Heat vs. Mavericks Pick NBA – Feb 3rd

We notched a second straight winner with Portland easily handling the stumbling road-weary Bucks a double-digit defeat. Hopefully you daily fantasy players snapped up C.J. McCollum as well, as he went off against the guard defense-deficient Bucks for a 30/6/4 monster stat line.

It also appears the Spurs missed Old Man Riverwalk more than some might have posited. They have dropped two of their last four… though one could easily surmise that losing to the Cavaliers and Warriors might have just as easily occurred anyway. It makes for even more interest around the Warriors return trip to San Antonio on March 19th. Until then? Whether or not there is any drama in the West will have to be left to individual supposition.

Tonight is a busy night in the NBA with 11 games on the slate. There isn’t a definitive ‘must-see’ game tonight, though the Warriors on the road is always interesting to see if someone can slow them down, and it’s intriguing the see if this Cavalier resurgence is legit improvement – they are big favorites on the road despite Charlotte’s 16-8 home mark this season.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks -4

The Mavericks get a bit of a scheduling break tonight as they catch Miami on the backend of a road back to back, fresh on the heels of a tough loss to Houston last night.   But, that scheduling break might be negated by the fact that Dallas, an already old and injury-riddled team, is flat out exhausted. Tonight is their fifth game in seven days and to make matters even worse, they will likely be without point guard Deron Williams. Devin Harris, who is also well past his prime, will likely get the start in his place.

The easy narrative is that the Heat would struggle in back to back games. After all, they are an older team with injury history. But the actual truth is that Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have been GOOD on back to backs this season and the Heat in general have covered more often than not.

The Heat have also enjoyed playing Dallas. They routed them a month ago in one of their best performances of the season. Dallas will have revenge on their mind, but with fatigue and injurioes mounting, it might not be as simple as just effort.

I like Miami to play well on the road. It’s a back to back, but the Houston/Dallas commute isn’t nearly as brutal as most roadies. It’s pretty standard fare, and I don’t expect them to be worse for the wear. Plus, in overall schedule fatigue, their back-to-back is benign compared to five games in seven days.

I’ll take Miami to bounce back tonight and cover, if not win outright.

Free Pick: Miami Heat +4