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Heat vs. Cavs Pick NBA – Feb 24th

It was another winning night at thesportsgeek.com, running our NBA winning streak to four games and the overall record to 8-2 ATS over the last ten picks.  It wasn’t a night full of fantastic matchups, but there were a few impressive performances.

It’s getting rote at this point to write about how amazing Lebron James is playing.  The Heat won their tenth straight game and Lebron notched his 35th career triple-double in the process.  As impressive as Indiana has been playing, it is starting to look like the East is foregone conclusion.

The NBA has a nice full Sunday schedule today with nine games in action, so let’s get to today’s free picks…

A couple words of quick caution before today’s pick.  The Memphis v. Brooklyn line just posted as Memphis -2.5 on the road, based largely on Joe Johnson being out for the Nets but Deron Williams being listed as ‘questionable.’  I’d wait to see his status before wagering if you like Memphis, as that line will shrink if he is cleared to play.  However, if you like Brooklyn even without Williams, get in now.  Me?  I like to wager, not guess, so I’m going to steer clear of this one, despite how tempting it is to get points at home with Brooklyn…

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat -13

As great as the Heat are, and as great as Lebron has been playing, they blow teams out in their home gym a lot less often than you’d think they would.  Over their last ten home games only two wins have been by more than 13 points.   Six of the games have been settled by seven or less, including a 99-94 home win over lowly Charlotte.  Perhaps it is that they reserve some energy for the big games, perhaps it is a wise move by Spolstra to conserve some energy and minutes for his stars, but whatever it is, the Heat don’t often put the pedal all the way down and run teams over.

However, in order to cover a huge 13 point spread, that’s exactly what they’ll have to do tonight.  I have little doubt Miami wins, and I doubt it will be a real tense game.  I just don’t think they blow them away by 25-plus.  It feels like it will be a more leisurely, methodical Heat victory tonight.

Plus, don’t discount the Kyrie Irving factor (whom James gushed about to the media all All-Star weekend, fueling “will Lebron go back to Cleveland” talk all over sports radio).  Irving is playing fantastic and will be motivated to show his new All-Star friends just how good his game really is.  I like them to hang around a little big early and keep this one JUST close enough to cover the spread.

Free Pick:  Cleveland Cavaliers +13