up well in that regard now. There are many weapons at the Warriors’ disposal.

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Betting Trends:


  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games on the road
  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games
  • 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games in the semifinal
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games after a win
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games on the road versus a team with a winning record
  • 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games on a Wednesday


  • 7-15 ATS in their previous 22 games as an underdog
  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games versus the Warriors
  • 13-4 ATS in their previous 17 games after a loss
  • 17-7-1 ATS in their previous 25 games as an underdog
  • OVER is 7-3 in their previous ten games
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five games

The trends point to the Grizzlies in Game 5 at home. The points probably look attractive on the home dog as well. However, are the oddsmakers on to something here?

Golden State won at home against the Morant-less Grizzlies by 3 points. Now, the oddsmakers have the Warriors as a 4-point favorite on the road in a must-win spot for Memphis?

On paper, the Grizzlies make sense plus the points at home. The line is telling you that this series is done on Wednesday night, though.

Golden State scored a terrible 38 points in the first half. The Grizzlies stayed in Game 4 thanks to a horrible shooting half from the Warriors. This was all the Warriors failing to hit open shots, not a great defense.

They poured it on in the 4th quarter for 39 points and weren’t being stopped when the gas was on. Memphis missed a big opportunity in that one after the Warriors couldn’t buy a bucket in the first half.

Openings like that on a bad shooting night only happen rarely against the Warriors. I’m going with Golden State to beat the Grizzlies and the public with a win and cover tonight in Game 5.


Warriors vs. Grizzlies Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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