Grizzlies vs. Heat Pick NBA – December 13th

The Spurs dominance over their former assistant, Coach Bud, continued last night as they went into Atlanta and pummeled the Hawks. The win pushed us to a nice tidy 8-2 ATS over our last ten NBA picks (and that darn half-point back-door Jazz blown cover, ugh) for a nice little early season run. Let’s try to cap off a nice week in style with a Sunday evening winner.

Meanwhile, ding-dong the streak is dead. It ended not with a bang but with a wimper, as the simply-exhausted Warriors rolled their out-of-gas bus into Milwaukee for their seventh straight road game, the back-end of a back-to-back following a DOUBLE overtime game and their seventh road game in 12 days. I suppose there is a reason why NO TEAM in NBA HISTORY has swept a seven game road trip. Crazy, right? If there was ever a better argument for shortening the regular season to 65-70 games, that is it right there. Of course, it will never happen, and until it does, we will keep exploiting the schedule as the primary reason to bet for/against a team on certain nights…

Hell of a run though, right? Insane. And now the “Can the Dubs win 73 talk” can start heating up once they rip off another 10-12 game streak. Don’t be surprised to see them drop another prior to Christmas as they start to sneak in a little much needed rest.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat -3 (got it at -2.5 on a few sites right after hitting publish)

I’ve faded the heat twice this week and cashed both tickets. However, I do not “hate the Heat” as someone suggested to me. I merely thought their record was inflated due to a disproportionate number of home games. And I’ve been right. But it doesn’t mean they can’t compete in the crowded glut for second and third best team in the East honors. And tonight, they head back to home sweet South Beach home.

The Grizzlies enter fresh off a big loss to Charlotte Friday night and having alternated wins and losses for the entire month of December. SO the pattern says they win tonight. But the numbers and analysis don’t agree quite so simply. Miami has lost three straight games, but they return home tonight and are expected to be at full strength, which is always something you need to check before dropping any wagers on the 2015-2016 edition of the Heat.

Is it as simple as just heading home? It very well could be. Miami is 10-4 at home and averaging 99.0 points per game. They are 2-5 on the road and that average plummets to a frightening 88.1 ppg. I expect them to cut down on some of the turnovers tonight back home and score effectively. Memphis is known as a fearsome defensive team, but the numbers this year say otherwise. They are just 25th in defensive efficiency. Miami is second. Much of the Grizz reputation is residual and pace-of-play driven. The truth is, they aren’t a very good defensive team anymore. That’s not a great recipe when heading into a road gym for a good team a little chapped about their current three-game slide.

Look for Miami to win at home and to score triple digits.

Free Pick: Miami Heat -3 (shop for -2.5 – the line is out there)